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Gulf States

Policy Analysis on Gulf States

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Brief Analysis
Prospects for an Iranian “July Surprise” During Biden’s Gulf Trip
Tehran may see the president’s attendance at the GCC+3 summit as a tempting opportunity to scuttle a U.S.-Gulf reset, perhaps by using a cyber or military provocation to humiliate the hosts and demonstrate America’s inability to protect them.
Jul 11, 2022
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  • Michael Eisenstadt
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salmon durnig a meeting with Russian President Vladimor Putin in Rihady - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
A Picture Could Paint a Thousand Words When Biden Meets MbS
Although political constraints in Washington, Jerusalem, and Riyadh could make substantive progress hard to come by, a few good photo ops may be all that's needed to deem the visit a success.
Jul 8, 2022
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  • Simon Henderson
Satellite map of wider Rea Sea with country names
Brief Analysis
Getting to an Israeli-Saudi Deal on Tiran and Sanafir
Efforts to reach an agreement during President Biden’s visit are laudable, but the administration must take care to ensure that any deal with Riyadh preserves the crucial regional security arrangements enshrined in the Egypt-Israel peace treaty.
Jul 7, 2022
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  • David Schenker
Articles & Testimony
One Small Handshake for the United States, One Giant Leap for U.S.-Saudi Relations
President Biden has a powerful moral imperative for ending his feud with the crown prince: to ensure that the kingdom’s gradual pivot away from extremism doesn’t falter.
Jun 29, 2022
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  • Robert Satloff
Vice President Joe Biden arrives in Saudi Arabia
Articles & Testimony
Can Biden Convince Saudis to See the Western Position on Russia?
Improving U.S. relations with Riyadh is the only way to shift the Saudi stance toward Russia—failing that, Biden’s trip is unlikely to yield a strategic success.
Jun 28, 2022
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Articles & Testimony
The Facts on What’s Behind Our Energy Crunch and High Gas Prices
An expert untangles the many factors driving energy costs amid complications such as the Ukraine crisis, U.S.-Saudi diplomacy, and the green debate.
Jun 24, 2022
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  • Simon Henderson
Vice President Joe Biden arrives in Saudi Arabia
Articles & Testimony
Engaging the Saudis Does Not Require Biden to Forgo Our Concern for Human Rights
The president will still be able to set boundaries with Riyadh—while also addressing other major issues such as national security, rampant energy costs, and normalization with Israel.
Jun 22, 2022
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  • Dennis Ross
Ships of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet on exercise in the Persian Gulf
Articles & Testimony
Fixing Washington’s Gulf Rift
From Abu Dhabi and Riyadh’s perspective, there is no substitute for an American partner with the will to militarily deter or answer Iran’s regional aggression.
Jun 21, 2022
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  • David Schenker
Israeli and UAE flags flying together in Abu Dhabi - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
The Abraham Accords and the Changing Shape of the Middle East
A veteran U.S. diplomat reflects on the decades of direct engagement that paved the way to the accords, which have since opened a new avenue for curbing Iran and reanimating Israeli-Palestinian progress.
Jun 21, 2022
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  • Dennis Ross
President Joe Biden speaks on the phone in the Oval Office of the White House
Articles & Testimony
A Month Out, the Spin Begins on Expectations of Biden’s Saudi Arabia Trip
Despite the recent emphasis on Washington’s “oil vs. human rights” dilemma, the visit’s greatest impact may wind up falling in the Arab-Israel arena.
Jun 15, 2022
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  • Simon Henderson
High Oil Prices, Middle East Politics Cast Shadow Over Summer’s Start
The Biden administration is seeking to break a stalemate with MbS in Riyadh, but moves by Russia and Iran will also affect the trajectory of energy markets.
May 31, 2022
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  • Simon Henderson
Somali president Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in 2022 - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Return of Old Leader Presents New Opportunities in Somalia
The Biden administration should be encouraged by the incoming president’s ties to the UAE and apparent openness to bolstering the counterterrorism fight and normalizing with Israel.
May 26, 2022
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  • Ido Levy
UAE President Muhammad bin Zayed - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
De Facto Becomes De Jure as MbZ Is Named UAE President
The succession of one of the most energetic emerging Arab leaders suggests an even more active regional role.
May 16, 2022
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  • Simon Henderson
Israeli Prime Minister Bennett meets with the UAE's foreign minister in December 2021 - Source: Reuters
Video
Brief Analysis
Building an Arab-Israel Bloc: Can It Compensate for a Reluctant Washington?
Arab, European, and Israeli experts assess the possibilities and limits of normalization, discussing concerns about Iran’s nuclear program, U.S. retrenchment, and the Palestinian issue.
May 12, 2022
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  • Nickolay Mladenov
  • Zohar Palti
  • Ebtesam al-Ketbi
  • Karim Haggag
Qatari leader Emir Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Qatari Visit to Iran Suggests Possible Policy Breakthroughs
The emir will likely seek a role in reviving the nuclear agreement, as well as Iranian help with accommodating World Cup fans later this year.
May 11, 2022
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  • Simon Henderson
Hassan Daqou
Brief Analysis
Dethroning Lebanon’s “King of Captagon”
A major international drug smuggler with close ties to Hezbollah has continued threatening Lebanese residents and helping the Assad regime next door, giving Washington ample cause to intervene.
May 9, 2022
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  • Lauren Fredericks
Articles & Testimony
We Can’t Face Down Putin Alone
Some potential allies in the Middle East may not be democracies, but they're not revisionist states either, so the United States cannot afford to write them off.
May 6, 2022
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  • Dennis Ross
Arab Approval of UAE, Bahrain Peace with Israel
Video
Brief Analysis
New Arab Polls on Ukraine, Iran, Israel, and China: Analysis and Implications
Three public opinion experts discuss what March and April surveys in key states reveal about local attitudes toward U.S. policy.
May 3, 2022
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  • David Pollock
  • Catherine Cleveland
  • Munqith Dagher
Ukrainian soldiers pose with a captured Russian military vehicle - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Russia’s Move on Ukraine Polls Poorly in Arab Gulf
Most Saudi, Emirati, and Kuwaiti citizens appear to oppose Putin’s invasion, but their dim views of Washington’s reliability may limit the region’s willingness to counter Moscow.
Apr 30, 2022
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  • David Pollock
A Ghauri nuclear-capable missile on parade in Pakistan
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Renewed Saudi-Pakistan Contacts Revive Nuclear Fears
Deadlock in the Iran nuclear talks may prompt action by Riyadh, with Pakistani support.
Apr 27, 2022
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  • Simon Henderson

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Supported by the

Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy

The Washington Institute's Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy embodies the Institute's long-term research focus on the conservative Arab Gulf states -- Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman -- and the key role these countries play collectively as a primary source of the world's oil and natural gas.

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Featured experts

Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt is the Kahn Fellow and director of The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program.
Simon Henderson
Simon Henderson
Simon Henderson is the Baker fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy at The Washington Institute, specializing in energy matters and the conservative Arab states of the Persian Gulf.
Michael Knights
Michael Knights
Michael Knights is the Jill and Jay Bernstein Fellow of The Washington Institute, specializing in the military and security affairs of Iraq, Iran, and the Persian Gulf states. He is a co-founder of the Militia Spotlight platform, which offers in-depth analysis of developments related to the Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria.
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