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Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Population Census in Iraq: A Step Towards Future Development or Imminent Political Conflict?
Last week’s population census in Iraq became the country's first in almost three decades.
Nov 28, 2024
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Azhar Al-Rubaie
Video
Brief Analysis
The Hezbollah-Israel Ceasefire and U.S. Leadership: What Comes Next
Join us for a special expert webcast examining the prospects for lasting peace in light of the Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire. Watch live starting at 10:00 a.m. EST (1500 GMT) on Monday, December 2, 2024.
December 2, 2024, starting at 10:00 a.m. EST (1500 GMT)
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Hanin Ghaddar
Matthew Levitt
David Schenker
Assaf Orion
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iraqi Militias Downscaling Their Anti-Israel Actions
Iraqi militias were already powering down for weeks before the November 18 Israeli warning, after which attacks dropped off almost entirely.
Nov 26, 2024
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Ameer al-Kaabi
Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik
◆
Militia Spotlight
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Muqawama List of U.S. “Greatest Hits” Gives Insight Into Attack Cell Structure
A poster of 36 militia “martyrs” provides useful data about how was killed by the U.S. at certain times and places.
Nov 26, 2024
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Michael Knights
Ameer al-Kaabi
◆
Militia Spotlight
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
If Iran Gets the Bomb:
Weapons, Force Posture, Strategy
The decision would require tradeoffs affecting the security, survivability, and military credibility of Tehran's nascent arsenal.
Nov 25, 2024
◆
Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
How the B-2 Can Help Reinforce U.S. Messaging to Iran
Amid serious escalation in the Middle East, the United States should more clearly frame its recent deployment of B-2 and B-52 bombers to the region as a warning to Iran—and reinforce this with more posturing, messaging, and accelerated deployment of deep penetrators.
Nov 21, 2024
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Farzin Nadimi
James E. Shepard
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
What Nineveh’s Municipal Council Reveals about the Iran-Turkey Power Struggle in Iraq
The ongoing tensions in Nineveh's municipal council highlight how regional powers vie for influence in Iraq's local elections.
Nov 20, 2024
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Filip Sommer
Rebwar Rauf Salih
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Winds of Change: Ankara’s Subtle Shifts Towards Reconciliation with Kurdish Elements in Turkey
Signs that Ankara is interested in a potential reconciliation with the PKK could lead an end to a decades-long conflict and have ripple effects across the region, although numerous obstacles remain.
Nov 20, 2024
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Wladimir van Wilgenburg
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iraqi Militias Unveil SAD Aircraft Carrier
Saraya Awliya al-Dam launched a Shahed drone from a small boat in an apparent effort to draw attention by demonstrating a rudimentary new capability.
Nov 19, 2024
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Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith
◆
Militia Spotlight
Articles & Testimony
Addressing Entities of Particular Concern: Non-State Actors and Egregious Violations of Religious Freedom
A terrorism expert assesses how Washington and its partners can best counter—and in some cases engage—jihadist actors in Afghanistan and the Sahel amid growing limitations on U.S. influence in such locales.
Nov 19, 2024
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Anti-Israel Attacks by Iraq-Based Group with Implied Saudi Membership
A group with a Saudi-linked name has claimed six attacks on Israel, but they were probably launched from Iraq using Kataib Hezbollah and/or Houthi drone teams.
Nov 19, 2024
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Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights
Crispin Smith
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Militia Spotlight
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Profile: Directorate of Education, al-Hashd al-Shabi (DEHS)
An Iraqi militia directorate that has grown into a major state-funded educational foundation, arranging university education for students tied to the PMF and sending some to Iran on scholarships paid by Tehran.
Nov 18, 2024
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Sary Mumayiz
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Militia Spotlight: Profiles
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Semiconductors, AI, and the Gulf:
Policy Considerations for the United States
In seeking to bolster partnerships and simultaneously protect U.S. technology, officials will need to navigate export options ranging from permissive to restrictive.
Nov 18, 2024
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Elizabeth Dent
Grant Rumley
Articles & Testimony
3 Unanswered Questions That Will Shape Trump’s Middle East Policy
The nascent administration needs to clarify its stances on preventing an Iranian nuclear breakout, investing in Arab-Israel military cooperation, and responding to potential West Bank annexations.
Nov 16, 2024
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
With Its Conventional Deterrence Diminished, Will Iran Go for the Bomb?
Although recent military setbacks have fueled Iranian talk about a possible nuclear breakout, uncertainty about the risks, costs, and utility of weaponization may give the United States leverage to ensure that Tehran continues to hedge.
Nov 15, 2024
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Before Maximum Pressure, Trump Needs an Iran Strategy
The administration should first consider how enhanced sanctions would fit into its broader regional policy before talking about how to get them going again.
Nov 14, 2024
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Richard Nephew
Video
Brief Analysis
U.S. Election 2024: Views from the Middle East
A panel of distinguished journalists from across the Middle East discuss regional perspectives on the second Trump administration’s potential approach to critical issues of war and peace.
Nov 12, 2024
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David Horovitz
Barcin Yinanc
Nadim Koteich
Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
Donald Trump’s Return Could Bring a More Peaceful Middle East
A look at how his new administration might combine old and new policies to tamp down the past year of war and address other threats.
Nov 9, 2024
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Jeffrey Sonnenfeld
Dennis Ross
Adam Boehler
Roya Hakakian
Steven Tian
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Gulf Energy Transition: Assessing Saudi and Emirati Goals
The energy transition in both countries includes a continued need for fossil fuels while reducing emissions—though Riyadh hopes to export “all forms of energy” down the road, and Abu Dhabi seeks nuclear advances to meet power demand.
Nov 8, 2024
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Noam Raydan
Articles & Testimony
Gulf Leaders: "Welcome Back Donald, It’s Time to Get Down to Business"
Many leaders seem eager for the return of a U.S. administration that has shown a predilection for encouraging big business ties—though the ten weeks before Inauguration Day will be fraught with risks of new or escalated regional crises.
Nov 7, 2024
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Simon Henderson
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