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Proliferation

Policy Analysis on Proliferation

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Iranian sailors on board a naval vessel in the Strait of Hormuz
Brief Analysis
Iran and Israel’s Undeclared War at Sea (Part 1): IRGC-Hezbollah Financing Schemes
Recent maritime escalation between the two countries stems mainly from Iranian efforts to fund Hezbollah, underscoring the financial interdependency between the Lebanese militia, Tehran, and the Syrian regime.
Apr 6, 2021
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  • Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
Yemen’s “Southern Hezbollah”: Implications of Houthi Missile and Drone Improvements
As the Iran-backed rebels make further range leaps that bring them closer to reaching Israel and other countries, the United States needs to start viewing them as a proliferation challenge beyond Yemen’s civil war.
Apr 1, 2021
◆
  • Michael Knights
Nuclear warhead schematics from the Manhattan Project, 1945
Brief Analysis
Iranian Nuclear Breakout: What It Is and How to Calculate It
With a basic knowledge of uranium enrichment and an interactive spreadsheet, governments and even the public can quickly work out how close Tehran may be to a nuclear weapon.
Mar 24, 2021
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  • Simon Henderson
Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, speaking
Brief Analysis
Khamenei Continues Playing Hardball in Nowruz Speech
Far from compromising his nuclear position, the Supreme Leader keeps asserting that Iran can neutralize sanctions and solve its economic challenges on its own, both by leveraging domestic capabilities and demonstrating the people’s supposed electoral support for the regime.
Mar 22, 2021
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  • Omer Carmi
Brief Analysis
Continued Houthi Strikes Threaten Saudi Oil and the Global Economic Recovery
Saudi Arabia used what Congress might consider “offensive weapons” to successfully defend major oil terminals, but a much more devastating attack is inevitable if Houthi missile and drone attacks persist.
Mar 12, 2021
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  • Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
Addressing Iran’s Weaponization Work Will Fortify the Nuclear Deal
Allowing Tehran to whitewash its nuclear activities and sites would set a terrible precedent for other nations who might be tempted to pursue a covert weapons program.
Mar 9, 2021
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  • Jay Solomon
U.S. and Israeli flags
Brief Analysis
Israel Braces for U.S. Revival of the JCPOA
The best approach for both governments is to internalize lessons from 2015 and enter a comprehensive, discreet discussion focusing on constructive ideas and realistic outcomes.
Feb 22, 2021
◆
  • Michael Herzog
Russian president Vladimir Putin and foreign minister Sergei Lavrov
Articles & Testimony
Don’t Expect Russia to Help Save the Iran Deal
In seeking to salvage the JCPOA, Biden should not assume cooperation from Moscow, but instead focus on building a unified strategy that strengthens the U.S. negotiating position.
Feb 16, 2021
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Articles & Testimony
Biden’s Iran Dilemma
Tehran’s nuclear and regional activities are part of a single strategy that aims to paralyze stronger foes, so Washington’s policies for responding to each challenge should likewise overlap considerably.
February 2021
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  • Michael Singh
Brief Analysis
Iran’s New Narrative: The Regime Is Not in a Hurry, But Washington Should Be
By steadily implementing parliament’s anti-JCPOA law and making public statements about “cornered cats” and “closing windows,” Tehran has sought to give Washington a sense of urgency, but this approach could be a double-edged sword.
Feb 11, 2021
◆
  • Omer Carmi
Gideon Saar
Video
Brief Analysis
New Leadership for Israel? A Conversation with Gideon Saar
The New Hope party leader and former Likud minister discusses why he is running in Israel’s March election, how his policies differ from Netanyahu’s, and what his approach will be on key issues such as the Middle East peace process and the Iranian nuclear challenge,
Feb 10, 2021
◆
  • Gideon Saar
Brief Analysis
Khamenei Sets Conditions for Iran to Resume Its Nuclear Commitments
By stating initial terms that he knows Washington will not meet right now, the Supreme Leader is once again signaling his lack of interest in returning to full JCPOA compliance—at least not before President Rouhani leaves office in August.
Feb 8, 2021
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  • Mehdi Khalaji
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Flexible Fatwa: How “Expediency” Shapes Nuclear Decisionmaking
The main lesson of the nuclear fatwa is that Tehran’s national security decisions are guided by interests, not ideology, and that progress in negotiations is possible if framed in terms of "regime expediency."
Feb 4, 2021
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  • Michael Eisenstadt
  • Mehdi Khalaji
Iranian military leaders inspect drones.
Brief Analysis
Drones Over Riyadh: Unpacking the Iran Threat Network’s Tactics
Two enigmatic drone incidents in Saudi Arabia point to gaps in U.S. intelligence coverage and increasingly sophisticated deception tactics by Iran’s integrated militia networks in Iraq and Yemen.
Jan 29, 2021
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  • Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
What Did the Confirmation Hearings Reveal About Biden’s Middle East Policy?
Antony Blinken, Avril Haines, and Lloyd Austin responded at length to congressional questions about the Iran nuclear deal, the Yemen war, Arab-Israel normalization, and other pressing regional issues.
Jan 22, 2021
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  • Ilari Papa
Articles & Testimony
Biden Doesn’t Need to Rush Back into the Iran Nuclear Deal to Defuse Tensions
Less could be more when negotiating with Tehran.
Jan 19, 2021
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  • Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
How Might Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” Test Biden?
The new administration could face an Iranian military strike as early as inauguration day, along with multiple threats from the Assad regime, Hezbollah, and other actors down the road, all requiring clear demonstrations of U.S. resolve.
Jan 15, 2021
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  • Michael Eisenstadt
  • Christine McVann
Brief Analysis
Deciphering Iran’s Latest Nuclear Messaging
Tehran will continue maneuvering to secure a favorable new nuclear deal with the Biden administration, likely using a combination of bluffs and escalation.
Jan 14, 2021
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  • Simon Henderson
Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei delivers public remarks.
Brief Analysis
Khamenei’s First Speech of 2021: Reemphasizing U.S. Weakness, Iranian Self-Reliance
Although the Supreme Leader left room for Biden to return to the nuclear deal and dialed down the vengeful rhetoric, his main message was that Iran cannot trust Washington when it comes to economic matters, security issues, or even coronavirus vaccines.
Jan 8, 2021
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  • Omer Carmi
Iran warhead on Iran map
In-Depth Reports
The Coming Iran Nuclear Talks:
Openings and Obstacles
A reimagined approach to Iran nuclear talks could extend the country’s breakout time, preserve U.S. negotiating leverage, and strengthen American alliances in Europe and across the Middle East.
Jan 5, 2021
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  • Dennis Ross
◆ Transition 2021

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Featured experts

Patrick Clawson
Patrick Clawson
Patrick Clawson is Morningstar senior fellow and director of research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Michael Singh
Michael Singh
Michael Singh is the Managing Director and Lane-Swig Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute.
Simon Henderson
Simon Henderson
Simon Henderson is the Baker fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy at The Washington Institute, specializing in energy matters and the conservative Arab states of the Persian Gulf.
Henry Rome
Henry Rome
Henry Rome is a Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, specializing in Iran sanctions, economic, and nuclear issues.
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