Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Three Presidents, Three Flawed Iran Policies, and the Path Ahead

News reports of a nearing breakthrough in the Iran nuclear talks will trigger sighs of relief, but the deal will likely prove disappointing on many fronts.

Feb 25, 2022

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Robert Satloff

Articles & Testimony

Trends in Iranian External Assassination, Surveillance, and Abduction Plots

Law enforcement actions and financial designations are appropriate but insufficient—the attacks will not stop without firm diplomatic isolation, travel and study bans on family members of Iranian leaders, and other direct consequences for regime decisionmakers.

February 2022

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Matthew Levitt

Brief Analysis

A Goldilocks Approach to Sanctioning Yemen’s Houthis

Although the group undoubtedly merits FTO designation, issuing targeted sanctions with broader UN buy-in may achieve better results without the humanitarian complications.

Feb 18, 2022

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Katherine Bauer

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, speaking

Brief Analysis

Khamenei Breaks His Silence on the Nuclear Negotiations

After months of publicly ignoring the issue, the Supreme Leader reminded negotiators to follow his guidelines but refrained from explicitly supporting or rejecting the state of play in Vienna.

Feb 17, 2022

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Omer Carmi

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Profile: Liwa Khaibar

With probable links to Kataib Hezbollah, this minor facade group claimed a major rocket attack on al-Asad Air Base, but mainly limits itself to claimed bombings against U.S. supply convoys.

Feb 15, 2022

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Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles

In Iranian general unveils a new solid-fuel "Khaybar Sheikan" missile

Brief Analysis

Iran Takes Next Steps on Rocket Technology

Solid-propellant motors represent the future for the Islamic Republic, promising much longer ranges and orbit reach for its space and ballistic missile programs.

Feb 11, 2022

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Farzin Nadimi

Brief Analysis

Iran Is Preparing Its Public, But Not (Yet) for Nuclear Compromise

Despite its iron grip at home, the regime generally seeks to build domestic support for its policies—so what outcome has it been prepping the public for during the nuclear talks?

Feb 3, 2022

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Jason Brodsky
Omer Carmi

Israeli defense minister Benny Gantz is greeted by a Bahraini defense official upon his arrival in Manama - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Israeli Defense Minister’s Visit to Bahrain Marks Major Advance

Iran is the dominant issue as top officials meet to finalize security pacts.

Feb 2, 2022

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Simon Henderson

Qatari leader Emir Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Gas Likely to Top Agenda of Qatar’s White House Visit

Originally planned as a thank-you for crucial assistance in last summer’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, the meeting will probably focus on Doha’s potential role in addressing the Ukraine crisis instead.

Jan 31, 2022

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Simon Henderson

Articles & Testimony

A Needed Warning for Yemen’s Rebels—and for Our Allies and Enemies Alike

Rarely has it been more important for Washington to show it will stand by a friend in response to an attack that could have resulted in many civilian casualties, including Americans.

Jan 24, 2022

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Dennis Ross

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Militia Lionization of Esmail Qaani: Consolidation or Covering Embarrassment?

The Iranian general has never received such intense praise from the Iraqi "resistance," but it may just be his attempt to spin his recent disappointing visit.

Jan 24, 2022

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Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Portraits of Baha'i adherents arrested in Iran on display in Brazil - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Increased Persecution of the Bahai

Targeting the faith’s followers is a longstanding feature of the Islamic Republic but has been escalating of late.

Jan 21, 2022

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Mehdi Khalaji

Brief Analysis

Houthi Strikes on UAE Open Another Front in Yemen War

As Emirati-aligned forces gain ground on the battlefield in Yemen, the Houthis are trying to raise the costs of Abu Dhabi’s involvement.

Jan 18, 2022

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Elana DeLozier

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Muhandis Replaced by Not One Man, But Two?

Abu Fadak and Akram Kaabi seem to have inherited the PMF and "resistance" parts of the late militia leader's portfolio.

Jan 12, 2022

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Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Abu Fadak Tries to Split the Shrine Units

Recent moves by the senior PMF commander are seemingly aimed at sowing divisions among four key militias that do not answer to the so-called "resistance."

Jan 11, 2022

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Hamdi Malik

◆ Militia Spotlight

Brief Analysis

Will the Ukraine Standoff Affect the Iran Nuclear Talks?

Some Western policymakers seem to believe that Russia can be helpful on Iran even as it threatens to attack Ukraine, but they’re missing the bigger picture.

Jan 11, 2022

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Anna Borshchevskaya

Militia with 23mm driving west outside IZ, May 26, 2021

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Making Sense of Militia Attacks in Iraq and Syria in Early 2022

The process of assuaging the militia support base was carefully stage-managed in the first week of the new year, with Iran and Nujaba setting the ground rules.

Jan 6, 2022

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Michael Knights
Crispin Smith

◆ Militia Spotlight

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Law Enforcement Shuffle Reflects Concern About Protests

The Supreme Leader and the IRGC are asserting more control over the task of monitoring and managing protest movements, creating yet another intelligence agency in the process.

Jan 5, 2022

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Amir Toumaj

Articles & Testimony

Solving Syria’s Crisis Starts with Sanctioning Iranian Oil

Instead of quietly greenlighting the Assad regime’s diplomatic rehabilitation, U.S. officials should escalate economic pressure on its Iranian enablers to regain leverage at the negotiating table.

Jan 3, 2022

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Andrew J. Tabler
Matthew Zweig

Brief Analysis

IRGC Conducts “Hybrid” Military Drills as Nuclear Talks Teeter

The timing of the exercise and the types of systems and tactics on display reveal much about Iran’s likely response to any uptick in foreign pressure.

Dec 22, 2021

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Farzin Nadimi

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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