Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

American prisoners released by Iran arrive in Doha, Qatar,in September 2023 - source: Reuters

The Iran Hostage Deal: Clarifying the $6 Billion Transfer

The deal gives Tehran access to frozen funds for humanitarian purposes, likely paving the way for resumed nuclear talks this fall as both sides try to lower tensions.

Sep 18, 2023

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Henry Rome

Thumbnail of infographic detailing Iran's oil exports - source: The Washington Institute

Maps & Graphics

Articles & Testimony

Infographic: A Visual Guide to Iran’s Soaring Oil Exports

New data-rich graphics strikingly illustrate the growth in Tehran’s oil revenue and China’s outsize role in fueling this trend.

Sep 15, 2023

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Henry Rome
Noam Raydan

A photo illustration shows US and Iranian flags and an atomic symbol - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Nuclear Diplomacy: Feint and Advance

What Washington considers de-escalation, Tehran sees as an opportunity to consolidate its nuclear gains, avoid accountability, and position itself to cross the nuclear weapons threshold at a time of its choosing.

Sep 14, 2023

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Michael Singh

Wang Yi, director of China's Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission, Ali Shamkhani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, and Minister of State and national security adviser of Saudi Arabia Musaad bin Mohammed Al Aiban shake hands in Beijing in March 2023 - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

Gulf De-escalation and Hedging in the Shadow of US Retrenchment

Although any decrease in tensions is welcome, Washington should be concerned that regional rapprochement is being driven by diminished confidence in the United States.

Sep 12, 2023

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David Schenker

Fikra Forum

Iran’s Pressure Campaign on Iranian Kurds Continues

Iran has stepped up pressure on Baghdad and Erbil to disarm and relocate Iranian Kurdish opposition parties in the Kurdistan Region amidst ongoing disputes between Erbil and Baghdad over budget and oil revenues.

Sep 13, 2023

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Wladimir van Wilgenburg

Ships of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet on exercise in the Persian Gulf

Brief Analysis

The Uncertain State of Deterrence in the Persian Gulf

Despite conducting military drills and maintaining a defiant tone, Iran has avoided further ship seizures, but its demonstrated willingness to take assertive action in this zone of “contested deterrence” remains intact.

Sep 13, 2023

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Farzin Nadimi

Articles & Testimony

Saudi Arabia and Lebanon: A Love-Hate Relationship

Riyadh won’t lend a helping hand in Lebanon unless Washington takes action on fully implementing the Taif Accord, curbing Captagon smugglers, and reversing Iran and Hezbollah’s takeover of the state.

Sep 12, 2023

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Hanin Ghaddar

Twitter photo showing an Iranian woman standing on top of a car during a protest against the killing of Mahsa Amini.

Video

Brief Analysis

Woman, Life, Freedom: Iran’s Mass Protest Movement, One Year On

A Conversation with Masih Alinejad

A leading activist discusses the protests and the international response on the anniversary of the movement’s outbreak.

Sep 12, 2023

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Masih Alinejad

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Misunderstood Nuclear Law

Tehran may argue that its 2020 nuclear law constrains its room for maneuver in any future talks, but its compliance with that law has long been spotty, and officials seem more focused on ensuring that any concessions they make are reversible.

Sep 7, 2023

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Henry Rome

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, casts his vote for president

Brief Analysis

The 2024 Election Cycle Starts in Iran

Upcoming votes pose a dilemma for the Supreme Leader: should he aggressively disqualify candidates and further alienate the public, or risk a Majlis dominated by his political rivals?

Aug 18, 2023

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Omer Carmi

Fikra Forum

Tracking Iranian Soft Power Influence in the KRI

The Islamic Republic of Iran over several years has gained a significant foothold in Iraq, spreading its influence and agenda throughout Iraqi daily life.

Aug 11, 2023

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Nawras Jaff

Brief Analysis

The Iran Deal’s October Sunsets: Sanctions Without Snapback

Facing the imminent expiration of UN sanctions but unwilling to trigger “snapback,” the EU and Britain should unilaterally extend some of their own restrictions on Tehran.

Jul 28, 2023

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Henry Rome
Louis Dugit-Gros

May 2023 unveiling ceremony for Iran's Khoramshahr ballistic missile

Maps & Graphics

In-Depth Reports

The Next Generation of Iranian Ballistic Missiles:

Technical Advances, Strategic Objectives, and Potential Western Responses

Amid revived nuclear talks with the United States, Iran finally debuted its vaunted Fattah “hypersonic missile”—just after test-launching an improved large-payload MRBM—in a clear bid to demonstrate conventional military deterrence capability.

Jul 25, 2023

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Farzin Nadimi

A production still from the movie Oppenheimer, featuring actor Cillian Murphy - source: Universal

Articles & Testimony

The Science Behind the Drama of ‘Oppenheimer’

Iran’s potential push for a nuclear device and the region’s broader proliferation challenges cast a shadow over the new summer blockbuster.

Jul 24, 2023

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Simon Henderson

Brief Analysis

Risks of Maritime Escalation in the Strait of Hormuz

If the United States does not accompany its military deterrent efforts with strong diplomatic signals, the current cycle of ship seizures and Iranian retaliatory measures could spiral into something resembling the 1980s Tanker War.

Jul 21, 2023

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Farzin Nadimi

Brief Analysis

Iraq’s Power Problem (Part 2): Implications of the New Oil-for-Gas Deal with Iran

Baghdad hopes to avoid power cuts, political turmoil, and U.S. sanctions by striking a barter agreement with Tehran, but the deal raises many questions.

Jul 19, 2023

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Bilal Wahab
Dennis Ross

Thumbnail image representing an infographic illustrating the uranium enrichment process

Maps & Graphics

Articles & Testimony

Infographic: A Visual Guide to Understanding the Uranium Enrichment Process

This infographic is based on the Washington Institute’s 2015 nuclear glossary, a detailed guide that provides summaries of technical terms relating to Iran’s nuclear progress.

Jul 18, 2023

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Shaina Katz

Photo of an oil facility in Iraqi Kurdistan.

Brief Analysis

Iraq’s Power Problem (Part 1): Persistent Financial and Technical Challenges

Diversifying Iraq’s energy supplies won’t mean much if its power infrastructure is not rehabilitated, and the skewed cost-revenue ratio at the Ministry of Electricity is unsustainable.

Jul 17, 2023

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Noam Raydan

Khamenei present day, underneath: as a youth, with clerics, with military

Maps & Graphics

In-Depth Reports

The Regent of Allah:

Ali Khamenei's Political Evolution in Iran

The authoritarian infrastructure honed over decades by the Supreme Leader is designed to outlast his time in office.

Jul 14, 2023

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Mehdi Khalaji

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Infighting Between Northern Hashd Units Requires IRGC-QF Mediation

Iran's senior Revolutionary Guard operator in Kirkuk and religious-political leader Ammar al-Hakim were recently brought in to mediate between feuding state-paid militias.

Jul 6, 2023

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Michael Knights
Amir al-Kaabi
Hamdi Malik

◆ Militia Spotlight

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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