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Gulf States

Policy Analysis on Gulf States

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Chinese president Xi walks with U.S. president Trump in Beijing in 2017 - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
What Will Trump and Xi Have to Say About the Middle East?
Washington should use this summit to convince China to put more pressure on Iran and establish safeguards on AI, but without conceding on other critical issues like Taiwan.
Sep 22, 2026
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  • Grant Rumley
  • Elizabeth Dent
President Trump meets with Gulf leaders at the GCC summit in Riyadh on May 14, 2026 - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Trump’s GCC Meeting: A Path Out of the Conflict
Given this month’s shifting threat picture, the administration should push for another compromise deal similar to the June MOU—though getting Iran back to the table will require accepting certain escalatory risks and providing more concrete security guarantees to increasingly vulnerable Gulf partners.
Sep 21, 2026
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  • James Jeffrey
Articles & Testimony
The Real U.S.-Saudi Nuclear Deal Is Better Than We Thought
Some textual concerns persist, such as how to handle the risk of Saudi cheating and avoid setting bad precedents, but the official agreement has several worthwhile provisions that reduce the intrinsic risk of nuclear trade.
Sep 17, 2026
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  • Richard Nephew
Articles & Testimony
Hormuz Shuttle Tankers: An Evolving Trend Amid the Iran War
Ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman have provided a helpful export alternative for regional oil producers, but this shuttle trade will likely remain a target for Iranian attacks.
Sep 17, 2026
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  • Noam Raydan
Photo of a blast wall with a drone mural at al-Asad Air Base in Iraq.
Brief Analysis
Iraq’s Militia Balancing Act Gets Trickier Amid Deadlines and Saudi Attacks
As the September 30 disarmament deadline for PMF militias approaches, Washington should support the Zaidi government’s efforts and ensure that the militias’ concessions are real.
Sep 18, 2026
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  • David Schenker
Yemen's Houthis in formation.
Articles & Testimony
Iran’s Second Front
The latest Houthi offensive has shattered the status quo along Yemen’s west coast, upended a years-long truce, and set the stage for further consolidation of their control in the north—but the victory is also Iran’s.
Sep 11, 2026
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  • April Longley Alley
  • Allison Minor
Photo of computer servers in a data center.
Brief Analysis
Saudi AI Ambitions Create a U.S. Opening
Given the kingdom’s simultaneous push for more technological autonomy and more American business deals, Washington should seek deeper—but conditional—cooperation that is closely tied to the broader strategic partnership.
Sep 4, 2026
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  • Elizabeth Dent
Brief Analysis
Following Up on the First Warning Shot in Operation Economic Outcast
Targeting a UAE-based bank with a serious but time-delayed action could have beneficial cautionary effects—though the wider problem of illicit Iranian financing in the Emirates will require a more concerted and lengthy Treasury Department campaign.
Sep 1, 2026
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  • Michael Jacobson
Houthi drone aircraft on display in Yemen - source: Reuters
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Helping the Gulf and Ukraine Build Their Counter-Drone Partnership
Ukrainian cooperation with Gulf states on drone and counter-drone technologies is expanding as they contend with similar threats and concerns, so Washington should do whatever it can to enable and coordinate this growth.
Aug 28, 2026
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  • Elizabeth Dent
  • Matthew Tavares
Dubai's The Gate complex in the Emirati financial center
Brief Analysis
Shutting Iran’s Emirati Back Door to Banks and Supply Chains
In launching its newly announced “Operation Economic Outcast,” the Trump administration’s primary beachhead should be the UAE, which has signaled a shift in the right direction but will need targeted U.S. help with cutting off illicit Iranian transactions.
Aug 24, 2026
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  • Matthew Levitt
  • Maya Chaovat
Map showing Iranian, Omani, and international shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz.
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Reaching Viable Management Arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz
Any postwar system must preserve the “transit passage” regime, enable ships to safely resume use of the original IMO route, and reject mandatory fees, veto rights, or other Iranian tactics for exerting permanent control over one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.
Aug 5, 2026
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  • Noam Raydan
  • Farzin Nadimi
Articles & Testimony
A Saudi-Emirati Thaw Can Help Contain Iran
The Gulf needs a joint front on deterrence, engagement, and freedom of navigation.
Aug 3, 2026
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  • Allison Minor
  • April Longley Alley
Brief Analysis
How to Prevent Militias from Disrupting Iraqi-Saudi Relations
As the dust settles from new attacks in both countries, Baghdad will need U.S. support to make progress against Iran-backed militias while assuaging Riyadh’s security concerns.
Jul 30, 2026
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  • Michael Knights
The sun sets behind U.S. and Kuwaiti flags at Ali Al Salem AFB in Kuwait - source: Department of Defense
Brief Analysis
Kuwait and the Future of U.S. Power Projection
Given the country’s difficult experience during the Iran war, Washington should offer sustained political attention, practical assistance, and an expanded vision for the partnership’s future.
Jul 28, 2026
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  • Elizabeth Dent
Brief Analysis
Yemen’s Truce at Risk
High-profile funeral events in Iran provided an opportunity for the Houthis to pressure Saudi Arabia, and for Tehran to demonstrate support to its partner and signal it has cards to play at another maritime chokepoint.
Jul 16, 2026
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  • April Longley Alley
Montage: Presidents Sisi (Egypt) and Putin (Russia) at the 2024 BRICS summit; a woman holds a Russian flag in Istanbul; a Russia House cultural center in Syria; a map image superimposing Russian flag over Africa/Middle East.
Video
Brief Analysis
Russia, the Iran War, and the Middle East
Former senior U.S. defense officials join a Russia expert to discuss how the Iran crisis is shaping Moscow’s military, political, and economic ambitions in the region.
Jul 10, 2026
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  • Keith Kellogg
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
  • Matthew Tavares
Screenshot of a map showing shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz.
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iran Is Still Intent on Preventing a Return to the Old Navigational Order
Constricted traffic patterns, escalating warnings, uncertain mine threats, and a new drone attack all suggest that Tehran has no intention of willingly going back to business as usual in the Strait of Hormuz, regardless of diplomatic breakthroughs.
Jun 26, 2026
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  • Noam Raydan
Yemen's Houthis in formation.
Articles & Testimony
How the Looming Houthi Threat Could Turn the Iran War
Whether the U.S. truce with Iran breaks down or winds up rewarding the regime, the previously restrained Houthis may take it as a signal to resume their own aggression.
Jun 9, 2026
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  • April Longley Alley
Brief Analysis
Countering Iran’s Latest “Smart Control” Gambit in the Strait of Hormuz
Tehran is hoping that its Persian Gulf Strait Authority will establish “facts on the ground” and give it leverage at the negotiating table, so Washington and its partners need to respond right away with a suite of military, economic, and diplomatic countermeasures.
Jun 3, 2026
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  • Farzin Nadimi
USS Boxer leads U.S. Navy ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz - source: Department of Defense
Brief Analysis
How to Accomplish U.S. Objectives in Iran
An agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the U.S. blockade could make it easier to ultimately address more complex issues such as Iran’s uranium stockpile, missile program, and support for proxies.
May 14, 2026
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  • Michael Singh

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Supported by the

Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy

The Washington Institute's Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy embodies the Institute's long-term research focus on the conservative Arab Gulf states -- Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman -- and the key role these countries play collectively as a primary source of the world's oil and natural gas.

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Featured experts

Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt is the Kahn Senior Fellow and director of The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program.
Simon Henderson
Simon Henderson
Simon Henderson is the Baker Senior Fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy at The Washington Institute, specializing in energy matters and the conservative Arab states of the Persian Gulf.
Elizabeth Dent - source: The Washington Institute
Elizabeth Dent
Elizabeth Dent is the Nathan and Esther K. Wagner Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where she focuses on U.S. foreign and defense policy toward the Gulf states, Iraq, and Syria.
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