Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

A photo illustration of a bust of President Trump and an Iranian flag - source: Reuters

Iran Endgame? Protests, Repression, and the Trump Administration

Three experts discuss the rapidly changing situation in Iran, including the status of opposition elements on the ground, the U.S. interests at play in the crisis, and Washington’s policy options for bolstering both.

Jan 16, 2026

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Holly Dagres
Michael Eisenstadt
Richard Nephew

Protesters trample on an Iranian flag - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

Iran’s Regime Has Already Lost Its Most Potent Weapon

As protests grow, regime leaders have no clear options for scaring Iranians off the streets, intimidating foreign powers, or escaping their wider strategic crisis.

Jan 14, 2026

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Michael Singh

A protester holds a #FreeIran banner in Berlin - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Iran at a Watershed Moment? The Case for Meaningful U.S. Action

Acting now offers the best chance to halt atrocities and shape a peaceful transition, while waiting would only ensure that the next phase of the crisis is bloodier for Iranians, more dangerous for the region, and more difficult to influence.

Jan 13, 2026

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Farzin Nadimi
Patrick Clawson

Articles & Testimony

Iran 1978: Hindsight Is a Wonderful Thing

Firsthand recollections of how the Islamic Revolution progressed on the ground raise questions about the current protest movement’s prospects for success.

Jan 13, 2026

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Simon Henderson

Video posted on social media shows violent protests on the streets of Tehran - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

Iran Is Teetering. The West Isn’t Prepared.

To avoid being caught flat-footed, Western governments must begin policy planning for the destabilizing waves that could accompany regime collapse while urgently restoring support for programs focused on internet freedom, human rights, and similar areas.

Jan 10, 2026

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Holly Dagres

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Iran-Linked Tanker Delivers Russian Crude to Syria: Assessing the Risks

The incident points to the myriad ways that U.S. adversaries might exploit Moscow’s efforts to claim a permanent stake in Syria’s needy postwar energy sector.

Jan 9, 2026

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Noam Raydan

Russian President Vladimir Putin meets Chinese President Xi Jinping at a summit in Beijing - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Failing Eastward Pivot? The Limits and Risks of Russia-China Alignment

Since the June war, Tehran has hastily doubled down on Russian and Chinese partnerships to weather sanctions and deter future attacks, but Moscow and Beijing are hesitant to invest deeply in return—and Washington should make sure they stay that way.

Dec 30, 2025

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Farzin Nadimi

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

What One LPG Tanker Reveals About the Reliability of AIS Data in Hot Spots

The vessel's tracked activities and suspicious data transmissions should be investigated for potential illicit transactions with Iran and the former Assad regime.

Dec 23, 2025

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Noam Raydan

◆ Maritime Spotlight

An Iranian girl watches water being poured - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

Khomeini Promised Free Water. Iran Is Running Out of It.

Reservoirs are drying up due to systemic mismanagement and other problems, and regime officials do not appear willing or able to undertake the necessary fixes.

Nov 28, 2025

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Holly Dagres

The national flags of China and Iran fly in Tiananmen Square during Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi's visit to Beijing, China, February 14, 2023 - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

Seven Sons and Mullahs: Chinese-Iranian Defense-Linked Academic Collaboration

Recent academic output from both countries reveals joint research efforts in numerous military-related fields and some convergence between their defense innovation ecosystems, posing potential risks to the United States and its partners.

November 2025

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Assaf Orion
Jacob Sanchez

Iranian dissident Masih Alinejad speaks addresses a crowd at a courthouse - source: Holly Dagres

Brief Analysis

The United States Must Do More for Iranian Dissidents

Recent convictions in the Masih Alinejad case represent a win for dissidents everywhere, but a surge in Tehran’s hostile acts abroad requires more aggressive countermeasures, such as those laid out in the bipartisan Transnational Repression Policy Act.

Nov 12, 2025

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Holly Dagres

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Self-Confidence Returns?

Leaders in Tehran are saying they won the June war and can stand up to Israel, leaving U.S. policymakers with the tricky task of how to stand up to Iran.

Nov 4, 2025

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Patrick Clawson

Moroccan youth protest in Rabat in 2025 - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

From Discord to the Streets: Gen Z’s Moment in the Middle East

Facing an uncertain economic future and fed up with corruption and mismanagement, young people in countries from Morocco to Iran have begun voicing demands for more responsive leadership and a more open society.

Oct 10, 2025

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Holly Dagres
Sabina Henneberg

Brief Analysis

Four Keys for Iran Snapback Implementation

Inevitable attempts by Tehran to rebuild its nuclear and missile programs will require a U.S.-led campaign to track the regime’s proliferation activities and block transfers of related materials.

Oct 8, 2025

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Richard Nephew

Brief Analysis

Iranians Are Not Rallying Behind the Islamic Republic

The regime’s attempts to stir up nationalist support and increase its legitimacy postwar are not working—opposition is at a historical high.

Oct 6, 2025

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Holly Dagres

Photo of a woman walking in front of a mural that shows missiles being launched from Iran.

Articles & Testimony

The Risk and Reward of Preventive Strikes Against Iran

Understanding the background of the twelve-day war and the considerations that shaped Iran’s past nuclear calculus can help illuminate the factors most likely to influence its future proliferation choices.

Sep 30, 2025

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Michael Eisenstadt

Brief Analysis

After Snapback, Washington Needs to Prepare for Iranian Escalation in the Gulf

Given Tehran’s long record of using maritime provocations to counter increased international pressure, the United States and its partners must be ready to respond swiftly and forcefully against ship seizures, mine warfare, suicide drones, and more.

Sep 16, 2025

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Farzin Nadimi

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Nuclear Reconstitution Options

Iran’s leaders have several paths to restoring or reconfiguring their nuclear program—some more realistic or risky than others—so Washington should focus on shaping which route they choose rather than discounting the possibility altogether.

Sep 4, 2025

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Richard Nephew

Articles & Testimony

Snapback Sanctions Hit Iran

Actually enforcing them will require hard work by Western diplomats and experts in the face of opposition from Tehran, Beijing, and Moscow.

Aug 29, 2025

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Michael Singh
Richard Nephew

Brief Analysis

Will Renewed UN Sanctions Bring Iran Back to the Table?

Reimposing old sanctions may not have much economic impact if China sidesteps them, but Washington could still use the mechanism to pressure Iran on returning to negotiations.

Aug 27, 2025

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Patrick Clawson

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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Featured experts

Farzin Nadimi

Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Fellow with The Washington Institute, is a Washington-based analyst specializing in the security and defense affairs of Iran and the Persian Gulf region.