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Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

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Palestians on a Mediterranean beach in Gaza
Articles & Testimony
Shifting East Mediterranean Tides: From Conflict to Club Med?
Although the worst-case scenarios of just a few years ago are in abeyance, the best-case ones of transformative cooperation are also still out of reach.
May 2022
◆
  • David Pollock
A Turkish Bayraktor UAV on display at an airshow - source: Reuters
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The Muqawama's Duel with Turkey
Turkish counterstrikes may have instilled caution in militia rocketeers, suggesting more attacks may come against U.S. and Kurdish targets instead.
May 17, 2022
◆
  • Alex Almeida
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Israeli Prime Minister Bennett meets with the UAE's foreign minister in December 2021 - Source: Reuters
Video
Brief Analysis
Building an Arab-Israel Bloc: Can It Compensate for a Reluctant Washington?
Arab, European, and Israeli experts assess the possibilities and limits of normalization, discussing concerns about Iran’s nuclear program, U.S. retrenchment, and the Palestinian issue.
May 12, 2022
◆
  • Nickolay Mladenov
  • Zohar Palti
  • Ebtesam al-Ketbi
  • Karim Haggag
Qatari leader Emir Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Qatari Visit to Iran Suggests Possible Policy Breakthroughs
The emir will likely seek a role in reviving the nuclear agreement, as well as Iranian help with accommodating World Cup fans later this year.
May 11, 2022
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Middle East Map Compass Binoculars
In-Depth Reports
Countering Iran's Regional Strategy
A Long-Term, Comprehensive Approach
A coordinated response to Iran’s aggression can preserve U.S. and Western interests, reinforce Israel and America’s Arab allies, and promote regional stability.
May 8, 2022
◆
  • Eyal Zamir
A Ghauri nuclear-capable missile on parade in Pakistan
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Renewed Saudi-Pakistan Contacts Revive Nuclear Fears
Deadlock in the Iran nuclear talks may prompt action by Riyadh, with Pakistani support.
Apr 27, 2022
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Tahira
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Muqawama Cyber-Surge (Part 2): Attributing Attacks to Militia Platforms
Sabereen News has seemingly broadened its capabilities to include simple hacking tactics like DDoS attacks, and it might quickly proceed to more complex exploits.
Apr 25, 2022
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Crispin Smith
◆ Militia Spotlight
Tahira
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Muqawama Cyber-Surge (Part 1): Chronology of Recent Attacks
Sabereen News appears to have added cyberattacks to its normal activities of spreading militia propaganda and disinformation, claiming operations against Israeli, Turkish, and Saudi targets.
Apr 25, 2022
◆
  • Crispin Smith
  • Hamdi Malik
◆ Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
Saudi-Kuwaiti Tensions with Iran over Offshore Gas Field
A relatively straightforward legal dispute could have geopolitical consequences.
Apr 18, 2022
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Israeli Minister of Defense Benny Gantz - source: Israeli Ministry of Defense
Video
Brief Analysis
Defense Minister Benny Gantz Discusses Israel's Strategic Challenges
The country's top defense official shares his insights on recent terrorist attacks, the Iran nuclear talks, the Ukraine war, expanding cooperation with regional countries, and more.
Apr 11, 2022
◆
  • Benny Gantz
Sabereen sistani
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Sabereen's Suspension (Part 2): Causes and Consequences
The network's hiatus may have been ordered in response to its recent lean toward Russia, or perhaps its role in enabling a controversial arson attack on a political office.
Apr 11, 2022
◆
  • Crispin Smith
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Al-Maymun
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Sabereen's Suspension (Part 1): Signs of Dissent and Noncompliance
The network was closed down almost entirely from March 28 to April 8, albeit with one apparent effort by rebellious members to refuse the suspension and blame Iran.
Apr 11, 2022
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Crispin Smith
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Articles & Testimony
Why Arab Allies Don’t Trust the U.S. on Ukraine
“This will not stand,” the president said after Iraq invaded Kuwait, but no such fortitude has been evident in response to Iran’s continued aggression.
Apr 9, 2022
◆
  • Robert Satloff
Rocket crater, Omar oilfield in Syria, April 6, 2022
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Spring Awakening: A New Wave of Militia Strikes or Just a Blip?
Militia groups appear to be increasingly exercising their different kinetic capabilities in Iraq and Syria, but why now?
Apr 8, 2022
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Crispin Smith
◆ Militia Spotlight
Russian President Vladimir Putin meets Chinese President Xi Jinping at a summit in Beijing - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
West’s Weakness Led Putin into Ukraine—and Other Enemies Are Looking for Similar Signs
Moscow has provided a wake-up call about how actors like Iran interpret habitual demonstrations of U.S. inaction.
Apr 8, 2022
◆
  • Dennis Ross
Articles & Testimony
Kurdish Infighting Could Undermine a Sovereign Iraqi Government
Shortsighted squabbles between the KDP and PUK may soon wind up sending the country back to elections—and the threat of Iranian political domination.
Apr 5, 2022
◆
  • David Schenker
Militia Russian propaganda
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
From Russia With Love? Sabereen's Ukraine Coverage
Alongside an apparent technical uplift, the militia network's coverage of the crisis has gone far beyond that of even the most pro-Russian outlets in Iraq.
Mar 24, 2022
◆
  • Crispin Smith
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, speaking
Brief Analysis
Khamenei Declares His New Year’s Resolutions for Iran
His Nowruz speech largely sidestepped foreign policy and the nuclear negotiations, instead focusing on his vision for making the country more self-reliant via a knowledge-based economy.
Mar 22, 2022
◆
  • Omer Carmi
Brief Analysis
The Baghdad-Kurdistan Energy Arena: Policy Opportunities
Washington has many good options for avoiding a Kurdish economic meltdown and turning Iraq’s internal energy dispute into a net win for all players, but it must pursue them quickly.
Mar 22, 2022
◆
  • Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
U.S. Public Diplomacy in Iran: Cutting Costs, Improving Impact
A more effective (and cost-effective) approach would give Iranians the tools they need to bypass regime monitoring, pare down low-impact television programming, and emphasize popular mobile apps.
Mar 21, 2022
◆
  • Arash Aalaei
  • Mehdi Khalaji

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