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Gulf States

Policy Analysis on Gulf States

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Iranian military drone aircraft on display.
Articles & Testimony
What’s Worse for the Price of Oil—a Belligerent Iran or a Resurgent COVID?
The latest price lurch was rooted in the pandemic’s impact on China’s economy, not the apparent Iranian strike on an Israeli tanker.
Aug 2, 2021
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  • Simon Henderson
An oil pipeline terminal jetty in Eilat, Israel
Brief Analysis
Israel-UAE Pipeline Deal Delayed by Environmental Concerns
A bureaucratic skirmish in Naftali Bennett’s coalition government could impede Jerusalem’s growing ties with Abu Dhabi.
Jul 26, 2021
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  • Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
OPEC Will Boost Oil Output—But Don't Expect Lower Prices at the Pump
Although more supplies will be coming to market, the economic impact of this decision will depend on issues of timing, royal rapprochement, and new COVID surges.
Jul 19, 2021
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  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Managing Middle East Defense Partnerships Amid Great Power Competition
The U.S. government can counter the narrative of withdrawal by disassociating its regional commitment from the number of “boots on the ground,” building longer-term security cooperation plans, and clarifying its CAATSA sanctions policy.
Jul 13, 2021
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  • Grant Rumley
  • Kathryn Wheelbarger
Articles & Testimony
Expect Political Consequences from Higher Oil Prices During the Summer Driving Season
Gulf squabbles over production quotas highlight the industry’s uncertain future, but in the meantime Washington may have to deal with heightened pressure at home.
Jul 8, 2021
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  • Simon Henderson
Saudi Arabia's Prince Khalid bin Salman meets with U.S. military officials in 2018.
Brief Analysis
Saudi Visit to Washington Will Have a Thorny Agenda
Hosting Prince Khalid is a good look for the bilateral relationship, but discussions may prove difficult given complications over defense sales, Israeli normalization, OPEC infighting, and continued fallout over the Khashoggi affair.
Jul 6, 2021
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  • Simon Henderson
Mohajer drone
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Militias Parade Under the PMF Banner (Part 1): Drone Systems
Drone systems paraded in Camp Ashraf were a show of strength, including the debut of new types of Iranian-provided airframes and control vehicles.
Jul 3, 2021
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
Uneasy State of Play Awaits New UN Envoy in Yemen
The next envoy will be asked to find a quick path to peace where no obvious one exists, armed with little leverage for budging the emboldened and well-positioned Houthis.
Jul 1, 2021
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  • Elana DeLozier
Articles & Testimony
The Worst of COVID-19 May Be Over, But It’s Still a Factor in the Price of Oil
The issue will likely dominate discussions at the next OPEC+ meeting, but the longer-term economic and geopolitical repercussions are trickier to gauge.
Jun 30, 2021
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  • Simon Henderson
Figure 1: Rocket and drone attacks on coalition "points of presence".
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iraq’s Drone and Rocket Epidemic, By the Numbers
Attacks on coalition points of presence are increasing in quantity and quality, making U.S. fatalities increasingly likely unless deterrence is restored.
Jun 27, 2021
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  • Michael Knights
  • Crispin Smith
◆ Militia Spotlight
Video
Brief Analysis
Anti-Normalization Laws: A Powerful Weapon in the Fight Against Peace
A panel of experts discuss Hezbollah’s efforts to neutralize the Abraham Accords by threatening and prosecuting Lebanese citizens who interact with Israelis, including expatriates living or working in Gulf countries.
Jun 24, 2021
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  • Nadim Koteich
  • Majd Harb
  • Hanin Ghaddar
  • Joseph Braude
Brief Analysis
Making Libya’s Berlin Process Work
To break the political deadlock, begin the withdrawal of disruptive foreign forces, and deploy ceasefire monitors, U.S. officials will need to hold some hard conversations with the UN envoy and all of the international and local actors on the ground.
Jun 21, 2021
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  • Ben Fishman
  • Anas El Gomati
Articles & Testimony
The Policy Consequences of Arab State Normalization with the Assad Regime
In addition to undermining the Biden administration’s promised focus on human rights, allowing Assad to regain legitimacy abroad would constitute a strategic blunder that cannot be explained away.
Jun 2, 2021
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  • Oula A. Alrifai
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Articles & Testimony
Wondering Why Gas Costs So Much? Blame Consumer Demands and the Oil Market
A post-oil future isn’t without risks, whether for Middle Eastern producers or Western economies still tied to hydrocarbons in myriad ways.
May 28, 2021
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  • Simon Henderson
Chinese and U.S. flags flutter at a trade meeting in Shanghai
Articles & Testimony
Beijing Is Social Media Trolling Biden Over Gaza
China’s "wolf warrior" diplomacy has discovered the Middle East, catching Washington unprepared.
May 26, 2021
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  • Michael Singh
President Joe Biden speaks on the phone in the Oval Office of the White House
Brief Analysis
Winning the Gaza Ceasefire: Critical Decisions for the Biden Administration
Hamas may not have realized it when firing its first salvo against Jerusalem, but the challenge of its rockets didn’t end with a ceasefire—the administration now faces complex and urgent decisions that could affect the direction of its overall foreign policy.
May 21, 2021
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  • Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
After the Gaza Cease-Fire, What Next?
From calling out Qatar and Turkey to encouraging direct Israeli aid, Washington should pursue bolder initiatives that boost the chances of avoiding bloodshed.
May 20, 2021
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  • David Pollock
Articles & Testimony
Achieving Sustainable Peace in Yemen
A political settlement with the Houthis is important, but no agreement can last without local buy-in and concerted efforts to rebuild Yemen’s infrastructure, institutions, and governance practices.
May 19, 2021
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  • Elana DeLozier
  • Adam Baron
Egyptian president Sisi speaks
Brief Analysis
How Cairo Can Help Ease the Israeli-Palestinian Crisis
Washington should welcome Egypt’s desire to restore its role as a peace mediator, but only if both governments are willing to formulate a constructive approach that avoids repeating the mistakes of the Mubarak era.
May 18, 2021
◆
  • Haisam Hassanein
KH Drone
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Kataib Hezbollah Leads Drone Warfare Inside Iraq
The group is employing sophisticated drone capabilities against U.S. airbases in Iraq, mirroring tactics and systems used in Yemen.
May 14, 2021
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Crispin Smith
◆ Militia Spotlight

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Supported by the

Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy

The Washington Institute's Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy embodies the Institute's long-term research focus on the conservative Arab Gulf states -- Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman -- and the key role these countries play collectively as a primary source of the world's oil and natural gas.

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Featured experts

Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt is the Kahn Fellow and director of The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program.
Simon Henderson
Simon Henderson
Simon Henderson is the Baker fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy at The Washington Institute, specializing in energy matters and the conservative Arab states of the Persian Gulf.
Michael Knights
Michael Knights
Michael Knights is the Jill and Jay Bernstein Fellow of The Washington Institute, specializing in the military and security affairs of Iraq, Iran, and the Persian Gulf states. He is a co-founder of the Militia Spotlight platform, which offers in-depth analysis of developments related to the Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria.
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