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North Africa

Policy Analysis on North Africa

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Brief Analysis
Egypt Endorses Gulf Reconciliation But Remains Skeptical
Although officials are playing along in order to maintain good ties with Saudi Arabia, they seem convinced that Qatar will exploit the new agreement in ways that harm Cairo's political and security interests at home.
Jan 14, 2021
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  • Haisam Hassanein
Brief Analysis
UAVs and the Abraham Accords: New Horizons for Sinai Peacekeeping
Replacing manned monitoring missions with drone sorties and inviting Gulf countries to participate would help improve security, reduce America’s burden and risk, decrease costs, and bolster the regional peace architecture.
Jan 13, 2021
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  • Assaf Orion
Brief Analysis
Enough Theory, European Strategic Autonomy Needs Practice in the Middle East
Libya, Iraq, and the Strait of Hormuz provide three test cases where greater assertiveness and transatlantic cooperation could go hand in hand, but only if European countries receive genuine U.S. support to step up their operational efforts and diplomatic engagement.
Jan 6, 2021
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  • Charles Thépaut
  • Pierre Morcos
Articles & Testimony
Erdogan Will Play Biden, But Stick to Putin
The new U.S. administration will have a brief, early window to exert leverage, but Erdogan’s asymmetric relationship with Moscow may keep him from substantially altering Turkish policy on the S-400 dispute and regional issues.
Dec 9, 2020
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  • Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
A Matter of History, Diasporas, Diplomacy and Security: French Foreign Policy Drivers in MENA
French decisionmaking in Lebanon, Libya, Iraq, Syria, and other regional states is shaped by an adaptive but strategically consistent mix of security interests, economic relations, diplomatic activism, and cultural outreach.
Nov 23, 2020
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  • Charles Thépaut
Brief Analysis
Cairo’s Concerns About a Biden Presidency
Egyptian leaders fear that his administration will openly confront them on human rights and enable an Islamist resurgence, but the outlook is brighter for engagement on Turkey, Israel, and other issues.
Nov 18, 2020
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  • Haisam Hassanein
Brief Analysis
Violence Erupts in Western Sahara
If the long-frozen conflict descends into full-blown war, it would undermine U.S. interests in one of the few relatively stable corners of the Arab world.
Nov 17, 2020
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  • Sarah Feuer
Video
Brief Analysis
Terrorism in France: New and Old Trends in Jihadism
Three experts on European jihadism discuss the root causes and operational significance of recent Islamist violence in France.
Nov 13, 2020
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  • Laurence Bindner
  • Hugo Micheron
  • Aaron Zelin
Brief Analysis
The Sudan Agreement: Implications of Another Arab-Israel Milestone
The latest deal shows how firm U.S. pressure, quiet contacts with Israel, and domestic political breakthroughs can help Arab governments advance normalization even in the face of popular opposition and past military conflict.
Oct 26, 2020
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  • Ehud Yaari
Articles & Testimony
Bandar Speaks Out: The Changing Landscape in the Mideast
Palestinian leaders previously never had to acknowledge their mistakes or account for missed opportunities, preventing them from learning critical lessons and adjusting their behavior.
Oct 19, 2020
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  • Dennis Ross
Video
Brief Analysis
Arabs Taking Risks for Peace: Stories from the Frontlines of People-to-People Contact with Israelis
Courageous Arab civic actors discuss the enormous hurdles they have faced in engaging with Israelis and supporting broader social and legislative normalization.
Oct 8, 2020
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  • Ismail Sayyid Ahmad
  • Sukina Meshekhis
  • Ahdeya Ahmed Al-Sayed
  • Mohamed Al-Hammadi
  • Joseph Braude
Articles & Testimony
Franco-Turkish Competition Ascendant
Given their sharply diverging views on conflict zones, secularism, and regional spheres of influence, the two states are swiftly becoming NATO’s next diplomatic hotspot.
Sep 23, 2020
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  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Beyond the Ceasefire in Libya
Publicly committing to a ceasefire is a positive development, but many details still need to be resolved with active U.S. support, especially security arrangements in central Libya and the speedy resumption of oil exports.
Aug 25, 2020
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  • Anas El Gomati
  • Ben Fishman
Articles & Testimony
The Role of Russian Private Military Contractors in Africa
Moscow’s growing use of international legal loopholes in Libya, Sudan, and other countries gives it a worrisome template for chipping away at the global order without confronting the United States directly.
Aug 21, 2020
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Brief Analysis
New Egyptian Legislation Aims to Reduce Al-Azhar’s Authority
The latest twist in the long battle for control over Egypt’s religious realm could have profound implications for the state’s ability to regulate—and thus reform—Islamic discourse.
Aug 20, 2020
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  • Sarah Feuer
Brief Analysis
Normalization Is Making Cairo Uncomfortable
The UAE’s deal with Israel may render Egypt a junior partner in future peace diplomacy, aggravating its existing frustration over years of financial dependence on the small Gulf state and a string of foreign policy setbacks.
Aug 19, 2020
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  • Haisam Hassanein
Articles & Testimony
Turkey’s Search for Oil May Spill Over into Conflict with Greece
The current flare-up centers on differing interpretations of international law—a situation that should be employing lawyers but is instead deploying navies.
Aug 12, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Moscow and Ankara Will Continue Uneasy Cooperation
Putin set a trap for Erdogan long ago, and because the Turkish leader woke up too late to his predicament, he now has little leverage in the unequal bilateral relationship.
Aug 6, 2020
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Brief Analysis
East Mediterranean Energy Rivalries Face Harsh Economic Realities
Even if acute diplomatic differences are resolved, low natural gas prices will have a cooling effect on regional energy initiatives.
Jul 17, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Russia Looks to Long Term While Navigating Libya Chaos
Moscow has intervened for self-serving reasons and claims neutrality despite clearly picking a side.
Jul 17, 2020
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya

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