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Brief Analysis
Energy Watchdog Predicts Big Oil Surplus by 2030
Implied lower prices would weaken economic forecasts for major Middle East oil producers.
Jun 14, 2024
◆
Simon Henderson
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Avoiding the Election Error in Tunisia:
Why U.S. Policy Should Focus on Real Reform, Not Votes
An opaque process and an apathetic electorate are among the reasons the contest does not warrant U.S. scrutiny.
Jun 13, 2024
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Sabina Henneberg
Sarah Yerkes
Brief Analysis
How Hamas Is Trying to Shape the “Day After” in Gaza
A detailed look at what the group has been telling other Palestinians as it maneuvers to retake a role in the wider national movement and rebuild its forces.
Jun 13, 2024
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Ehud Yaari
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Eid al-Ghadir: A Renewed Debate for Iraq's Shia Politicians
Muqtada al-Sadr’s recent attempt to designate Eid al-Ghadir a national holiday has sparked fierce debates and threatens to further destabilize the Iraqi political system in the coming months.
Jun 12, 2024
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Waqas al-Kadi
Brief Analysis
With Gantz Out, Can Netanyahu Resist the Far Right’s Pull?
U.S. officials are wary of Israel’s expanding political minefield and prefer to avoid direct intervention on domestically sensitive issues, but the policy implications of Gantz’s resignation—particularly the strengthening of the far right—will make it difficult to avoid weighing in.
Jun 11, 2024
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David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
IAEA Censure Risks Iranian Escalation
Tehran has a history of stepping up its nuclear violations after public rebukes; in the current environment, such escalation could have regional proliferation implications.
Jun 10, 2024
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Simon Henderson
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Suwayda Protests Continue Despite Growing Pressure
The protest movement’s ability to weather pressures from the Assad regime has allowed Suwayda to remain an impressive display of solidarity, tenacity, and bravery, alongside a willingness after over a decade of conflict in Syria to still demand a better future.
Jun 7, 2024
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Ishtar Al Shami
Brief Analysis
A Kuwaiti Reset?
The new emir’s suspension of parliament, followed by the appointment of a prime minister and crown prince, suggests a different direction for the oil-rich Gulf state.
Jun 7, 2024
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Simon Henderson
David Schenker
Articles & Testimony
Iran Targets Jordan: The Kingdom Joins the Theocracy’s List of Enemies
Tehran and its proxies have been doing everything they can to destabilize Jordan during the Gaza war, from inciting protests and increasing drug and weapons smuggling to escalating armed threats from Iraq.
Jun 5, 2024
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David Schenker
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Aviation Accidents Aren’t Caused by U.S. Sanctions
President Raisi’s fatal crash put a spotlight on the dire state of aviation safety in Iran, but the regime’s gross mismanagement and corrupt profiteering are to blame, not foreign sanctions.
Jun 5, 2024
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Most of Iran’s Latest Presidential Aspirants Have a Domestic Background
Few of the prospective candidates have shown much interest in or talent for national security affairs, and none has articulated a vision for tamping down Iran’s aggression at home or abroad.
Jun 4, 2024
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Patrick Clawson
Maps & Graphics
Articles & Testimony
Mapping Clashes Along the Israel-Lebanon Border
A regularly updated visual tracker of northern border attacks by Hezbollah, the IDF, and Palestinian groups during the Hamas-Israel war.
Jun 4, 2024
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Hanin Ghaddar
Ana Estrada Hamm
Miller Greene
Audrey Kost
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Where Iraqis Landed in the Supreme Leader's Seating Plan
A ceremony held by Khamenei's office gave some clues about the pecking order of the Iraqi "resistance," with political players at the forefront and militia fighters and propagandists in the second tier.
Jun 3, 2024
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Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights
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Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
Improving an Overlooked Aspect of the Gaza Ceasefire Proposal
As laid out in President Biden’s speech, the initial terms of the proposed deal include a disturbing imbalance in who guarantees that Hamas and Israel fulfill their commitments under the agreement—a problem that should be fixed now rather than later.
Jun 3, 2024
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
West Bank Economics Are Key to Stabilizing the Palestinian Authority—or Forcing Its Collapse
If implemented in full, Israel’s latest tax, banking, and victim-compensation measures could bring the West Bank’s two decades of relative stability crashing down—along with any plans to have the PA play a postwar role in Gaza.
May 31, 2024
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Neomi Neumann
Video
Brief Analysis
Pursuing a Stable Peace in Yemen that Preserves U.S. Interests
The U.S. ambassador to Yemen joins an expert conflict practitioner to discuss Washington’s policy options for resolving the civil war.
May 31, 2024
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Nadwa Al-Dawsari
Steven Fagin
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Behind Houthi Attacks on Ships Operated by Greece-Based Companies
Links to Israel-linked companies, especially in light of the Rafah invasion, are again the culprit.
May 31, 2024
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Noam Raydan
Farzin Nadimi
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Maritime Spotlight
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Kataib Hezbollah's Raba Allah Undertakes Unclaimed Attacks on U.S. Brands
The vigilante group appears to have targeted American-branded businesses in Baghdad while taking pains not to claim the attacks, which embarrassed the Iraqi government.
May 30, 2024
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Michael Knights
Ameer al-Kaabi
Hamdi Malik
◆
Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
Beyond the Ballot Box: U.S. Priorities in North Africa’s 2024 Elections
By recognizing the limits of electoral processes in countries like Algeria, Libya, and Tunisia, Washington can focus more on addressing economic, social, and institutional challenges, managing regional dynamics, and engaging strategically with global competitors.
May 30, 2024
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Sabina Henneberg
Amine Ghoulidi
Brief Analysis
What to Expect from the Latest China-Arab Forum
Attendees will likely focus on the Gaza crisis and trumpet new cooperation agreements, but these CASCF meetings are more notable for what they reveal about the limits of Chinese influence in the Middle East.
May 29, 2024
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Rebecca Redlich
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