Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Leveraging Iran’s Defeat to Strengthen U.S.-Iraq Security Relations

Tehran’s Iraqi proxies mostly sat out the twelve-day war, but this pragmatic restraint will not forestall growing U.S.-Iran competition over Iraq’s airspace, economic partnerships, and other sectors.

Jul 10, 2025

◆

Michael Knights

Iranian women display their national flag at a soccer game - source: Reuters

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

How Iran’s Turn to Nationalism Affects U.S. Policy

The Supreme Leader and his domestic echo chambers have shown a remarkable shift in emphasis from religious authority to full-throated pre-revolutionary nationalism, and Washington should adjust its messaging accordingly.

Jul 8, 2025

◆

Patrick Clawson

Turkish president Erdogan - Source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

How Turkey Views the Iran-Israel Confrontation

Despite long opposing Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, Ankara has a strong national security interest in avoiding moves that result in either direct Turkish hostilities with Iran or the collapse of the Islamic Republic.

Jul 8, 2025

◆

Soner Cagaptay

Brief Analysis

An Opportunity Not to Be Missed: Agenda for the Trump-Netanyahu Meeting

The two leaders should focus on articulating a vision for a diplomatic agreement with Iran, sketching a common roadmap on Gaza, setting the stage for further Arab-Israeli normalization, and updating the parameters of bilateral strategic cooperation for a new regional reality.

Jul 3, 2025

◆

Dana Stroul
Robert Satloff

Two Iranian women hug each other while a country's flag and a portrait of an Iran-Israel war victim are projected on the Azadi (Freedom) Monument in western Tehran, Iran, on June 25, 2025 - source: Reuters

Video

Brief Analysis

Iran on Day 13: Gauging Regime Choices and Public Attitudes After the War

Two human rights experts discuss the chances that Iran’s domestic crackdown will escalate under the ceasefire, while a former CIA manager explains why the clock is rapidly ticking away on key elements needed to effectively monitor the damaged nuclear program.

Jul 3, 2025

◆

Holly Dagres
Roya Boroumand
Norman Roule

Video

Brief Analysis

After the "Hammer": Postwar Opportunities and Risks for U.S. Policy in the Middle East

The objectives of Operation Midnight Hammer aligned with the broader U.S. goals of curbing Iranian threats and stabilizing the Middle East—but military force alone will not produce those outcomes.

Jul 1, 2025

◆

Robert Satloff
Mona Yacoubian
Richard Nephew

A photo illustration shows US and Iranian flags and an atomic symbol - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Iran Talks Are Still Necessary—Here’s What They Should Focus On

From insisting on zero enrichment to making the ceasefire conditional, officials should ensure that any post-conflict negotiations with Tehran fully address U.S. policy imperatives, including the need to prevent reconstitution of the nuclear program.

Jul 1, 2025

◆

Michael Singh

Articles & Testimony

Why Putin Won’t Come to Iran’s Rescue Against Israel

Although Tehran’s current vulnerability presents important opportunities to counter Russia’s strategic ambitions, Moscow has long retained its influence in the region by purposefully avoiding overcommitment to any one partner.

Jun 28, 2025

◆

Anna Borshchevskaya

Brief Analysis

Back to the Table? Recommendations for Negotiations with Iran

A compilation of views on the next round of prospective talks with Iran, sanctions relief options, military and technical considerations, the international role, and more.

Jun 27, 2025

◆

Dennis Ross
Richard Nephew
Farzin Nadimi
Patrick Clawson
Michael Singh
Grant Rumley
Anna Borshchevskaya

Video

Brief Analysis

Energy and Economic Implications of the Iran-Israel Conflict

Three experts explore the war’s impact on global energy markets, Iran-Gulf relations, President Trump’s oil price calculations, and more.

Jun 27, 2025

◆

Homayoun Falakshahi
Jennifer Gnana
Gregory Brew

Articles & Testimony

Did the Attacks on Iran Succeed?

Israel and the United States bought themselves time on the nuclear issue, but the decision to take the military path raises a host of other risks and questions.

Jun 26, 2025

◆

Richard Nephew

US and Israeli military planes participate in the 2023 Juniper Oak joint exercise - source: IDF

Articles & Testimony

Why War? Why Now? Assessing Iranian Intentions and Capabilities

Israeli and American intelligence reached different conclusions while looking at the same information, so understanding what Jerusalem and Tehran were thinking before the war is crucial to forecasting what could come next.

Jun 26, 2025

◆

Matthew Levitt

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Retaliation: Choreography, Escalation Management, and the Mirage of “All-Out” War

Fears of an “all-out” war with Iran have been greatly overstated, and they fail to account for the Islamic Republic’s overriding desire to avoid such an outcome and the diverse repertoire it has developed to prevent one.

Jun 25, 2025

◆

Michael Eisenstadt

A USAF B-2 Spirit bomber refuels in flight - source: Department of Defense

Video

Brief Analysis

U.S. Attacks Iranian Nuclear Sites: Implications for Israel, the Middle East, and U.S. Policy

Two veteran U.S. officials join a former Israeli ambassador to discuss the effects and future consequences of the Trump administration’s decision to strike Iran’s nuclear program.

Jun 25, 2025

◆

Dana Stroul
Michael Herzog
Dennis Ross
Robert Satloff

An Iranian soldier wearing an IRGC uniform salutes in front of an Iranin flag - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Is the Islamic Republic Starting to Crack? The Signs to Watch

Although the crisis has not yet checked all the boxes that would signal fatal regime vulnerability, the situation could change quickly due to shifting conditions on the battlefield, on the streets, or within the halls of power in Tehran.

Jun 24, 2025

◆

Holly Dagres

Israeli firefighters work at the site of in Iranian missile strike on a residential building in Tel Aviv in June 2025 - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

How Iran Could Escalate

In the wake of retaliatory strikes on U.S. targets, a former Pentagon official assesses Tehran’s bad options and Washington’s best response.

Jun 23, 2025

◆

Dana Stroul

Brief Analysis

How the Iran-Israel Conflict Is Affecting Gulf Energy and Maritime Security

For regional countries seeking to transform their economies and partner with the United States in areas including AI, the current war poses risks that could reverberate in the global economy.

Jun 23, 2025

◆

Noam Raydan

A highway bridge in Tehran displays images of nuclear scientists killed during Israeli strikes against Iran in June 2025 - source: Reuters

Video

Brief Analysis

The Bigger Picture in the Iran-Israel Conflict: Russia, Missiles, Militias, and More

Four experts assess how outside players might respond to the showdown, and whether Tehran will switch up its calculus on procurement, attack tactics, and other military matters as the fight goes on.

Jun 23, 2025

◆

Anna Borshchevskaya
Michael Knights
Farzin Nadimi
Assaf Orion

Brief Analysis

What Nuclear Restrictions Would Be Required for a Viable Iran-Israel Ceasefire?

The most important restrictions include measures like permanently dismantling enrichment infrastructure and properly disposing of key materials and equipment, but policymakers need to be clear-eyed about the inherent limitations of even the strictest verification agreement.

Jun 20, 2025

◆

Richard Nephew
Patrick Clawson

Articles & Testimony

The United States May Destroy the Fordow Enrichment Plant. It Won’t Make the Iranian Nuclear Threat Go Away.

The risk of nuclear breakout is probably greater today than before Israel’s military campaign, and simply taking out Fordow would not stop the regime from using suspected secret sites to produce nuclear weapons.

Jun 17, 2025

◆

Richard Nephew

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

Never miss a breaking event on U.S. policy interests in the Middle East. Customize your subscription to our expert analysis, op-eds, live events, and special reports.

Featured experts

Farzin Nadimi

Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Fellow with The Washington Institute, is a Washington-based analyst specializing in the security and defense affairs of Iran and the Persian Gulf region.

Patrick Clawson

Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and Research Counselor at The Washington Institute.

Regions & Countries

Issues

Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Featured experts

Regions & Countries

Issues

Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Sign Up for Email Updates from The Washington Institute

Featured experts