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Proliferation

Policy Analysis on Proliferation

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Brief Analysis
New EU Sanctions Indicate More Willingness to Hold Tehran Accountable
Although their ultimate effects are uncertain, the new sanctions are a powerful signal that European governments are readier than ever to confront the regime’s human rights violations, drone deliveries to Russia, and nuclear stalling.
Nov 15, 2022
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  • Henry Rome
  • Louis Dugit-Gros
Brief Analysis
Iran Faces Renewed Censure at Vienna Nuclear Meeting
A resolution condemning Tehran’s unwillingness to provide access to potential weaponization sites is an effective way to apply pressure, but also risks retaliation.
Nov 15, 2022
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  • Simon Henderson
An Iranian-made Shahed-136 drone in use by Russian forces in an attack on Kyiv, Ukraine - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
What Iran’s Drones in Ukraine Mean for the Future of War
Russia’s effective use of inexpensive Iranian aircraft points to challenges that other states may soon face elsewhere.
Nov 10, 2022
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  • Michael Knights
  • Alex Almeida
Brief Analysis
Snapback Sanctions on Iran: More Bark Than Bite?
Threatening to reimpose old UN sanctions would likely have little practical effect on Tehran’s ability to trade oil and export drones, while the plethora of other potential complications suggest that it should be treated as a tool of last resort.
Oct 25, 2022
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  • Henry Rome
  • Louis Dugit-Gros
Houthi leader Abdul-Malik Badruddin al-Houthi addresses a rally in Sanaa, Yemen - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
The Houthi Jihad Council: Command and Control in ‘the Other Hezbollah’
The Houthi relationship with the IRGC and Lebanese Hezbollah has grown to the point that regardless of whether fighting in Yemen wanes, the Gulf movement may still play an integrated role in Iran’s future military adventures.
October 2022
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  • Michael Knights
  • Adnan al-Gabarni
  • Casey Coombs
Baquer Namazi, a dual U.S.-Iranian citizen who had been imprisoned in Iran, shakes hands with an Omani official in Muscat - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
The Latest Chapter in Iran’s Hostage Diplomacy
U.S. policymakers should be careful about concluding that Tehran’s decision to relax restrictions on two detained American citizens has anything to do with the nuclear talks.
Oct 6, 2022
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  • Henry Rome
Articles & Testimony
Letting Iran Go Nuclear
Tehran's program continues to gallop ahead, and the United States is doing very little about it.
Sep 23, 2022
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  • Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
A New Iran Deal Won’t Prevent an Iranian Bomb
Tehran’s program is far more advanced than in 2015, so only a credible threat of force will stop the regime from crossing the nuclear weapons threshold.
Sep 9, 2022
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  • Dennis Ross
Articles & Testimony
In Rejecting Iran Nuclear Deal, Israeli Rivals Are of One Mind
Lapid and Netanyahu both oppose resuming the JCPOA—but they would be unlikely to say otherwise publicly even if they supported the latest proposals.
Sep 7, 2022
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  • Neri Zilber
Iranian presidential candidate Ebrahim Raisi speaking in 2021
Brief Analysis
Iran Garnering Internal Support for a Potential Nuclear Deal
Although it is still unclear if the Supreme Leader will approve the necessary compromises, regime officials are maximizing their room for maneuver by preparing the country either way—assuming the economy doesn’t force their hand.
Aug 22, 2022
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  • Omer Carmi
Brief Analysis
The Rushdie Attack and Iran’s Deceptive “Fatwas”
Whether or not Tehran is proven to be involved, the incident holds significant implications for the regime's international diplomacy and terrorist activity—not to mention its claims about the applicability of Khamenei’s “nuclear fatwa.”
Aug 15, 2022
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  • Mehdi Khalaji
Photo of a Shahed drone in an Iranian military parade near imagery of Supreme Leader Khamenei..
Brief Analysis
Iranian Drones to Russia: Capabilities and Limitations
Besides signaling that Iran has shifted to active military support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, the prospective transfer gives Moscow a stopgap option until its own advanced drones are ready for service.
Aug 1, 2022
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  • Farzin Nadimi
An Iranian soldier wearing an IRGC uniform salutes in front of an Iranin flag - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
The United States Needs a Better Strategy to Deter Iran
A “more for more” agreement might be possible, but only if Iranian leaders are genuinely afraid of what they could lose without one.
Jul 6, 2022
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  • Dennis Ross
Articles & Testimony
Israel Hoping for Shift in US Iran Policy from Diplomacy to Deterrence
A veteran Israeli security and intelligence official explains why the Biden administration must reinvigorate oil sanctions and demonstrate a commitment to act militarily.
Jun 30, 2022
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  • Zohar Palti
Nuclear centrifuges in Iran
Brief Analysis
Iran Nuclear Explainer
A brief summary of technical terms relating to the country’s nuclear progress.
Jun 2, 2022
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  • Simon Henderson
Qatari leader Emir Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Qatari Visit to Iran Suggests Possible Policy Breakthroughs
The emir will likely seek a role in reviving the nuclear agreement, as well as Iranian help with accommodating World Cup fans later this year.
May 11, 2022
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  • Simon Henderson
A Ghauri nuclear-capable missile on parade in Pakistan
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Renewed Saudi-Pakistan Contacts Revive Nuclear Fears
Deadlock in the Iran nuclear talks may prompt action by Riyadh, with Pakistani support.
Apr 27, 2022
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  • Simon Henderson
Pakistani men watch a televised address by Prime Minister Imran Khan on March 31, 2022 - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
The Clock Runs Out on Imran Khan as Pakistan’s Prime Minister
Things to watch going forward include Islamabad’s relationship with traditional cash source Saudi Arabia and its geopolitical posture toward Iran and Afghanistan.
Apr 11, 2022
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  • Simon Henderson
Israeli Minister of Defense Benny Gantz - source: Israeli Ministry of Defense
Video
Brief Analysis
Defense Minister Benny Gantz Discusses Israel's Strategic Challenges
The country's top defense official shares his insights on recent terrorist attacks, the Iran nuclear talks, the Ukraine war, expanding cooperation with regional countries, and more.
Apr 11, 2022
◆
  • Benny Gantz
Articles & Testimony
Why Arab Allies Don’t Trust the U.S. on Ukraine
“This will not stand,” the president said after Iraq invaded Kuwait, but no such fortitude has been evident in response to Iran’s continued aggression.
Apr 9, 2022
◆
  • Robert Satloff

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Featured experts

Patrick Clawson
Patrick Clawson
Patrick Clawson is Morningstar senior fellow and director of research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Michael Singh
Michael Singh
Michael Singh is the Managing Director and Lane-Swig Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute.
Simon Henderson
Simon Henderson
Simon Henderson is the Baker fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy at The Washington Institute, specializing in energy matters and the conservative Arab states of the Persian Gulf.
Henry Rome
Henry Rome
Henry Rome is a Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, specializing in Iran sanctions, economic, and nuclear issues.
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