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Articles & Testimony
Russia’s Defense Ties in the Middle East Poised to Rebound
Demand for Russian weapons has hardly disappeared—MENA officials would see even a limited or temporary Ukraine deal as a green light to quickly take advantage of Moscow’s new supply chains, so Washington should prepare accordingly.
June 2025
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Anna Borshchevskaya
Matt Tavares
Brief Analysis
Reducing the U.S. Presence in Syria Too Quickly Could Help the Islamic State
Besides testing Syria’s new authorities on a mission they are not yet ready to handle by themselves, Washington also has an unprecedented chance to curtail the group in areas that were difficult to reach under the old regime.
Jun 4, 2025
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Ido Levy
Brief Analysis
Nuclear Talks and Iran’s Missile Program: Addressing the Overlooked Arsenal
Given Iran’s unchecked missile buildup since the last nuclear deal, any future agreement should include enforceable limits on the development and stockpiling of long-range missiles to ensure lasting regional security and nonproliferation.
Jun 3, 2025
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Farzin Nadimi
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Profile: Harakat al-Abdal
An inveterate opponent of the United States and Israel, the enigmatic Harakat al-Abdal may have become an entirely Qods Force-operated, Syria-based entity years ago, posing questions about where its fighters now reside and what became of its PMF status in Iraq.
Jun 2, 2025
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Sary Mumayiz
Michael Knights
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Militia Spotlight: Profiles
Articles & Testimony
Is a Good Iran Deal Possible?
If carefully negotiated and given enough time to demonstrate results, a new deal could prevent a crisis in the near term and create a foundation for regional stability down the road.
May 26, 2025
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Richard Nephew
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Foreign Minister Knows How to Speak Trump’s Language—Literally
In a bid to appease—and manipulate—the pioneer of “Twitter diplomacy,” Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator has adopted President Trump’s social media style while seeking favorable terms for the next big deal.
May 30, 2025
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Holly Dagres
Brief Analysis
UNIFIL’s Fork in the Road
The time for inertia is over—this summer, Security Council members will have a rare and urgent chance to break the spell of illusory “peacekeeping” and advance a model that actually helps keep the peace between Israel and Lebanon.
May 29, 2025
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Assaf Orion
Articles & Testimony
Everyday Life in the Islamic State’s Wilayat al-Raqqah
An in-depth study of how the Islamic State’s administrative apparatus and activities in its Syrian “capital” affected local residents, and how it sought to instrumentalize the populace in a quest to sustain its wider international state-building project for the long term.
May 2025
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Kataib Hezbollah Sides with Sudani in Power Struggle Against Eidani
The Iran-backed militant group is signaling its seriousness about elections, aiming for better results in heavily populated Basra, and seeking to keep its rivals separated.
May 27, 2025
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Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights
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Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
Setting Expectations with Syria on Countering the Islamic State
After an encouraging Trump-Sharaa meeting, Washington and its partners must now facilitate the complex work of creating timelines and implementing new security arrangements to constrain the jihadist group.
May 27, 2025
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Devorah Margolin
Articles & Testimony
Will Trump Dump Netanyahu? Here's When Israel Will Find Out
A ten-year memorandum of understanding lapses during the president’s term, and he will have to decide whether negotiating a new deal serves American interests.
May 26, 2025
◆
Dennis Ross
Video
Brief Analysis
Seizing the Moment of Opportunity in Syria: Guidelines for U.S. Action
Four experts discuss what the Trump administration needs to do to follow through on the landmark talks with President Sharaa, from sorting through the complex web of sanctions to managing allied expectations and safely handing over the counter-IS mission.
May 22, 2025
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Matthew Levitt
Devorah Margolin
Souhire Medini
David Schenker
Brief Analysis
Disarming Palestinian Factions in Lebanon Means Disarming Hezbollah
Given their deep historical and present-day coordination, Beirut needs to change its mindset of treating these groups separately and formulate a unified strategy for disarming them all—and the sooner the better.
May 21, 2025
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Hanin Ghaddar
Ehud Yaari
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Assessing the Gaza Death Toll After Eighteen Months of War
Health officials have compiled a largely comprehensive list, but questions remain about the Gaza ministry’s opaque revision process and vetting of family reports—along with unknown deaths and missing persons.
May 21, 2025
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Gabriel Epstein
Articles & Testimony
A Potential "Interim" Iran Nuclear Deal Sounds Great, But It Isn’t
Now is the time to exert Washington's greatly expanded leverage, forcing Tehran to choose between a painful future with enrichment and other subversive tools in its arsenal or a hopeful future without them.
May 21, 2025
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Deporting Hamas’s Top Brass: A Path to Ending the War in Gaza
Although Hamas is still unwilling to discuss full disarmament, granting safe passage to hundreds of commanders could have similar effects on the ground while enabling the parties to end the fighting and reach a viable “day after” agreement.
May 20, 2025
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Ehud Yaari
Brief Analysis
The Islamic State Attacks the New Syrian Government
Even before a high-profile new attack in the east, shifting trends in the number, nature, and location of plots showed why the United States isn’t quite ready to take a victory lap in the battle against IS in Syria.
May 19, 2025
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Articles & Testimony
A New Energy Order in the UAE and Saudi Arabia
The two Gulf states are combining fossil fuel production with ambitions to become low-carbon leaders, and Washington risks getting left behind if it ignores the trend.
May 19, 2025
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Noam Raydan
Articles & Testimony
What the End of the Houthi Campaign Means for U.S. Power
Despite the embarrassing PR, “mowing the grass” by targeting Houthi capabilities and personnel has value if repeated periodically—perhaps by an Israeli-Arab “Red Sea security group” if Washington is no longer willing to take the lead.
May 19, 2025
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Michael Knights
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Iraqi Kurds Could Facilitate and Mediate in PKK-Turkish Peace Process
New developments in the PKK-Turkey peace process are a window of opportunity for Iraqi Kurdish parties to stabilize areas of Iraqi Kurdistan affected by the conflict and help facilitate a lasting peace.
May 18, 2025
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Wladimir van Wilgenburg
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