Qais al-Khazali Tries, Fails to Tone Down Militant Bluster

It took Qais al-Khazali, leader of Asaib Ahl al-Haq (AAH), seven days to publicly react to the Iran-Israel conflict, issuing a statement only on June 20. While counterparts in other Iran-backed militias in Iraq were quick to release aggressive statements, Khazali initially delegated the response to his militia’s security chief, Jawad al-Talibawi. However, it seems that under mounting pressure, he ultimately felt compelled to speak out personally.

Khazali condemned the “abhorrent threats to target the guardian leader, Grand Ayatollah Sayyid Ali al-Husseini Khamenei.” But unlike his counterpart—the leader of Harakat al-Nujaba—who previously threatened to attack U.S. military assets, diplomats, and even ordinary American citizens if Khamenei were harmed, Khazali made no such threats. Instead, he appealed to “the international community—its leaders, states, and organizations—to take urgent action to prevent this unacceptable transgression, which poses a serious threat to security and peace in the region and the world” (Figure 1).

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Khazali Under Pressure from Muqawama Base

Khazali’s seven-day silence generated pressure and even a sense of “embarrassment” within the self-styled muqawama circles. Just hours before his eventual statement, a little-known X account named Walai Muhandis—with only 114 followers as of June 24—posted a provocative message tagging Khazali’s account. The message read: “We, a group from the leadership of Asaib Ahl al-Haq, call on Sheikh al-Amin, Qais al-Khazali… to break his silence and take a firm and decisive stance against the Zionist entity. His absence from the scene at this sensitive time does not reflect a courageous position. We are embarrassed in front of the Iraqi people, who are demanding a response from you” (Figure 2). 

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Despite having only a small number of followers, the Walai Muhandis account gained significant traction: the post received over 42,000 views and more than 200 comments as of June 24—highlighting how sensitive and important this issue is in Iraq, particularly among the Shia population. While the identity of the account owner cannot be verified—and the claim of being an AAH senior member remains unconfirmed—it is clear that the person behind the account understands the pressure this issue places on Asaib Ahl al-Haq and its leader.

Notably, Walai Muhandis quickly responded to Khazali’s eventual statement, appearing to praise it while simultaneously calling for a firmer stance. The new message stated “Following our appeal to Sheikh al-Amin Qais al-Khazali in a post five hours ago regarding his position on the ongoing war, His Eminence responded to the call and issued a powerful tweet. We now await another tweet from him regarding the American occupation (Figure 3).

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Qais's balancing act: reformed character or closet terrorist?

During the post October 7 chain of events, Khazali has been showing a tendency to distance himself from aggressive rhetoric and kinetic action. While his ideological roots remain deeply extremist and firmly tied to the Iranian regime, and while he still portrays his role in the deaths of unarmed Americans as “honourable”, his pragmatic instincts are becoming more visible. His recent appeal to the international community to help end the war to maintain the peace in the region marks a clear departure from the traditional rhetoric of the muqawama, particularly among its more radical factions. 

This reflects Khazali’s ambitions and his ongoing attempt to have the best of both worlds: to remain a prominent figure within the so-called Axis of Resistance, with all the influence and benefits that status confers, while also positioning himself as a credible political actor who can be accepted and trusted by both domestic and international stakeholders. In moments when escalation risks triggering U.S. or Israeli retaliation, Khazali’s pragmatism – and survival instinct - takes precedence. But when potential costs are lower, his ideological extremism resurfaces—underscoring the dual nature of his public persona. If pressure were lifted on Qais, he could very easily flex back towards the militancy that got him designated for terrorism and human rights abuses under U.S. sanctions. 

To truly distance from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and from anti-civilian violence in Iraq, Qais al-Khazali would need to take major risks. As one of the authors noted in a recent Hudson Institute article, “Qais and AAH need to cease their violent attacks on Iraqi civilians, show a clean record in the next November 2025 national elections and subsequent government formation period, and power down the rampant AAH penetration of Iraq’s economic levers, especially oil smuggling activities that often benefit Iran …. Qais would also need to show real commitment to changing the nature of his organization permanently and entering a truth and reconciliation process to account for the movement’s crimes against Iraqi civilians.”