Lebanon

With the group and its Iranian patrons at their weakest point in decades, Beirut has a real opportunity to restore its sovereignty, but waiting for another futile “national dialogue” may close that window.

By encouraging the new Saudi-mediated talks with Damascus, Washington and its partners can help secure Beirut’s sovereignty, contain Hezbollah smuggling, and stabilize Lebanon’s other border with Israel.

Definitive conclusions about the post-October 7 environment remain elusive, but it is not too early to draw lessons and consider the problems and opportunities that may arise from the recent upheaval in 2025.

The announcement of "working groups" between Israel and Lebanon comes at a key juncture in the ceasefire, and complementary action by the United States and France can facilitate full implementation.

Most of the top militia leaders appeared too cowed to show up, but a wide assortment of senior Iraqi "resistance" and political figures did attend, including potential future candidates for prime minister.

The new cabinet appointments appeared to sideline Hezbollah’s camp, but the group retained control over the crucial Finance Ministry and may find other ways of interfering with security decisions, the reconstruction process, and the next elections.

Weakening Hezbollah permanently will be difficult, but for once the goal is attainable—if Beirut has the courage to keep the group out of Lebanon’s coffers and make the army do its job.

Salam has promised to enforce accountability and implement the ceasefire with Israel; independent Shia cabinet ministers can help him reach those goals while showing there is an alternative to Hezbollah.

Watch or read remarks from a former LAF general, the IDF’s former head of strategic planning, and an expert Lebanon analyst during a new series of virtual panels held by The Washington Institute.