Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Don’t Assume Iran’s Supply Lines to Hezbollah Are Cut

Tehran’s past efforts to reconstitute the group have passed through more difficult environments than post-Assad Syria, but an economical U.S.-led effort can complicate future smuggling efforts and further other counterterrorism goals in the process.

Dec 12, 2024

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Michael Knights

Brief Analysis

Syria Is the First Major Aftershock of October 7—With More to Come?

From stability in Jordan to the future of Kurdish autonomy, Lebanese sovereignty, and Iranian nuclear proliferation, officials must prepare quickly to prevent or manage—and in some cases even encourage—further shocks in the Middle East.

Dec 11, 2024

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Zohar Palti

Iranian presidential candidate Masoud Pezeshkian poses in front of a poster of Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei prior to Iran's 2024 presidential elections - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

Iran’s New Presidency

Policymakers would be wise to view Pezeshkian’s rise not as a development that will change Iran, but as a reflection of a regime that is struggling to stave off domestic troubles.

Dec 10, 2024

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Michael Singh

Fikra Forum

The Ideological Constraints of the Islamic Republic

As long as the Islamic Republic’s decisions are dictated by rigid ideological imperatives, any shift in Tehran toward pragmatism in response to the new Trump Administration will likely be superficial at best.

Dec 6, 2024

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Masoud Zamani

Brief Analysis

Mismanagement Makes Iran Vulnerable to a Different Type of U.S. Pressure

The country faces shortages of gasoline, natural gas, and electricity that make it newly susceptible to pressure against its oil product imports, not just its oil exports.

Dec 4, 2024

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Patrick Clawson

Book cover with Iranian missiles, including Shahab-3

Maps & Graphics

In-Depth Reports

If Iran Gets the Bomb:

Weapons, Force Posture, Strategy

The decision would require tradeoffs affecting the security, survivability, and military credibility of Tehran's nascent arsenal.

Nov 25, 2024

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Michael Eisenstadt

Brief Analysis

How the B-2 Can Help Reinforce U.S. Messaging to Iran

Amid serious escalation in the Middle East, the United States should more clearly frame its recent deployment of B-2 and B-52 bombers to the region as a warning to Iran—and reinforce this with more posturing, messaging, and accelerated deployment of deep penetrators.

Nov 21, 2024

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Farzin Nadimi
James E. Shepard

Nuclear warhead schematics from the Manhattan Project, 1945

Brief Analysis

With Its Conventional Deterrence Diminished, Will Iran Go for the Bomb?

Although recent military setbacks have fueled Iranian talk about a possible nuclear breakout, uncertainty about the risks, costs, and utility of weaponization may give the United States leverage to ensure that Tehran continues to hedge.

Nov 15, 2024

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Michael Eisenstadt

Brief Analysis

Before Maximum Pressure, Trump Needs an Iran Strategy

The administration should first consider how enhanced sanctions would fit into its broader regional policy before talking about how to get them going again.

Nov 14, 2024

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Richard Nephew

Brief Analysis

How to Judge Iranian Response Options Against Israel

Poor internal communications and miscalculation could lead Tehran to continue the cycle by striking again soon, whether directly or through its Iraqi proxies.

Nov 1, 2024

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Patrick Clawson
Michael Knights

Israeli Iron Dome missiles intercept rockets fired into Israel from Gaza by Hamas in October 2023 - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Israel’s Missile Defense Performance: Views from the Gulf

In discussing missile defense cooperation with risk-averse Gulf partners, Washington needs to realistically address the specifics of Iran’s latest attack on Israel, including the degree to which defenses were penetrated.

Oct 11, 2024

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Michael Knights
Elizabeth Dent

Brief Analysis

Why Israel Should Focus on Iranian Military and Security Targets, Not Oil Infrastructure

Despite significant vulnerabilities, the redundancies in Iran’s energy production would limit the effects of any strike, while the consequences for Israeli, Gulf, and global energy markets could be significant.

Oct 11, 2024

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Farzin Nadimi
Simon Henderson

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Qais in Tehran, Prominently Seated Behind Khamenei

At a recent event in Iran, the leader of the key Iraqi militia Asaib Ahl al-Haq was strategically positioned in a place of honor directly behind the Supreme Leader.

Oct 7, 2024

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Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

A photo illustration of a hypodermic needle and a poison symbol - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

Tehran’s Tactical Knockout: Weaponized Pharmaceutical-Based Agents

Concerns over the regime’s longstanding R&D on weaponized anesthetics and other PBAs have become more pressing given the high risk of transfer to various hostile proxies.

October 2024

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Matthew Levitt

Houthi fighters parade with their missile systems in Sanaa in September 2023 - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

A Draw Is a Win: The Houthis After One Year of War

The Yemeni group has strengthened its capabilities and aggressiveness to the point where it may be less vulnerable to international pressure than its Iranian patron.

October 2024

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Michael Knights

Flowers and a portrait of Hassan Nasrallah at a memorial to the slain Hezbollah leader in Beirut - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

How the Death of Hezbollah’s Nasrallah Brings a Renewed Opportunity for Mideast Peace

Netanyahu must translate Israel’s military achievements in Lebanon into political outcomes while also preventing far-right nationalists in his coalition from defining what is possible with the Palestinians.

Sep 29, 2024

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Jeffrey Sonnenfeld
Dennis Ross
Steven Tian

Brief Analysis

What Nasrallah’s Death Could Mean for the Hezbollah Network

Iran’s proxy faces steep challenges on the leadership and military fronts, and the international community can now act vigorously to free Lebanon from its grip.

Sep 28, 2024

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Hanin Ghaddar

Brief Analysis

Boosting Military Support to Ukraine Can Help Deter Iran

From facilitating a no-fly zone over Ukraine to interdicting Iranian missile transfers, Washington and its allies have various means of answering the latest strategic shift in the war.

Sep 25, 2024

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Anna Borshchevskaya

Fikra Forum

Iran's Debate about Weekends Highlights Tehran's Ideological Constraints

The debate over making Saturday the official second day of the weekend nationwide instead of Thursday has become a hot topic in Iran in recent months, highlighting the clash between the the regime’s ideology and the country’s economic reality.

Sep 17, 2024

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Saeid Golkar

Brief Analysis

Middle East Developments Overshadow the IAEA Conference

Iranian missiles for Russia, Houthi attacks on Israel, and North Korea’s surprise display of centrifuges have quickly changed the atmosphere of the nuclear agency’s annual meeting.

Sep 17, 2024

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Simon Henderson

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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Featured experts

Farzin Nadimi

Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Fellow with The Washington Institute, is a Washington-based analyst specializing in the security and defense affairs of Iran and the Persian Gulf region.

Patrick Clawson

Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and Research Counselor at The Washington Institute.

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Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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