Proliferation

Understanding the background of the twelve-day war and the considerations that shaped Iran’s past nuclear calculus can help illuminate the factors most likely to influence its future proliferation choices.

Iran’s leaders have several paths to restoring or reconfiguring their nuclear program—some more realistic or risky than others—so Washington should focus on shaping which route they choose rather than discounting the possibility altogether.

Reimposing old sanctions may not have much economic impact if China sidesteps them, but Washington could still use the mechanism to pressure Iran on returning to negotiations.

The two leaders should focus on articulating a vision for a diplomatic agreement with Iran, sketching a common roadmap on Gaza, setting the stage for further Arab-Israeli normalization, and updating the parameters of bilateral strategic cooperation for a new regional reality.

From insisting on zero enrichment to making the ceasefire conditional, officials should ensure that any post-conflict negotiations with Tehran fully address U.S. policy imperatives, including the need to prevent reconstitution of the nuclear program.

Three experts explore the war’s impact on global energy markets, Iran-Gulf relations, President Trump’s oil price calculations, and more.

Fears of an “all-out” war with Iran have been greatly overstated, and they fail to account for the Islamic Republic’s overriding desire to avoid such an outcome and the diverse repertoire it has developed to prevent one.

Four experts assess how outside players might respond to the showdown, and whether Tehran will switch up its calculus on procurement, attack tactics, and other military matters as the fight goes on.

The risk of nuclear breakout is probably greater today than before Israel’s military campaign, and simply taking out Fordow would not stop the regime from using suspected secret sites to produce nuclear weapons.