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Gulf States

Policy Analysis on Gulf States

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OPEC flag
Articles & Testimony
High Prices, War in Ukraine, a Cold Winter Ahead—and Now OPEC+ Piles On
The oil cartel’s reported plan to cut production could roil global markets, U.S.-Gulf relations, and American voter sentiment.
Oct 4, 2022
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Smoke is seen at a Saudi oil facility in Abqaiq, 2019 - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Will a Sense of Revenge Spur Iran to Attack Saudi Arabia?
While the regime doubles down on its domestic crackdown, it has increased its threatening rhetoric abroad as well, potentially drawing U.S. assets into a new round of military escalation reminiscent of summer 2019.
Oct 4, 2022
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  • Farzin Nadimi
AWH graphic
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iraqi Militia Group Makes Credible New Threat Against the Gulf States
The facade group in question tends to follow through on its warnings, so its latest rhetoric about using developments in Yemen as cause for new attacks should be taken seriously.
Oct 3, 2022
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Turkish President Erdogan at a summit with Russian President Putin in Sochi in 2021 - source: Reuters
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
A Domestic Audience for Turkish Foreign Policy
With elections in the balance, Erdoğan is playing a risky game of international normalizations in the hope that the Turkish electorate will approve of economic ties and immigrant solutions.
Sep 30, 2022
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  • Batu Coşkun
  • Gökhan Çınkara
Brief Analysis
Kuwait’s Election Offers Insights on Wider Gulf Politics
The vote and the events leading up to it reflect a system in near-paralysis rather than an example for neighbors to emulate.
Sep 28, 2022
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  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Saudi King Gives Up Prime Minister Role to Crown Prince
The transfer further boosts his son’s authority and could even be a prelude to an unprecedented abdication.
Sep 27, 2022
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  • Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Regional Security Cooperation Partnerships in the Middle East
The Abraham Accords have substantially increased the region’s options for countering Iranian threats, but the past performance of Arab coalitions should make policymakers cautious about expecting too much from new alliances.
Sep 21, 2022
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  • David Schenker
MEES map showing Israeli and Lebanese maritime border claims in the East Mediterranean.
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Israel’s Karish Gas Field: Diplomatic Opportunity or Casus Belli?
Seven experts examine how the fraught decision to start production might affect Beirut’s negotiating stance, Hezbollah’s military calculus, U.S.-Israel relations, and other factors.
Sep 20, 2022
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  • Simon Henderson
  • Hanin Ghaddar
  • Matthew Levitt
  • Ehud Yaari
  • David Makovsky
  • David Schenker
  • Andrew J. Tabler
mohammed bin salman
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Pragmatic Re-Balancing: the Saudi Dual Outreach to Israel and Iran
While the Middle East remains littered with flashpoints, Saudi Arabia is reaching out to Israel and Iran in an attempt to defuse simmering tensions and build consensus, with the Kingdom shifting from a confrontational to fence-mending approach.
Sep 20, 2022
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  • Leonardo Jacopo Maria Mazzucco
Currency exchange prices on display
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
SDR Allocations in the Middle East: Helpful, but No Silver Bullet
Various governments have made good use of last year’s unprecedented IMF allocation, but the Ukraine war, ongoing debt issues, and other economic problems are a reminder that the region cannot sidestep deeper reforms indefinitely.
Sep 20, 2022
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  • Jonah Shrock
Articles & Testimony
A New Iran Deal Won’t Prevent an Iranian Bomb
Tehran’s program is far more advanced than in 2015, so only a credible threat of force will stop the regime from crossing the nuclear weapons threshold.
Sep 9, 2022
◆
  • Dennis Ross
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Bahrain Opinion Poll Confirms Sectarian Split on Iran, but not on U.S. or Israel
The Bahraini public provided their perspectives on ties with international partners, moderate Islam, and the country’s economic situation.
Sep 9, 2022
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  • David Pollock
U.S. Navy image of an Iranian vessel attempting to capture a U.S. naval drone - source: Department of Defense
Brief Analysis
Iranian Seizures Raise Questions About Unmanned Maritime Operations
More trouble may await U.S. vessels unless officials work resolutely to protect them and establish effective guidelines for their safe operation.
Sep 7, 2022
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Responding to the PA’s Mounting Fiscal Crisis
Years of declining international aid, unsustainable public patronage, and controversial policies have pushed the Palestinian government and banking sector to the brink of insolvency.
Sep 1, 2022
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  • Jonah Shrock
  • Gabriel Epstein
  • David Makovsky
UAE flag
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
July/August 2022 UAE Survey Shows U.S. Leads Iran, but Lags Russia and China
Emiratis share their views on global players, regional dynamics, and economic conditions.
Aug 30, 2022
◆
  • David Pollock
Riyadh
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
New Saudi Poll Shows Biden's Visit Barely Budged Skepticism
The Saudi public gave mixed reviews on issues such as normalization and ties with the United States, but remained mostly united regarding Russia’s actions in Ukraine and relations with Iran.
Aug 26, 2022
◆
  • David Pollock
Brief Analysis
Oman’s Economic Success Is Driven by Accountability as Much as Oil
By pushing the government to make more efficient use of higher hydrocarbon prices and a budget surplus of $2 billion, the sultan has helped reduce anxiety about the stability of the strategically positioned Gulf state.
Aug 11, 2022
◆
  • Jonathan Campbell-James
U.S., Israeli, Bahraini, and Qatari flags on a mural celebrating the Abraham Accords
Articles & Testimony
A Path to Peace from Biden’s Trip—How the Arab States Can Help
Regional governments are going to reach out to Israel anyway, so why not take advantage of this activity to help the Palestinians and encourage Jerusalem toward constructive moves?
Aug 1, 2022
◆
  • Dennis Ross
  • David Makovsky
President Joe Biden greets Saudi King Salman in Jeddah in July 2022 - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
The True Promise of Joe Biden’s Middle East Trip
It is no exaggeration to say that the visit represents a transformation of Washington’s regional approach—including a rethink of the “pivot.”
Jul 27, 2022
◆
  • Dennis Ross
  • James Jeffrey
Photo of Chinese and Emirati leaders walking.
Articles & Testimony
China Below the Radar: Israel-US Strategic Dialogue on Technology
Although the headlines were focused elsewhere, the president’s Israel-Saudi trip included statements, agreements, and newly announced inter-agency dialogues that imply deep implications for China policy.
Jul 26, 2022
◆
  • Assaf Orion
  • Shira Efron

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Supported by the

Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy

The Washington Institute's Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy embodies the Institute's long-term research focus on the conservative Arab Gulf states -- Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman -- and the key role these countries play collectively as a primary source of the world's oil and natural gas.

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Featured experts

Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt is the Kahn Senior Fellow and director of The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program.
Simon Henderson
Simon Henderson
Simon Henderson is the Baker Senior Fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy at The Washington Institute, specializing in energy matters and the conservative Arab states of the Persian Gulf.
Michael Knights
Michael Knights
Michael Knights is the Jill and Jay Bernstein Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and cofounder of the Militia Spotlight platform, which offers in-depth analysis of developments related to Iran-backed militias.
Elizabeth Dent - source: The Washington Institute
Elizabeth Dent
Elizabeth Dent is a Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where she focuses on U.S. foreign and defense policy toward the Gulf states, Iraq, and Syria.
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