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Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

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Venezuelan and Iranian flags flying during a state visit in Tehran - source: Reuters
Multimedia
Brief Analysis
Iran May Be Outsourcing Kamikaze Drone Production to Venezuela
Tehran, Caracas, and Moscow have been running a secretive air bridge just as Iran appears to be surging its transfer of attack drones to Russia, raising questions about whether these activities are linked.
Nov 17, 2022
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
New EU Sanctions Indicate More Willingness to Hold Tehran Accountable
Although their ultimate effects are uncertain, the new sanctions are a powerful signal that European governments are readier than ever to confront the regime’s human rights violations, drone deliveries to Russia, and nuclear stalling.
Nov 15, 2022
◆
  • Henry Rome
  • Louis Dugit-Gros
Brief Analysis
Iran Faces Renewed Censure at Vienna Nuclear Meeting
A resolution condemning Tehran’s unwillingness to provide access to potential weaponization sites is an effective way to apply pressure, but also risks retaliation.
Nov 15, 2022
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Photo showing the Iron Dome defense system intercepting Hamas rockets over Ashkelon, Israel, in May 2021.
Articles & Testimony
Why Israel Is Hesitant About Supplying Ukraine with Air Defense Systems
Jerusalem remains concerned that angering the Russians could jeopardize its crucial national security interests in Syria, though domestic elements and U.S. officials are still pressing it to do more.
Nov 15, 2022
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
An Iranian-made Shahed-136 drone in use by Russian forces in an attack on Kyiv, Ukraine - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
What Iran’s Drones in Ukraine Mean for the Future of War
Russia’s effective use of inexpensive Iranian aircraft points to challenges that other states may soon face elsewhere.
Nov 10, 2022
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Alex Almeida
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Oil Exports Are Vulnerable to Sanctions
Iran continues to export significant volumes of oil, providing a key source of revenue for the regime—and a potential target for increased economic pressure.
Nov 9, 2022
◆
  • Henry Rome
Iranian presidential candidate Ebrahim Raisi speaking in 2021
Brief Analysis
The Islamic State Attacks the Islamic Republic
The jihadist group has been actively plotting against Iran for years, though the recent upsurge in threats from its Afghan branch may presage a new wave of cells and attacks inside the embattled Islamic Republic.
Oct 31, 2022
◆
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
Snapback Sanctions on Iran: More Bark Than Bite?
Threatening to reimpose old UN sanctions would likely have little practical effect on Tehran’s ability to trade oil and export drones, while the plethora of other potential complications suggest that it should be treated as a tool of last resort.
Oct 25, 2022
◆
  • Henry Rome
  • Louis Dugit-Gros
Houthi leader Abdul-Malik Badruddin al-Houthi addresses a rally in Sanaa, Yemen - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
The Houthi Jihad Council: Command and Control in ‘the Other Hezbollah’
The Houthi relationship with the IRGC and Lebanese Hezbollah has grown to the point that regardless of whether fighting in Yemen wanes, the Gulf movement may still play an integrated role in Iran’s future military adventures.
October 2022
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Adnan al-Gabarni
  • Casey Coombs
Brief Analysis
Scoring Iraq’s New Government: Metrics for Preserving U.S. Interests
The protracted post-election process has been a step backward for Iraqi democracy, so Washington will need to closely monitor the new leadership’s actions and hold Baghdad to measurable benchmarks.
Oct 19, 2022
◆
  • Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
The UN Resolution Against Russia’s Ukraine Annexations: How Did the Middle East Vote?
Most of the region supported the measure, with one nay vote, a pair of notable changes since the March resolution, and several strong statements in support of territorial integrity.
Oct 18, 2022
A Turkish outpost in Iraqi Kurdistan
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Militias Pivot Away from U.S. Targets, Toward Kurdistan and Turkish Bases
Attack metrics prove that Iran-backed groups currently see more profit in striking "near enemies" than American forces.
Oct 17, 2022
◆
  • Eric Feely
◆ Militia Spotlight
Kurdish People
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
As Anti-Regime Protests Swell Across Iran, Ethnic Minorities Demand Freedom and Equality
In order to create more lasting changes, the current wave of protests in Iran must be inclusive of the demands and expectations of ethnic minorities.
Oct 14, 2022
◆
  • Rahim Hamid
  • Ruth Riegler
Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, gestures while speaking
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The Demonstrations for Mahsa Amini: A Turning Point in Iran
Despite the Iranian regime’s efforts to suppress recent protests, they have quickly spread to every corner of the country, making this one of the most important events in Iran in more than four decades and suggesting this could be a turning point for the country's future.
Oct 7, 2022
◆
  • Ziryan Rojhelati
Iranian men use Instagram - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Social Media in Iran’s Protests: A New Public Sphere?
Apps like Clubhouse and Instagram have greatly broadened the people’s ability to exchange ideas and even criticize the regime, but authorities have simultaneously subverted, coopted, and silenced these platforms at will.
Oct 6, 2022
◆
  • Mehdi Khalaji
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Iran’s Dilemma in Managing Shiite Conflicts in Iraq
Iran has recently adopted a more hands-off approach in Iraqi politics, hoping that the internal fractures will eventually work in their favor.
Oct 6, 2022
◆
  • Firas Elias
Baquer Namazi, a dual U.S.-Iranian citizen who had been imprisoned in Iran, shakes hands with an Omani official in Muscat - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
The Latest Chapter in Iran’s Hostage Diplomacy
U.S. policymakers should be careful about concluding that Tehran’s decision to relax restrictions on two detained American citizens has anything to do with the nuclear talks.
Oct 6, 2022
◆
  • Henry Rome
Zainab Isam
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Militia Disinformation and the Zainab Isam al-Khazali Shooting
"Resistance" groups launched a coordinated and intentionally misleading anti-American media campaign to ease domestic pressure caused by the unrest in Iran.
Oct 5, 2022
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
◆ Militia Spotlight
Smoke is seen at a Saudi oil facility in Abqaiq, 2019 - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Will a Sense of Revenge Spur Iran to Attack Saudi Arabia?
While the regime doubles down on its domestic crackdown, it has increased its threatening rhetoric abroad as well, potentially drawing U.S. assets into a new round of military escalation reminiscent of summer 2019.
Oct 4, 2022
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
AWH graphic
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iraqi Militia Group Makes Credible New Threat Against the Gulf States
The facade group in question tends to follow through on its warnings, so its latest rhetoric about using developments in Yemen as cause for new attacks should be taken seriously.
Oct 3, 2022
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight

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Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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Featured experts

Patrick Clawson
Patrick Clawson
Patrick Clawson is Morningstar senior fellow and director of research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Mehdi Khalaji
Mehdi Khalaji
Mehdi Khalaji, a Qom-trained Shiite theologian, is the Libitzky Family Fellow at The Washington Institute.
Henry Rome
Henry Rome
Henry Rome is a Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, specializing in Iran sanctions, economic, and nuclear issues.
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