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North Africa

Policy Analysis on North Africa

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Brief Analysis
Reframing Libya for a Reluctant Administration
By treating the conflict as a matter of Mediterranean security, President Biden’s team can better assist the new Libyan government and demonstrate its commitment to revitalizing alliances.
Feb 25, 2021
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  • Ben Fishman
Tunisian protesters in 2011
Brief Analysis
The Tunisian Jihadist Movement Ten Years After the Prisoner Amnesty
Security issues won’t top Tunisia’s agenda in 2021, but the sheer volume of citizens mobilized into the jihadist milieu over the past decade suggests that the consequences will be felt for years to come.
Feb 19, 2021
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  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Northwest Africa map
In-Depth Reports
Seizing Opportunities and Strengthening Alliances in Northwest Africa: Ideas for Policy Toward Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia
Transition 2021
Modest invest­ments of U.S. diplomatic capital, economic aid, and security assistance can help these three countries and advance American interests.
Feb 3, 2021
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  • Robert Satloff
  • Sarah Feuer
Articles & Testimony
Tunisians of the Iraq Jihad and How That Set the Stage for the Syrian Jihad
The disproportionate role of Tunisians in both campaigns can be traced to a wide array of factors, including travel routes, prison experiences, battlefield leadership, and propaganda patterns back home.
Jan 29, 2021
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  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Map of Israeli bilateral relationships with Arab states
In-Depth Reports
Building Bridges for Peace: U.S. Policy Toward Arab States, Palestinians, and Israel
Transition 2021
The Biden administration can succeed by strengthening and expanding Israeli normalization with Arab states and pursuing gradualism on the Palestinian issue.
Jan 26, 2021
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  • David Makovsky
Egyptian president Sisi is sworn in to a second term in Parliament in 2018.
Brief Analysis
Egypt’s New Parliament: Reopening Political Life, But Only So Far
Giving the legislature a makeover is Cairo’s latest bid to ease public frustrations, but will a token opposition be enough to keep socioeconomic tensions from boiling over?
Jan 26, 2021
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  • Haisam Hassanein
Brief Analysis
Riots Erupt in Tunisia
Growing unrest in the birthplace of the Arab Spring could translate into serious instability for the young democracy, with potential repercussions beyond its borders.
Jan 22, 2021
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  • Sarah Feuer
Brief Analysis
Egypt Endorses Gulf Reconciliation But Remains Skeptical
Although officials are playing along in order to maintain good ties with Saudi Arabia, they seem convinced that Qatar will exploit the new agreement in ways that harm Cairo's political and security interests at home.
Jan 14, 2021
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  • Haisam Hassanein
Brief Analysis
UAVs and the Abraham Accords: New Horizons for Sinai Peacekeeping
Replacing manned monitoring missions with drone sorties and inviting Gulf countries to participate would help improve security, reduce America’s burden and risk, decrease costs, and bolster the regional peace architecture.
Jan 13, 2021
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  • Assaf Orion
Brief Analysis
Enough Theory, European Strategic Autonomy Needs Practice in the Middle East
Libya, Iraq, and the Strait of Hormuz provide three test cases where greater assertiveness and transatlantic cooperation could go hand in hand, but only if European countries receive genuine U.S. support to step up their operational efforts and diplomatic engagement.
Jan 6, 2021
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  • Charles Thépaut
  • Pierre Morcos
Articles & Testimony
Erdogan Will Play Biden, But Stick to Putin
The new U.S. administration will have a brief, early window to exert leverage, but Erdogan’s asymmetric relationship with Moscow may keep him from substantially altering Turkish policy on the S-400 dispute and regional issues.
Dec 9, 2020
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  • Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
A Matter of History, Diasporas, Diplomacy and Security: French Foreign Policy Drivers in MENA
French decisionmaking in Lebanon, Libya, Iraq, Syria, and other regional states is shaped by an adaptive but strategically consistent mix of security interests, economic relations, diplomatic activism, and cultural outreach.
Nov 23, 2020
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  • Charles Thépaut
Brief Analysis
Cairo’s Concerns About a Biden Presidency
Egyptian leaders fear that his administration will openly confront them on human rights and enable an Islamist resurgence, but the outlook is brighter for engagement on Turkey, Israel, and other issues.
Nov 18, 2020
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  • Haisam Hassanein
Brief Analysis
Violence Erupts in Western Sahara
If the long-frozen conflict descends into full-blown war, it would undermine U.S. interests in one of the few relatively stable corners of the Arab world.
Nov 17, 2020
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  • Sarah Feuer
Video
Brief Analysis
Terrorism in France: New and Old Trends in Jihadism
Three experts on European jihadism discuss the root causes and operational significance of recent Islamist violence in France.
Nov 13, 2020
◆
  • Laurence Bindner
  • Hugo Micheron
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
The Sudan Agreement: Implications of Another Arab-Israel Milestone
The latest deal shows how firm U.S. pressure, quiet contacts with Israel, and domestic political breakthroughs can help Arab governments advance normalization even in the face of popular opposition and past military conflict.
Oct 26, 2020
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  • Ehud Yaari
Articles & Testimony
Bandar Speaks Out: The Changing Landscape in the Mideast
Palestinian leaders previously never had to acknowledge their mistakes or account for missed opportunities, preventing them from learning critical lessons and adjusting their behavior.
Oct 19, 2020
◆
  • Dennis Ross
Video
Brief Analysis
Arabs Taking Risks for Peace: Stories from the Frontlines of People-to-People Contact with Israelis
Courageous Arab civic actors discuss the enormous hurdles they have faced in engaging with Israelis and supporting broader social and legislative normalization.
Oct 8, 2020
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  • Ismail Sayyid Ahmad
  • Sukina Meshekhis
  • Ahdeya Ahmed Al-Sayed
  • Mohamed Al-Hammadi
  • Joseph Braude
Articles & Testimony
Franco-Turkish Competition Ascendant
Given their sharply diverging views on conflict zones, secularism, and regional spheres of influence, the two states are swiftly becoming NATO’s next diplomatic hotspot.
Sep 23, 2020
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  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Beyond the Ceasefire in Libya
Publicly committing to a ceasefire is a positive development, but many details still need to be resolved with active U.S. support, especially security arrangements in central Libya and the speedy resumption of oil exports.
Aug 25, 2020
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  • Anas El Gomati
  • Ben Fishman

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