Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Deniable, Disposable, Disruptive: Iran’s Hybrid Warfare in Europe Demands a Proactive Response

The low-sophistication, high-volume approach used in wartime attacks claimed by the front group HAYI has exposed critical vulnerabilities in Western efforts to harden soft targets, curb online recruitment, and protect Jewish communities amid spillover from the Middle East.

May 4, 2026

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Adrian Shtuni

The national flags of China and Iran fly in Tiananmen Square during Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi's visit to Beijing, China, February 14, 2023 - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

Is There a China Strategy Behind the Iran War?

The Trump administration’s inconsistent China policy is undermining efforts to parlay the conflict into a geopolitical win.

May 4, 2026

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Michael Sobolik
Grant Rumley

Screenshot from MarineTraffic showing the route of the Idemitsu Maru.

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Why Iran’s Navigational Order Will Be Difficult to Overturn

Tehran has upended traditional maritime arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz and remains in the driver’s seat despite U.S. pressure, so authorities cannot expect to reverse this shift quickly even if the war ends soon.

May 1, 2026

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Noam Raydan

Iranians shop in a Tehran market ahead of Nowruz celelbrations in 2024 - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

Self-Destruct Mode: Why Government Incompetence Means Even Immediate Peace with the U.S. Would Not Save Iran

Tehran’s ongoing failures in critical areas such as fiscal responsibility, energy, and infrastructure repair are doing even more damage to the country’s economic position than the war itself.

Apr 30, 2026

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Patrick Clawson

Articles & Testimony

Let Iran Defeat Itself

Bailing out the regime’s new batch of hardline leaders would only help them remain a regional menace, so Washington should be very selective about whatever peace deal it signs, leaving room for the Iranian people to seek change themselves.

Apr 28, 2026

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Richard Nephew

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi greets Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov and Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi in Beijing in March 2025 - source: Reuters

Video

Brief Analysis

Wartime Support to Iran: Implications for the Middle East and Beyond

Three experts explore the regional and global implications of Russian and Chinese support for Tehran, including how much this assistance actually affects U.S. efforts to weaken the regime’s capabilities and bring the crisis to an end.

Apr 24, 2026

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Hasan Alhasan
Nicole Grajewski
Matthew Tavares

A British sailor salutes the Royal Navy flag - source: Department of Defense

Brief Analysis

Encouraging European Military Efforts to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz

Although the new European-led military initiative signals a divergence from the current U.S. approach, Washington could still harness Paris and London’s ability to mobilize international action on the shared goal of preventing Tehran from flexing its leverage over global energy markets.

Apr 24, 2026

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Souhire Medini

Articles & Testimony

Iran’s Support for Russia and Lessons Learned from Ukraine

By taking urgent steps to institutionalize the wartime partnerships formed with (and between) Ukraine, the Gulf states, and Syria, Congress can strike heavy long-term blows against hostile Russian influence in the Middle East.

Apr 21, 2026

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Aaron Y. Zelin

Articles & Testimony

He Dreamed of Regime Change

The diplomat Uri Lubrani was renowned for his persistent assertion that such an outcome in Iran was not only feasible but inevitable.

Apr 17, 2026

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Martin Kramer

Vice President Vance arrives in Pakistan for talks with Iranian counterparts in April 2026 - source: Reuters

Video

Brief Analysis

Moving from War to Diplomacy: What’s Next for Iran, Lebanon, and Gaza?

Amid major diplomatic milestones and major international security threats, three experts explore what it will take to achieve success on multiple negotiating tracks at once.

Apr 16, 2026

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Michael Herzog
Robert Satloff
Hanin Ghaddar

Brief Analysis

Jordan’s Wartime Balancing Act

The economic, political, and diplomatic fallout of the Iran crisis is bending the kingdom in multiple directions, but Washington can do much to ease the domestic stress, avoid bilateral friction, and address Amman’s growing rift with Israel.

Apr 15, 2026

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Ghaith al-Omari
David Schenker

Brief Analysis

Egypt’s Gulf-Iran Dilemma

Cairo has put a premium on de-escalation in order to end the war as soon as possible and lessen the economic and energy shocks afterward, but this approach could backfire with its longtime benefactors in the Gulf states.

Apr 15, 2026

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Ben Fishman

Articles & Testimony

In Iran Negotiations, the White House’s Military Options Are Dwindling

Rather than pushing for the unrealistic goal of reaching a comprehensive deal in two weeks, the Trump administration should take the necessarily more patient approach of working through America’s strong network of allies to strengthen its hand.

Apr 14, 2026

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Dana Stroul

Russian President Vladimir Putin meets Chinese President Xi Jinping at a summit in Beijing - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Tracking Chinese and Russian Statements on the Iran War

A regularly updated compendium of Beijing and Moscow’s reactions to the fighting in Iran, Lebanon, and beyond, including analysis of the similarities and differences in their respective diplomatic approaches to the crisis.

April 2026

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Grant Rumley
Shivane Anand

An Iranian woman walks by the scene of a U.S. airstrike in Tehran - source: Reuters

Video

Brief Analysis

In the Dark and in Danger: Iran’s Internet Shutdown and Wartime Repression

Human rights experts diagnose the current public mood in Iran and discuss how foreign governments can help counter the regime’s growing use of internet blackouts and other digital repression tools.

Apr 10, 2026

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Mahsa Alimardani
Nazanin Boniadi
Roya Boroumand

A photo illustration depicts chess pieces and the Iranian and U.S. flags - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

How Trump Could Still Get a Strategic Win from the Iran War

As long as the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened and enriched uranium is shipped out, ending the war quickly may be Washington’s best bet, since Tehran would be left to deal with dire domestic problems it has no answer for.

Apr 9, 2026

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Dennis Ross

A man walks by a mural of international currencies

Articles & Testimony

How the Iran War Will Upend the Global Economy

Beyond the widely discussed risk of energy shocks, the war also seems likely to spark a prolonged debt crisis, especially for the world’s poorest nations.

Apr 8, 2026

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Henry Tugendhat

Iraqi protesters display Iranian and Popular Mobilization Forces militia flags at a demonstration in Baghdad following the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Iraq Is at Another Crossroads with Iran-Backed Militias—and Washington

Although U.S. officials should keep pushing Baghdad to move against these groups, the Iran war has demonstrated the need to seek other avenues of pressure and recalibrate the bilateral relationship.

Apr 8, 2026

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David Schenker

Armed members of the Iraqi Shiite militia Asaib Ahl al-Haq demonstrate at a funeral in Iraq - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

What an “Iranian Proxies” Agreement Should Encompass

As wider peace negotiations continue, U.S. officials should carefully consider the many moving parts needed for a proxies deal to succeed—and what Washington would do if Tehran starts flagrantly violating its terms.

Apr 6, 2026

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Michael Jacobson

Articles & Testimony

War with Iran Tests Gulf-US Economic Model

The longstanding balance of Gulf security—in which states quietly maintained ties with Tehran while relying on Washington as the ultimate guarantor—is now under strain, making the future of their investment flows into the United States difficult to judge.

Apr 6, 2026

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Simon Henderson

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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Featured experts

Farzin Nadimi

Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Fellow with The Washington Institute, is a Washington-based analyst specializing in the security and defense affairs of Iran and the Persian Gulf region.