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Gulf States

Policy Analysis on Gulf States

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UAE-Israel Gas Deal (Finally) Finalized

Given ongoing environmental concerns over energy cooperation, the chances that the two partners will fully realize their commercial potential are still up in the air.

Simon Henderson

Articles & Testimony

What’s Behind Biden’s Not-So-Green Request for More Oil?

The announcement raises several awkward geopolitical questions, but market factors may ultimately make U.S. pressure moot.

Simon Henderson

Vice President Joe Biden arrives in Saudi Arabia

Articles & Testimony

Biden Needs a Middle East Strategy to Avoid New Crises

To dispel confusion among America’s partners and better counter its adversaries, the administration will have to do a better job of integrating its country-specific strategies into an overarching approach for accomplishing larger goals.

Kenneth Pollack
Dennis Ross

Iranian sailors on board a naval vessel in the Strait of Hormuz

Iran-Israel Escalation at Sea: The Need for an International Coalition Response

Lethal targeting and other signs of escalation point to the necessity of a robust international maritime security force with a strong UN mandate.

Farzin Nadimi

Iranian military drone aircraft on display.

Articles & Testimony

What’s Worse for the Price of Oil—a Belligerent Iran or a Resurgent COVID?

The latest price lurch was rooted in the pandemic’s impact on China’s economy, not the apparent Iranian strike on an Israeli tanker.

Simon Henderson

An oil pipeline terminal jetty in Eilat, Israel

Israel-UAE Pipeline Deal Delayed by Environmental Concerns

A bureaucratic skirmish in Naftali Bennett’s coalition government could impede Jerusalem’s growing ties with Abu Dhabi.

Simon Henderson

Articles & Testimony

OPEC Will Boost Oil Output—But Don't Expect Lower Prices at the Pump

Although more supplies will be coming to market, the economic impact of this decision will depend on issues of timing, royal rapprochement, and new COVID surges.

Simon Henderson

Managing Middle East Defense Partnerships Amid Great Power Competition

The U.S. government can counter the narrative of withdrawal by disassociating its regional commitment from the number of “boots on the ground,” building longer-term security cooperation plans, and clarifying its CAATSA sanctions policy.

Grant Rumley
Kathryn Wheelbarger

Articles & Testimony

Expect Political Consequences from Higher Oil Prices During the Summer Driving Season

Gulf squabbles over production quotas highlight the industry’s uncertain future, but in the meantime Washington may have to deal with heightened pressure at home.

Simon Henderson

Saudi Arabia's Prince Khalid bin Salman meets with U.S. military officials in 2018.

Saudi Visit to Washington Will Have a Thorny Agenda

Hosting Prince Khalid is a good look for the bilateral relationship, but discussions may prove difficult given complications over defense sales, Israeli normalization, OPEC infighting, and continued fallout over the Khashoggi affair.

Simon Henderson

Maps & Graphics

Militias Parade Under the PMF Banner (Part 1): Drone Systems

Militia Spotlight

Drone systems paraded in Camp Ashraf were a show of strength, including the debut of new types of Iranian-provided airframes and control vehicles.

Farzin Nadimi
Michael Knights

Uneasy State of Play Awaits New UN Envoy in Yemen

The next envoy will be asked to find a quick path to peace where no obvious one exists, armed with little leverage for budging the emboldened and well-positioned Houthis.

Elana DeLozier

Articles & Testimony

The Worst of COVID-19 May Be Over, But It’s Still a Factor in the Price of Oil

The issue will likely dominate discussions at the next OPEC+ meeting, but the longer-term economic and geopolitical repercussions are trickier to gauge.

Simon Henderson

Figure 1: Rocket and drone attacks on coalition "points of presence".

Maps & Graphics

Iraq’s Drone and Rocket Epidemic, By the Numbers

Militia Spotlight

Attacks on coalition points of presence are increasing in quantity and quality, making U.S. fatalities increasingly likely unless deterrence is restored.

Michael Knights
Crispin Smith

Anti-Normalization Laws: A Powerful Weapon in the Fight Against Peace

A panel of experts discuss Hezbollah’s efforts to neutralize the Abraham Accords by threatening and prosecuting Lebanese citizens who interact with Israelis, including expatriates living or working in Gulf countries.

Nadim Koteich
Majd Harb
Hanin Ghaddar
Joseph Braude

Making Libya’s Berlin Process Work

To break the political deadlock, begin the withdrawal of disruptive foreign forces, and deploy ceasefire monitors, U.S. officials will need to hold some hard conversations with the UN envoy and all of the international and local actors on the ground.

Ben Fishman
Anas El Gomati

Articles & Testimony

The Policy Consequences of Arab State Normalization with the Assad Regime

In addition to undermining the Biden administration’s promised focus on human rights, allowing Assad to regain legitimacy abroad would constitute a strategic blunder that cannot be explained away.

Oula A. Alrifai
Aaron Y. Zelin

Articles & Testimony

Wondering Why Gas Costs So Much? Blame Consumer Demands and the Oil Market

A post-oil future isn’t without risks, whether for Middle Eastern producers or Western economies still tied to hydrocarbons in myriad ways.

Simon Henderson

Chinese and U.S. flags flutter at a trade meeting in Shanghai

Articles & Testimony

Beijing Is Social Media Trolling Biden Over Gaza

China’s "wolf warrior" diplomacy has discovered the Middle East, catching Washington unprepared.

Michael Singh

President Joe Biden speaks on the phone in the Oval Office of the White House

Winning the Gaza Ceasefire: Critical Decisions for the Biden Administration

Hamas may not have realized it when firing its first salvo against Jerusalem, but the challenge of its rockets didn’t end with a ceasefire—the administration now faces complex and urgent decisions that could affect the direction of its overall foreign policy.

Robert Satloff

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