Policy Analysis

Iran-backed terrorist groups and militias in Iraq displayed caution in how they commemorated the sixth anniversary of the January 3, 2020 killings, an anniversary that fell just 17 days short of the Inauguration of a second Trump administration

While Iraqi fears of a resurgence of ISIS are legitimate, understanding the realities and opportunities presented with Syria's new government while rejecting sectarian rhetoric are vital for the future of Iraq's relationship with its neighbor.

In this episode of the Institute’s Syria Breakdown series, Turkey analyst Soner Cagaptay traces the revolutionary transformation of Ankara's relationship with Damascus from heated enemies to the closest of allies.

The regime’s fears of new oil restrictions, simmering domestic unrest, eroding regional deterrence, and unpredictable U.S.-Israeli military action can all be leveraged to steer Khamenei away from racing toward a nuclear weapon.

Watch a series of panels featuring senior former Israeli and Lebanese military leaders as they discuss the state of ongoing ceasefire measures along the Israeli-Lebanese border.

Moscow’s position has weakened, but not for long, raising the need for quick U.S. action on sanctions, investments, and broader economic assistance.

If Washington and its European partners fail to remediate ongoing disputes over trade rights and Western Sahara, they may leave room for Russia and China to assert more influence in the kingdom.

Choosing a reform-minded president would be a good first step, but absent a concerted effort to consolidate the setbacks to Hezbollah, the organization will simply reassert its murderous grip.

Beijing consistently supported the regime’s brutal repressive measures, so cozying up to the rebel-led transition government may be more difficult than it expects.

In this episode of the Institute’s Syria Breakdown series, Russia analyst Anna Borshchevskaya explains why Russia's long military intervention in Syria failed to protect the regime of its local ally, Bashar al-Assad, from collapse in the face of a stunning rebel advance.

The Trump administration should give nuclear diplomacy a final shot—while preparing to use military force.

At a time when Westerners are questioning the Islamist takeover in Damascus, Sunni Arab treatment of the Assad family’s broader Alawite base will offer insights into the nascent government’s true stance on religious tolerance, transitional justice, and state-building.

After blows to Iranian proxies across the region, reformists led by President Pezeshkian are prioritizing diplomacy and economic recovery, whereas hardliners are lamenting lost battlefield opportunities and seeking to preserve the regime.

An effective response to the group's persistent aggression should include strengthening the United Nations verification and inspection mechanism, preparing sanctions against actors who violate UN resolutions, and taking steps to interdict arms transfers.

The leader of Asaib Ahl al-Haq has been abroad for weeks, and his movements (and those of his deputies back home) are worth watching closely.

The Hashd may already be deterred somewhat by recent events, but Trump will likely seek to maintain the pressure by withholding annual military assistance to Baghdad.

Despite questions about the utility of its huge missile arsenal—whose importance has only increased since the collapse of the “axis of resistance”—Iran will likely double down on this capability to ensure the viability of its military strategy.

Iran’s Middle East “axis of resistance” and the Eurasian axis it shares with China, Russia, and North Korea are increasingly challenging the global and regional order, highlighting the need for more partnerships and a comprehensive counterstrategy with special efforts focusing on Tehran.

Syrian civil society figures join a former U.S. official to discuss local sentiments on the ground and assess the daunting challenges of building a better state.

The delegation’s findings on key political and security issues will have a major impact on future U.S. engagement with Syria’s new leaders, including the decision on whether or not to remove sanctions.