How Iran Could Escalate

Jun 23, 2025

Also published in Foreign Affairs
Israeli firefighters work at the site of in Iranian missile strike on a residential building in Tel Aviv in June 2025 - source: Reuters
About the Authors
Dana Stroul
Dana Stroul

Dana Stroul is Director of Research and Shelly and Michael Kassen Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Articles & Testimony

In the wake of retaliatory strikes on U.S. targets, a former Pentagon official assesses Tehran’s bad options and Washington’s best response.

Less than 48 hours after Washington’s strikes against Iran’s nuclear program, Tehran launched a ballistic missile attack on the largest U.S. military installation in the Middle East, Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. The symbolism of the decision to target this base—the same one that President Trump visited only two months ago during his tour of Gulf states, and one located in a country that maintains close ties to and shares an offshore gas field with Iran—is unmistakable. Tehran will respond to strikes on its territory, will punish others it perceives to have enabled U.S. military operations, and remains undeterred from pursuing an approach that holds the entire stability of the Middle East at risk... 

Read the full article on the Foreign Affairs website.

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Topics

Military & Security U.S. Policy

Regions & Countries

Iran