Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Profile: Ansar Allah al-Awfiya (19th PMF Brigade)

Ansar Allah al-Awfiya is one of the top Iraqi proxies for IRGC Quds Force, a Sadrist breakaway faction that has long garrisoned the Iraq-Syrian border and which has killed Iraqi protestors to demonstrate its loyalty.

Nov 27, 2023

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Ameer al-Kaabi
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh greets Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran in June 2023 - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

The Hamas-Iran Relationship

As details emerge of potential direct links to the attack on Israel, one thing is clear: Hamas would not have been able to plan and conduct such an operation without years of Iranian training, Iranian weapons, and hundreds of millions of dollars in Iranian funding.

Nov 2023

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Matthew Levitt

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Militia Hair-Pulling Over Who Are The Truest Muqawama

Given a couple of days of Gaza-related ceasefire, muqawama leaders went back to old habits of diminishing each other and spilling their secrets, with interesting results

Nov 26, 2023

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Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Photo of an October 2023 Iraqi demonstration with footprints covering the Israeli and American flags.

Articles & Testimony

Iraq’s Delicate Balancing Act With Iran and the U.S.

Despite reassuring U.S. officials during recent meetings, it is unclear whether Prime Minister Sudani can indefinitely placate an angry public or prevent Tehran’s militia proxies from further escalating the situation.

Nov 19, 2023

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Bilal Wahab

Photo of a blast wall with a drone mural at al-Asad Air Base in Iraq.

Video

Brief Analysis

Iranian Escalation in Iraq and Syria: Implications and U.S. Options

Four experts discuss what Washington can do about the latest spike in militia attacks against U.S. bases and local partners—even as they try to sustain the counterterrorism mission against the Islamic State.

Nov 17, 2023

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Michael Knights
Wladimir van Wilgenburg
Devorah Margolin
Andrew J. Tabler

In Iranian Khordad-15 air-defense missile launcher - source: Wikimedia Commons

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Iran Potentially Expanding Its Air Defense Axis in Lebanon and Syria

Tehran is seemingly redoubling its efforts to equip Hezbollah and other regional allies with advanced air defense systems, which could affect Israeli and U.S. calculations in the Gaza war and beyond.

Nov 15, 2023

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Farzin Nadimi

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Kataib Hezbollah and the Gaza Crisis (Part 2): Israel's Incursion, Khamenei-Nasrallah Speeches, and Blinken's Visit

Hossein Moanes and Abu Fadak have carefully calibrated their threats, showing a multifaceted yet tightly controlled Kataib Hezbollah response.

Nov 7, 2023

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Michael Knights
Amir al-Kaabi

◆ Militia Spotlight

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Potential Escalation in Iraq (Part 2): Asaib and Nujaba

Asaib Ahl al-Haq, Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, and their facade group partners may soon step up their attacks amid the Hamas-Israel war, albeit within limits set by Iran.

Nov 1, 2023

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Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith
Ameer al-Kaabi
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Potential Escalation in Iraq (Part 1): Khamenei and Badr

Iraqi "resistance" elements are becoming more bellicose in their rhetoric against the American presence, signaling a new level of escalation against U.S. troops as part of their efforts to support Hamas in the Gaza war.

Nov 1, 2023

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Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights
Crispin Smith
Ameer al-Kaabi

◆ Militia Spotlight

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Profile: Liwa al-Baqir

This Syrian militia based in Aleppo and Deir al-Zour has developed a uniquely close relationship with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Assad regime.

Nov 1, 2023

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Abdullah Hayek
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Profile: The Sons of Jazira and Euphrates Movement

This Ougaidat tribal militia has undertaken attacks on multiple Syrian Kurdish and U.S. sites, with support from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Assad regime.

Oct 31, 2023

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Abdullah Hayek

◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Anti-U.S. Attacks Linked to the Sons of Jazira and Euphrates Movement

The "Jazira" brand has begun claiming, through very transparent communiques, that it is undertaking rocket attacks on U.S. bases in Syria.

Oct 27, 2023

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Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

A man carries Iranian and Palestinian flags at a pro-Hamas rally in Tehran in October 2023 - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

Beyond Gaza, the Confrontation with Iran

By supporting Hamas’s operation, the Islamic Republic managed to subvert a broad emerging Arab-Israel partnership—but Israeli success in destroying the group’s military capabilities could turn the tables.

Oct 26, 2023

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Ehud Yaari

Articles & Testimony

Syria Strikes Show U.S. a “Cool Customer” in Containing Gaza Crisis...for Now

Iran-backed groups have remained on the move since October 7, likely accounting for the increase in Israeli strike activity.

Oct 26, 2023

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Andrew J. Tabler

AWH threat against U.S. bases in Kuwait and the UAE, October 24, 2023

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Kataib Hezbollah's Facade Group Threatens Gulf States Again

An Iran-aligned group that presaged two previous drone attacks on Gulf cities has issued a new threat against U.S. targets in Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.

Oct 24, 2023

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Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Brief Analysis

Echoes of 1983 Beirut Bombings in Current Iranian Proxy Escalation

As Israel prepares to dislodge Hamas from Gaza, Iran and its proxies are extending their threats to the United States, recalling the Beirut bombings that Hezbollah carried out forty years ago at Tehran’s behest.

Oct 23, 2023

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Matthew Levitt

Ships of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet on exercise in the Persian Gulf

Articles & Testimony

The Risks of a Wider War with Iran and Its Proxies

Beefing up U.S. naval deployments is not enough to boost deterrence—Washington must also respond decisively to proxy attacks on its forces and increase economic pressure on Tehran.

Oct 23, 2023

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David Schenker

Articles & Testimony

America’s Failing Iran Nuclear Policy: Time for a Course Adjustment

Policymakers need to stay focused on halting the regime’s fissile material buildup while undertaking a broader, longer-term effort to shape its assessment of the risks, costs, and utility of nuclear weapons.

Oct 20, 2023

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Michael Eisenstadt

Figure 3 A 5x3 cube of 107mm rockets, Baghdad, October 19, 2023.

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Facade Group Linked to Iran Claims Five Attacks on Americans in Iraq and Syria

A new Telegram account claiming anti-U.S. attacks is linked to Iran's Qods Force and other designated terrorist organizations.

Oct 20, 2023

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Amir al-Kaabi
Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik

◆ Militia Spotlight

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Signs of Iranian Coordination in Iraqi Base Attacks and Messaging

Iran's proxies undertook two drone attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq, and the related social media operations suggest that Iran's Qods Force played a coordinating function.

Oct 18, 2023

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Amir al-Kaabi
Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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