As investigators dig more deeply into a recent plot, they will soon confirm that it is not a rogue action, but rather the action of a rogue regime.
Daniel L. Glaser, Suzanne Maloney, and Katherine Bauer
Read or watch a conversation with former Treasury and State Department officials on how the Trump administration should go about renewing financial pressure on Iran's oil industry and other sectors.
Energy markets are sophisticated enough to absorb small amounts of bad news and presidential tweets, but they don't like protracted uncertainty.
As the regime’s strategy for countering the Trump administration continues to falter, will its traditional two-step of provocation and restraint give way to wider escalation?
Tehran has generally responded to pressure by issuing threats, ramping up its nuclear activities, accepting temporary limits, and, when the heat is turned up, launching cyber, military, and terrorist operations.
Tehran will likely resort to measured countermoves in the nuclear domain at first, but successful U.S. pressure could spur it to challenge JCPOA limits, take action in non-nuclear domains, or push back against U.S. and allied forces.
PolicyWatch
The regime’s most vulnerable point is its precarious banking system, whose persistent mismanagement, capital shortfalls, and lack of transparency have already sparked public protests.
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Pending policy decisions on reimposing sanctions will give Washington opportunities to calibrate its arsenal of measures against illicit Iranian financial activity.
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Numerous individual aircraft and front companies were added to the Treasury sanctions list, but naming even more of them could boost U.S. efforts to pressure Iran and close the IRGC’s Syrian air bridge.
Policy Forum
Barbara A. Leaf and Ali Shihabi
Can Washington turn its Arab partners' favorable rhetoric on the administration's new Iran policy into concrete actions to curb Tehran's regional adventurism? Join us for an expert conversation and live webcast on Tuesday, June 5.
