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Proliferation

Policy Analysis on Proliferation

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Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, gestures while speaking
Brief Analysis
Khamenei Attempts to Restore Optimism and Normality in Nowruz Speeches
Despite facing unprecedented protests and other deep challenges, the Supreme Leader delivered upbeat New Year’s messages and argued that simply controlling runaway inflation would solve most of Iran’s ills.
Mar 23, 2023
◆
  • Omer Carmi
Protesters wave flags and placards in front of the Knesset to demonstrate their opposition to judicial reforms proposed by the coalition government of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu - source: Reuters
Video
Brief Analysis
The National Security Implications of Israel's Judicial Debate
A panel of former senior Israeli officials discusses how the convulsive domestic debate may affect vital issues related to military preparedness, Iranian nuclear advancement, Palestinian terrorism, and more.
Mar 8, 2023
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  • David Makovsky
  • Shimrit Meir
  • Yaakov Amidror
  • Uzi Dayan
  • Zohar Palti
USAF ground crew directs a B-1 Lancer bomber
Articles & Testimony
Iran Needs to Believe America’s Threat
Four steps could help check Tehran’s progress toward a nuclear bomb and avoid the regional risks of a unilateral Israeli attack.
Mar 5, 2023
◆
  • Dennis Ross
Articles & Testimony
Is Iran Ready to Build a Nuclear Bomb or Not?
The Biden administration’s mixed messages about the significance of new enrichment revelations will make it more difficult to decide next steps.
Mar 1, 2023
◆
  • Simon Henderson
U.S. flag, nuclear symbol, Iranian flag
In-Depth Reports
Iran’s Nuclear Endgame Warrants a Change in U.S. Strategy
The regime's latest step on uranium enrichment should compel the United States and its partners to snap back sanctions, bolster military deterrence, and plan for potential crisis scenarios.
Feb 28, 2023
◆
  • Michael Singh
Articles & Testimony
Iran Enriched Uranium to 84 Percent—But Can It Make a Nuclear Bomb?
The new reported level is well beyond most people’s “red line” and will likely draw much attention at the IAEA's March meeting.
Feb 20, 2023
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  • Simon Henderson
Iranian president Raisi is greeted upon his arrival for a state visit to China in February 2023 - source: Government of Iran
Brief Analysis
Raisi Visits China: More Symbolism Than Substance
The Iranian president’s high-profile Beijing trip reaffirmed the relationship’s limits—and will probably reinforce Tehran’s uninterest in nuclear compromise.
Feb 16, 2023
◆
  • Henry Rome
President Biden delivers the 2022 State of the Union address in Washington - source: U.S. government
Brief Analysis
The State of the Union and the Middle East
A compendium of what the past three U.S. presidents have said—and not said—about the region in their annual speeches before Congress.
Feb 8, 2023
◆
  • Eric Feely
US and Israeli military planes participate in the 2023 Juniper Oak joint exercise over Ashdod, Israel - source: IDF
Brief Analysis
The Juniper Oak Military Exercise: Implications for Innovation, Experimentation, and U.S. Policy Toward Iran
Last week’s large, combined exercise was intended to assure friends and deter adversaries, but both goals will ultimately depend on fixing a flawed policy toward Iran.
Feb 1, 2023
◆
  • Michael Eisenstadt
Iranian and Russian flags on a table
Brief Analysis
After Ukraine: Russia’s Potential Military and Nuclear Compensation to Iran
Despite the obstacles to expanded cooperation, Russian aid could help Tehran promote repression at home and instability abroad, so the United States and its allies should seek to deter such collaboration wherever possible.
Jan 20, 2023
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  • Louis Dugit-Gros
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
  • Michael Eisenstadt
  • Farzin Nadimi
  • Henry Rome
Brief Analysis
Secretive Agenda for Pakistani Military Visit to Saudi Arabia and the UAE
Official mentions of “military and defense cooperation” could include sharing of nuclear and missile technology.
Jan 9, 2023
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Russian President Putin and Iranian President Raisi meet in Tehran in 2022 - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Making Iran’s Support for Russia More Costly
To foster doubts about the wisdom of deepening the relationship, Washington should stoke longstanding Iranian skepticism toward Russia and work with Europe to sanction additional entities involved in the drone program.
Jan 5, 2023
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  • Henry Rome
Crown Prince Muhammad and President Xi walking in Riyadh.
Brief Analysis
Assessing Xi Jinping’s Middle East Trip
His discussions on nuclear proliferation, energy markets, defense cooperation, and other issues offered numerous contrasts with President Biden’s summer meetings in Saudi Arabia—as well as some unexpected criticism of Iran.
Dec 22, 2022
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  • Grant Rumley
  • Carol Silber
  • Eric Feely
  • Sarah Cahn
  • Sude Akgundogdu
  • Lauren von Thaden
  • Faris Almaari
Saudi Arabia Flag
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
New Saudi Poll: Some Surprises on the U.S., Iran, Israel, Oil, and More
Saudis voiced their thoughts on global partners, internal dynamics, and regional issues, including opinions on the Iranian protests and nuclear dilemma.
Dec 16, 2022
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  • David Pollock
Video
Brief Analysis
Iran's Nuclear Proliferation Strategy: U.S. Policy Options
Three experts discuss how Washington might feasibly attempt to steer Tehran away from actively pursuing nuclear weapons.
Dec 16, 2022
◆
  • Michael Eisenstadt
  • Mahsa Rouhi
  • Suzanne Maloney
Articles & Testimony
Are the Saudis Reconsidering Their Nuclear Posture?
Various historical and recent factors suggest that the nuclear dimension of Gulf politics is again in flux amid a deepening world energy crisis.
Dec 12, 2022
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  • Simon Henderson
Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi meets Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman in Riyadh
Brief Analysis
What Saudi Arabia Wants from President Xi’s Visit
China is already one of the kingdom’s major commercial partners and a significant supplier of military and nuclear technology, but Riyadh wants more of each.
Dec 6, 2022
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  • Simon Henderson
  • Carol Silber
Eisenstadt monograph cover; U.S. "Plumbbob Hood" nuclear weapons test, 1957
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Iran's Nuclear Hedging Strategy:
Shaping the Islamic Republic's Proliferation Calculus
Tehran’s willingness to pause aspects of its nuclear program may offer opportunities to stoke regime concerns about the potential costs of moving forward.
Nov 29, 2022
◆
  • Michael Eisenstadt
Lieutenant General Asim Munir, newly appointed as the new Chief Of Army Staff of Pakistan, meets with President Arif Alvi in Islamabad - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Pakistan’s New Military Leader and the Gulf
For U.S. and Gulf officials alike, the appointment of a potential military dictator in the world’s only nuclear-armed Islamic state bears close watching.
Nov 28, 2022
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Venezuelan and Iranian flags flying during a state visit in Tehran - source: Reuters
Multimedia
Brief Analysis
Iran May Be Outsourcing Kamikaze Drone Production to Venezuela
Tehran, Caracas, and Moscow have been running a secretive air bridge just as Iran appears to be surging its transfer of attack drones to Russia, raising questions about whether these activities are linked.
Nov 17, 2022
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi

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Featured experts

Patrick Clawson
Patrick Clawson
Patrick Clawson is Morningstar senior fellow and director of research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Michael Singh
Michael Singh
Michael Singh is the Managing Director and Lane-Swig Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute.
Simon Henderson
Simon Henderson
Simon Henderson is the Baker fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy at The Washington Institute, specializing in energy matters and the conservative Arab states of the Persian Gulf.
Henry Rome
Henry Rome
Henry Rome is a Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, specializing in Iran sanctions, economic, and nuclear issues.
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