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  • Policy Analysis

Proliferation

Policy Analysis on Proliferation

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Articles & Testimony
While Washington Argues, Iran Makes Nuclear Advances
A closer look at the technical progress being made under the country’s new nuclear chief—and his potential links with the Pakistani scientist who first gave Tehran weaponization know-how.
Oct 15, 2021
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  • Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
What AQ Khan’s Diaries Tell About Pakistan’s Drive for a Nuclear Bomb
The custodian of the infamous scientist’s four-decade-long journal offers new insights into his proliferation role and relationship with Pakistani military authorities.
Oct 12, 2021
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  • Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
How Iran’s Deadly Tanker Attack Is Linked to the Nuclear Deal
If the United States does not respond to the drone strike off Oman, it could impair rather than facilitate progress on the JCPOA talks.
Aug 11, 2021
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  • Robert Satloff
Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, gestures while speaking
Brief Analysis
What If It’s Not a Tactic? Khamenei’s Waning Faith in the JCPOA
The Supreme Leader’s rhetoric in recent months indicates that Iran's experience under the nuclear deal has made him gun-shy about returning to that framework.
Aug 3, 2021
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  • Omer Carmi
U.S. and Iranian flags
Articles & Testimony
Iran’s Gift to President Biden
Although Tehran’s specific JCPOA demand may not be feasible, it opens the door to negotiating a new nuclear deal.
Aug 1, 2021
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  • Michael Singh
Articles & Testimony
To Deter Iran, Give Israel a Big Bomb
In addition to renegotiating key parts of the JCPOA, expanding Israel’s arsenal is the best way to keep Tehran off the nuclear weapons threshold.
Jul 23, 2021
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  • Dennis Ross
Articles & Testimony
Biden Wants to Leave the Middle East, But He’s in a Vicious Bombing Cycle in Iraq
Caught between aggressive Tehran-backed militias and a skeptical Congress, the administration needs a better approach.
Jul 2, 2021
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  • Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
The Iran Nuclear Deal Isn’t the Problem. Iran Is.
Tehran’s provision of training and weapons to regional militants never stopped even under heavy U.S. sanctions, so the Biden administration needs to do much more than just reinstate the JCPOA.
Jun 29, 2021
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  • James Jeffrey
  • Dennis Ross
Figure 1: Rocket and drone attacks on coalition "points of presence".
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iraq’s Drone and Rocket Epidemic, By the Numbers
Attacks on coalition points of presence are increasing in quantity and quality, making U.S. fatalities increasingly likely unless deterrence is restored.
Jun 27, 2021
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  • Michael Knights
  • Crispin Smith
◆ Militia Spotlight
Articles & Testimony
Have We Already Failed to Ensure That Iran ‘Never Gets a Nuclear Weapon’?
Such weapons have spread surprisingly slowly since the end of World War II, but this template may be changing amid unsustainable ambiguity over the future of Tehran’s program.
Jun 25, 2021
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  • Simon Henderson
Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, casts his vote for president
Brief Analysis
From Rouhani to Raisi: Pressing Questions on the Eve of Iran’s Election
With Ebrahim Raisi’s road to the presidency seemingly paved, the regime has been working to prevent low voter turnout and give him a vote of confidence through a landslide win.
Jun 17, 2021
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  • Omer Carmi
Brief Analysis
Sword of Jerusalem vs. Guardian of the Walls: Gaza and the Next Lebanon War
The military particulars of the clash between Hamas and IDF doctrines reveal much common ground with potential future conflicts involving the other members of Iran’s “axis of resistance.”
Jun 15, 2021
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  • Assaf Orion
Iran's navy commander speaks in front of a map
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Atlantic Voyage: Implications of Naval Deployments to Venezuela or Syria
The maiden voyage may just be a token political and training mission to boost morale—or the first step in sending long-range missiles, drones, fast-attack boats, and other materiel to Tehran’s allies in the Caribbean or Mediterranean.
Jun 15, 2021
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  • Farzin Nadimi
Qais in military attire
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Qais al-Khazali Doubles Down on His Muqawama Membership
The militia leader has not hesitated to provide court-quality evidence that he and his movement Asaib Ahl al-Haq are actively involved in attacks on U.S. forces.
Jun 7, 2021
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  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
  • Crispin Smith
◆ Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
Iran Nuclear Watchdog Report Suggests Impact of Suspected Israeli Sabotage
News of apparent enrichment setbacks has been offset somewhat by troubling developments in other aspects of the program, not to mention sharp Israeli warnings, diplomatic uncertainty in Vienna, and a pair of sobering nuclear anniversaries.
Jun 1, 2021
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  • Simon Henderson
U.S. and Iranian flags
Articles & Testimony
For Diplomacy to Work, Iran Must Understand That It Cannot Overplay Its Hand
Although the Biden administration strongly favors a diplomatic path to ensuring Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon, it needs to show that it will exercise other options if Tehran makes a viable deal impossible.
Apr 26, 2021
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  • Dennis Ross
U.S. and Iranian flags
Articles & Testimony
Iran Moves Closer to a Diplomatic Breakthrough That May Upset Israel
A bevy of Israeli security officials will soon visit Washington against a backdrop of Vienna talks, Saudi engagement with Tehran, and continued nuclear moves.
Apr 22, 2021
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  • Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Bibi “Natanzyahu” Plays Bad Cop on Iran
Washington’s conspicuous silence over the nuclear sabotage at Natanz no doubt stems from the fact that Israel has bought more time for negotiations.
Apr 14, 2021
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  • David Pollock
Iranian sailors on board a naval vessel in the Strait of Hormuz
Brief Analysis
Iran and Israel’s Undeclared War at Sea (Part 2): The Potential for Military Escalation
Although both sides have sought to keep their tit-for-tat maritime attacks under control, they pose a substantial risk of miscalculation and escalation that could jeopardize international shipping.
Apr 13, 2021
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  • Farzin Nadimi
Articles & Testimony
‘Suspicious’ Blackout at Iranian Nuclear Site Almost Certain to Prompt Retaliation
Israel was silent the last time there was a mysterious explosion at Natanz, but this time Iran is not only being embarrassed, it is being humiliated.
Apr 12, 2021
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  • Simon Henderson

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Featured experts

Patrick Clawson
Patrick Clawson
Patrick Clawson is Morningstar senior fellow and director of research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Michael Singh
Michael Singh
Michael Singh is the Managing Director and Lane-Swig Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute.
Simon Henderson
Simon Henderson
Simon Henderson is the Baker fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy at The Washington Institute, specializing in energy matters and the conservative Arab states of the Persian Gulf.
Henry Rome
Henry Rome
Henry Rome is a Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, specializing in Iran sanctions, economic, and nuclear issues.
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