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Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

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A video board displays various oil and gas commodity prices in September 2023 - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Defeating Iran’s Strategy: Energy Security and the “Abraham Shield”
Tehran is targeting the soft underbelly of the U.S.-Israeli campaign—the oil sector and vulnerable Middle Eastern states—but allied officials can counter this strategy by taking concerted steps to bolster their regional partners, stabilize oil markets, and suppress the regime's military capabilities.
Mar 16, 2026
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  • Assaf Orion
Articles & Testimony
An Achievable Goal in Iran
Instead of regime change, try regime weakening.
Mar 13, 2026
◆
  • Dennis Ross
Close-up photo of Chinese leader Xi and Russian leader Putin.
Video
Brief Analysis
Great Power Competition During (and After) the Iran War
Join us for an in-depth conversation examining how Beijing, Moscow, and European capitals are navigating the Iran crisis and what their choices reveal about the future of the global order. Watch live starting at 1:00 p.m. EDT (1700 GMT) on Wednesday, March 18, 2026.
March 18, 2026, starting at 1:00 p.m. EDT (1700 GMT)
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
  • Souhire Medini
  • Henry Tugendhat
  • Grant Rumley
Israeli Iron Dome missiles intercept rockets fired into Israel from Gaza by Hamas in October 2023 - source: Reuters
Video
Brief Analysis
Countering Threats from Iran’s Proxies and Partners During Wartime
Three experts discuss how Hezbollah, the Yemeni Houthis, and pro-Iran militias in Iraq have reacted to the war so far, outlining steps Washington and its regional partners can take to keep them from escalating further.
Mar 13, 2026
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  • Hanin Ghaddar
  • April Longley Alley
  • Michael Knights
A satellite map with political borders overlaid shows Afghanistan, Iran, and Pakistan - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Examining the Terrorism and Insurgency Links Between AfPak and Iran
The two conflicts may appear unrelated, but an al-Qaeda haven in Iran, threats from the Islamic State, and separatist ambitions could supercharge the risks to regional and global security.
Mar 12, 2026
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  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Articles & Testimony
The Middle East’s “1919” Moment
If the Iranian threat to the Middle East is brought to an end, the loose alliance of actors who have long sought this outcome must manage their differences to avoid the regional mistakes made after World War I.
Mar 10, 2026
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  • James Jeffrey
Wang Yi, director of China's Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission, Ali Shamkhani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, and Minister of State and national security adviser of Saudi Arabia Musaad bin Mohammed Al Aiban shake hands in Beijing in March 2023 - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
China’s Middle East Ties Go Far Beyond Iran
Beijing is just as concerned about its Gulf partners as it is about China’s “old friends” in Tehran.
Mar 10, 2026
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  • Henry Tugendhat
US and Israeli military planes participate in the 2023 Juniper Oak joint exercise - source: IDF
Articles & Testimony
Bombs Can Weaken Iran’s Regime. They Can’t Replace It.
Iran’s fractured opposition and years of repression make rapid regime change unlikely.
Mar 9, 2026
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  • Matthew Levitt
A map shows the routes of ships into and out of the Persian Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz - source: Reuters
Video
Brief Analysis
Energy and Shipping Risks in the Iran War
Four experts explain why reversing the conflict’s effects on oil and gas production and tanker traffic from the Gulf will likely take much longer than many people realize, with only limited supply alternatives in the meantime.
Mar 9, 2026
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  • Lauren Holtmeier
  • Matt Smith
  • Richard Nephew
  • Tomer Raanan
Brief Analysis
Great Power Spillover from the Iran War: Implications for China, Russia, Turkey, and Europe
Washington Institute experts explain what U.S. officials and military planners should be on the lookout for as great power competitors and close allies outside the region consider their responses to the crisis.
Mar 6, 2026
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  • Grant Rumley
  • Henry Tugendhat
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
  • Soner Cagaptay
  • Souhire Medini
A USAF F-35 launches a missile in flight - source: Department of Defense
Brief Analysis
Assessing U.S. Progress in the Iran War
While the United States and Israel are winning based on measures like the degradation of Iran’s naval force and missiles, a broader victory will require securing domestic support and avoiding the maximalism that has hindered past American military efforts.
Mar 6, 2026
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  • Michael Singh
Map of Iran's Natanz nuclear facility after Israeli military strikes.
Articles & Testimony
The Abiding Question of the Iranian Bomb
The nuclear program is still the paramount threat, and both of the main options for permanently ending it are unpalatable—but Washington needs a plan nevertheless.
Mar 5, 2026
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  • Richard Nephew
Articles & Testimony
In the Middle East, Chaos Is Putin’s New Ally
Putin has been using his position in the region to chip away at Russia’s isolation during the Ukraine war, and another Middle East regime change won’t do much to change that strategy.
Mar 5, 2026
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Mojtaba Khamenei - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
What Kind of Supreme Leader Would Mojtaba Khamenei Be?
Given his strong ties to the IRGC, Khamenei’s son might pursue extreme strategic options.
Mar 5, 2026
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  • Patrick Clawson
  • Farzin Nadimi
Protesters display Iranian, Syrian, Palestinian, and Hezbollah flags - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
The Wartime Role of Iran’s “Axis”: Countering Proxy and Terrorist Threats
Washington Institute fellows assess how Hezbollah, the Houthis, Iraq’s Hashd, and other Iranian proxies and allies are responding to the war, as well as how the Trump administration and partner governments might counter the risk of terrorist attacks given Tehran’s long track record of foreign plots.
Mar 5, 2026
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  • Assaf Orion
  • Hanin Ghaddar
  • Michael Knights
  • April Longley Alley
  • Michael Jacobson
  • Matthew Levitt
President Trump meets with members of his administration, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio and chief of staff Susie Wiles, at the start of major combat operations against Iran in 2026 - source: White House
Articles & Testimony
The Confusion in Washington Spreads from the Top Down
There is the fog of war, and then there is the Trump administration.
Mar 3, 2026
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  • Simon Henderson
Smoke rises after an Iranian strike in Bahrain on March 2, 2026 - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
War Comes to the Gulf
With Iran seemingly intent on continuing its strikes against Gulf targets and regional leaders mulling whether and how to respond, what can policymakers and military planners expect to see next in terms of likely target sets, risks to civilian areas, concerns over air defense munition supplies, and potential repercussions for energy and commercial shipping interests?
Mar 3, 2026
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  • Elizabeth Dent
  • Michael Eisenstadt
  • Noam Raydan
  • April Longley Alley
A flight deck crewman directs operations of an F-35 jet on board the USS Abraham Lincoln - source: Department of Defense
Video
Brief Analysis
The U.S. and Israel Strike Iran
Read or watch urgent insights into America’s objectives in Iran and the policies that would best advance U.S. security, help the Iranian people, and improve the prospects for long-term regional stability.
Mar 2, 2026
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  • Holly Dagres
  • Dennis Ross
  • Dana Stroul
  • Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
The Long, Sad History of U.S. Regime Change Promises
From FDR to the Bushes, Washington’s pledges to bring “freedom” to the Middle East have ended badly.
Mar 2, 2026
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  • Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Epic Fury and Roaring Lion: From War Scenarios to Pressing Postwar Questions in Iran
Washington Institute experts assess the immediate implications of U.S.-Israeli military strikes on Iran, including the regime’s future after major leadership losses, reactions inside Iran and Lebanon, the fallout for the Gulf states, the contours of potential diplomacy once the fighting stops, and more.
Mar 1, 2026
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  • Assaf Orion
  • Michael Eisenstadt
  • Holly Dagres
  • Patrick Clawson
  • Hanin Ghaddar
  • April Longley Alley
  • Richard Nephew

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Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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Featured experts

Farzin Nadimi
Farzin Nadimi
Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Fellow with The Washington Institute, is a Washington-based analyst specializing in the security and defense affairs of Iran and the Persian Gulf region.
Holly Dagres
Holly Dagres
Holly Dagres is the Libitzky Family Senior Fellow in The Washington Institute's Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy.
Patrick Clawson
Patrick Clawson
Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and Research Counselor at The Washington Institute.
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