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Proliferation

Policy Analysis on Proliferation

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Brief Analysis
Sunset of the Iran Arms Embargo:
The Narrow Path to a Policy Compromise
Delinking the embargo from the nuclear deal could offer the best hope of reducing tensions within the P5+1 while also limiting Iran’s access to sophisticated weaponry.
Jun 29, 2020
◆
  • Michael Singh
Brief Analysis
Iran Is Repeating Its Past Errors with the IAEA
To prevent the agency from issuing a noncompliance resolution, Tehran has been threatening to impede inspections, but this approach could easily backfire on the regime.
Jun 18, 2020
◆
  • Omer Carmi
Brief Analysis
Iran Signals a Toughened Stance by Adding to Its Naval Arsenal
The regime may eventually use larger vessels to project power beyond the Gulf, but even its more modest recent additions portend further confrontations and weapons proliferation in local waters.
Jun 18, 2020
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  • Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
The Caesar Act Comes Into Force (Part 2): Pressuring Hezbollah in Lebanon
In addition to targeting Hezbollah and other local actors who support the Assad regime and harm Lebanon’s economy, the new U.S. legislation can help bolster Beirut’s sovereignty.
Jun 12, 2020
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  • Hanin Ghaddar
Video
Brief Analysis
Iran's Asymmetric Naval Response to 'Maximum Pressure'
Three veteran observers of Iranian naval forces and doctrines assess the country's ability to punch above its weight in the Persian Gulf.
Jun 10, 2020
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  • Michael Connell
  • Farzin Nadimi
  • John Miller
Articles & Testimony
Iran Continues Its Nuclear Work, But Is It Weapons Grade?
An upcoming IAEA report will give Washington and Europe more clarity on where the nuclear program stands and whether united Western efforts to contain it are still possible.
Jun 1, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
What Turned the Battle for Tripoli?
A boost in Turkish drones and air defense systems enabled forces in Tripoli to establish local air superiority and ease pressure on the capital, leaving each side’s foreign patrons with tough choices about whether to escalate further or take steps to halt the fighting.
May 6, 2020
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  • Ben Fishman
  • Conor Hiney
Brief Analysis
Lebanon's Crises Offer a Chance to Address Hezbollah Violations in the South
The UN’s latest report makes clear that the dangerous situation will not improve on its own, compelling the international community to find new ways of addressing the group’s violations and the role that the Lebanese government and military play in enabling them.
May 5, 2020
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  • Assaf Orion
Brief Analysis
The Pandemic’s Implications for Iran’s Nuclear Program
Although the leadership in Tehran seems preoccupied with the coronavirus, the international community must still watch out for any attempts to exploit the situation via clandestine nuclear activities.
Apr 14, 2020
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  • Omer Carmi
Brief Analysis
The Faint Red Line: How the West Should Respond to the Syria Chemical Weapons Report
Europe and the United States can no longer dismiss the strategic and tactical relevance of the regime’s CW attacks, which have continued throughout the conflict and demand further military, diplomatic, and judicial action.
Apr 13, 2020
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  • Tobias Schneider
  • Theresa Lutkefend
Articles & Testimony
U.S. Policy in the Middle East Amid Great Power Competition
Viewing regional issues through this broader strategic lens will require Washington to accept painful trade-offs and take a tougher stance with difficult allies.
Mar 30, 2020
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  • Michael Singh
Brief Analysis
With COVID-19, Iran’s Dependence on China Grows
Beijing has steadily become Tehran’s economic ventilator, diplomatic prop, and military enabler, and the Iranians need this backstop now more than ever.
Mar 27, 2020
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  • Kevjn Lim
Brief Analysis
Khamenei Securitizes the Pandemic as the IRGC Mulls Regional Action
With the regime leadership accusing the United States of using bioweapons and fomenting other hateful disinformation, the potential for violence against U.S. forces and interests will likely escalate.
Mar 27, 2020
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  • Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Escalating Houthi Offensives in Yemen: U.S. Options
To keep recent rebel victories from cascading into a wider military collapse, Washington must urge the Gulf coalition to firm up the government’s forces and move more quickly on peace talks.
Mar 6, 2020
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  • Alex Almeida
  • Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
IAEA Reports Renew Questions About Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions
U.S. officials have ample grounds to reinvigorate diplomatic pressure after the world’s nuclear watchdog accused Iran of being uncooperative, but they need to focus on the right questions.
Mar 4, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson
Video
Brief Analysis
The IRGC Post-Soleimani: Political and Security Implications at Home and Abroad
Three leading Iran scholars explore how the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the broader regime will adapt their policies following the death of the seminal Qods Force commander.
Mar 3, 2020
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  • Ariane Tabatabai
  • Mehdi Khalaji
  • Farzin Nadimi
In-Depth Reports
Reading Trump in Tehran
A week after Donald Trump was elected president in November 2016, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei played coy, remarking, “I have no judgment on the American election...[Both parties have been] naughty toward us.” Of course, his true reaction was far more complex. On one hand, he saw in the president-elect—who
Feb 23, 2020
◆
  • Mehdi Khalaji
Articles & Testimony
Trump Is Right to Bide His Time in Renewing a Nuclear Treaty with Russia
Far from panicking, Washington should use negotiations with Moscow to begin addressing heretofore neglected nuclear threats.
Feb 19, 2020
◆
  • Michael Singh
Brief Analysis
The UN Exposes Houthi Reliance on Iranian Weapons
In addition to dispelling any lingering notion that last year’s Aramco attack came from Yemen, the report documents Iran’s efforts to help the rebels acquire advanced missiles, weapons components, and training.
Feb 13, 2020
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
Video
Brief Analysis
Shia Militias in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon Post-Soleimani
Will the various regional militias once controlled by Qasem Soleimani continue to take sometimes-unwanted direction from Tehran after his death? Read or watch a spirited conversation with three experts.
Jan 30, 2020
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Phillip Smyth
  • Hanin Ghaddar

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Featured experts

Patrick Clawson
Patrick Clawson
Patrick Clawson is Morningstar senior fellow and director of research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Michael Singh
Michael Singh
Michael Singh is the Managing Director and Lane-Swig Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute.
Simon Henderson
Simon Henderson
Simon Henderson is the Baker fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy at The Washington Institute, specializing in energy matters and the conservative Arab states of the Persian Gulf.
Henry Rome
Henry Rome
Henry Rome is a Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, specializing in Iran sanctions, economic, and nuclear issues.
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