Richard Nephew is the Bernstein Adjunct Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He has spent much of his career in the U.S. government in various capacities. From 2022-2024, he was the inaugural U.S. Coordinator on Global Anti-Corruption at the Department of State. He was also
Articles & Testimony
A closer look at the technical indicators that experts and officials will be looking for to determine whether Israel’s campaign is setting the program back, and how much.
Israel’s decision to attack Iran’s nuclear program might go down in history as the start of a significant regional war, and the inflection point that led Iran to finally acquire nuclear weapons. But the strikes might also be remembered as the first moment in decades in which the world no longer faced the risk of an Iranian bomb. For years, analysts have studied the possible outcomes of such an attack—and have come away with very different predictions. Now, everyone will find out which forecast was correct. It could take weeks before experts understand the full extent of the damage Israel has dealt, let alone if and how Tehran will recover. The attacks, after all, aren’t even over. But although it may not yet be possible to judge the long-term effects, analysts do know what to look for as they evaluate the results. Some of those factors are quantifiable...
