Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Variables the United States Should Consider on Dollar Smuggling in Iraq

U.S. pressure on Iraq to prevent dollar smuggling and dinar laundering can protect Iraq’s sovereignty and weaken Iran. But if executed without deliberation, this pressure could allow Russia and China to enhance their positions in the Middle East.

Feb 15, 2023

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Frzand Sherko

An Iranian state-media photo of the Aghab-44 underground air base - source: Iran state media

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Iran Unveils New Underground Air Base

The facility is seemingly intended for launching surprise maritime interdiction missions in the Persian Gulf region, mainly aimed at U.S. Fifth Fleet assets—though it probably won’t be able to accommodate Iran’s potential future fleet of Russian jets.

Feb 13, 2023

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Farzin Nadimi

President Biden delivers the 2022 State of the Union address in Washington - source: U.S. government

Brief Analysis

The State of the Union and the Middle East

A compendium of what the past three U.S. presidents have said—and not said—about the region in their annual speeches before Congress.

Feb 8, 2023

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Eric Feely

Fikra Forum

The Fractured Opposition to the Islamic Regime

The Iranian opposition has aligned itself well with the recent protest movement, but evidence of its ability to play an organizational or leadership role in future protests remains limited.

Feb 7, 2023

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Ata Hoodashtian

US and Israeli military planes participate in the 2023 Juniper Oak joint exercise over Ashdod, Israel - source: IDF

Brief Analysis

The Juniper Oak Military Exercise: Implications for Innovation, Experimentation, and U.S. Policy Toward Iran

Last week’s large, combined exercise was intended to assure friends and deter adversaries, but both goals will ultimately depend on fixing a flawed policy toward Iran.

Feb 1, 2023

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Michael Eisenstadt

Articles & Testimony

The EU Can, and Should, Designate the IRGC as a Terrorist Group

Legitimate policy debates aside, and contrary to recent statements by the EU’s foreign policy chief, Europe has more than enough legal authority and evidence to designate the organization.

Jan 30, 2023

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Matthew Levitt

Iraqi prime minister Mohammed Shia' Al Sudani in 2022 - source: Wikimedia Commons

Brief Analysis

Sudani’s Wobbly Balancing Act Between Tehran and Washington

Although it is still too early to write the prime minister off as an Iranian lackey, he is on a familiar trajectory for Iraqi governments: doing the minimum necessary to prevent deterioration with Washington while satisfying the voracious demands of his Iran-backed partners.

Jan 27, 2023

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David Schenker

Brief Analysis

After Ukraine: Russia’s Potential Military and Nuclear Compensation to Iran

Despite the obstacles to expanded cooperation, Russian aid could help Tehran promote repression at home and instability abroad, so the United States and its allies should seek to deter such collaboration wherever possible.

Jan 20, 2023

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Louis Dugit-Gros
Anna Borshchevskaya
Michael Eisenstadt
Farzin Nadimi
Henry Rome

Fikra Forum

What Do Iran’s Protests Mean for Iraq and the Kurdistan Region?

Internal instability in Iran may cause significant religious, economic, and political repercussions across the border in Iraq.

Jan 17, 2023

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Zubir R. Ahmed
Nawzad Shukri

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Militia Spokesmen Reflect on Sudani Inviting U.S. Forces to Remain

Asaib Ahl al-Haq is signaling pragmatism, while Kataib Hezbollah is contorting its arguments to allow it to play along, albeit without explicitly accepting a U.S. military presence.

Jan 17, 2023

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Ameer al-Kaabi
Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik

◆ Militia Spotlight

Fikra Forum

Iranian Daughters: Struggling for the Rights Their Mothers Lost in the Revolution

Activists fighting for women's rights in Iran today have learned from their predecessors' mistakes and are more determined than ever to achieve gender equality.

Jan 13, 2023

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Sepideh Zamani

Brief Analysis

Iran’s New Budget Perpetuates Economic Challenges

The president is proposing de facto cuts to salaries and subsidies as well as more money for the military, while avoiding the tough reforms Iran’s economy needs.

Jan 12, 2023

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Henry Rome

Israeli prime minister Natanyahu and U.S. president Biden in Jerusalem in 2021 - Source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Netanyahu’s Potential Friction Points with Biden (Part 2): Iran, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, and Domestic Issues

The prime minister will need a great deal of U.S. military and diplomatic assistance to achieve his foreign policy imperatives—a fact he should not forget when mulling potentially divisive moves at home.

Jan 10, 2023

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David Makovsky

Russian President Putin and Iranian President Raisi meet in Tehran in 2022 - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Making Iran’s Support for Russia More Costly

To foster doubts about the wisdom of deepening the relationship, Washington should stoke longstanding Iranian skepticism toward Russia and work with Europe to sanction additional entities involved in the drone program.

Jan 5, 2023

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Henry Rome

Fikra Forum

Iranian Counterculture and Gen Z

Decades of underground counterculture have led to an informed and interconnected youth in Iran, now eager for freedom and change.

Jan 4, 2023

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Arash Aalaei

Brief Analysis

Deepening Russia-Iran Relationship Should Worry Israel

The Kremlin will have many ways to thank Iran for supporting its war against Ukraine.

Dec 28, 2022

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Nadav Pollak

Crown Prince Muhammad and President Xi walking in Riyadh.

Brief Analysis

Assessing Xi Jinping’s Middle East Trip

His discussions on nuclear proliferation, energy markets, defense cooperation, and other issues offered numerous contrasts with President Biden’s summer meetings in Saudi Arabia—as well as some unexpected criticism of Iran.

Dec 22, 2022

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Grant Rumley
Carol Silber
Eric Feely
Sarah Cahn
Sude Akgundogdu
Lauren von Thaden
Faris Almaari

Private Sean Rooney, an Irish soldier killed while serving with UNIFIL in Lebanon - source: Government of the Republic of Ireland

Brief Analysis

Expect More Violence If Hezbollah Isn’t Held Accountable for Murdering an Irish Soldier

Whether the group is pulling the trigger itself or inciting others to do so, its brazen disregard for Lebanese civil authority, international law, and Israeli redlines has reached a new low.

Dec 20, 2022

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Hanin Ghaddar

Video

Brief Analysis

Iran's Nuclear Proliferation Strategy: U.S. Policy Options

Three experts discuss how Washington might feasibly attempt to steer Tehran away from actively pursuing nuclear weapons.

Dec 16, 2022

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Michael Eisenstadt
Mahsa Rouhi
Suzanne Maloney

Fikra Forum

Perpetrators of Stephen Troell’s Killing in Baghdad Remain Unknown

The circumstances surrounding Troell's death in November clearly indicate that the murder is tied to political infighting and the ongoing issue of armed militias in Iraq.

Dec 15, 2022

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Mohanad Faris

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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Featured experts

Patrick Clawson

Patrick Clawson is Morningstar senior fellow and director of research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Mehdi Khalaji

Mehdi Khalaji, a Qom-trained Shiite theologian, is the Libitzky Family Fellow at The Washington Institute.

Henry Rome

Henry Rome is a Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, specializing in Iran sanctions, economic, and nuclear issues.

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Policy Analysis on Iran

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