Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

The Treacherous Triangle of Syria, Iran, and Russia

If the Assad regime's two main allies emerge victorious in Syria and Ukraine, U.S. adversaries will likely conclude that the pros of challenging Washington ultimately outweigh the negatives.

Spring 2023

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Anna Borshchevskaya

The Taliban flag on display in Kabul, Afghanistan

Brief Analysis

Iran Formalizes Ties with the Taliban

The two governments have been engaging for months on standard diplomatic issues, but the new embassy handover may prove more worrisome given that they are both rogue regimes capable of coordinating against U.S. interests in the region.

Mar 3, 2023

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Aaron Y. Zelin

Fikra Forum

Opposition in the Iranian Diaspora and among Iranian Reformers: The Case of Mousavi

As an Iranian opposition coalesces in the diaspora, challenges loom on the horizon. How the diaspora approaches reformists inside Iran calling for a new constitution will help demonstrate just how cohesive Iran’s disparate opposition groups can become.

Mar 3, 2023

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Majid Nikouei

Articles & Testimony

Is Iran Ready to Build a Nuclear Bomb or Not?

The Biden administration’s mixed messages about the significance of new enrichment revelations will make it more difficult to decide next steps.

Mar 1, 2023

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Simon Henderson

Brief Analysis

Yemen Peace Accord Appears Increasingly Possible

A deal would leave the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in control but allow the Saudis to disengage from a costly and intractable war, potentially opening up further diplomatic possibilities.

Feb 28, 2023

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Simon Henderson

In-Depth Reports

Iran’s Nuclear Endgame Warrants a Change in U.S. Strategy

The regime's latest step on uranium enrichment should compel the United States and its partners to snap back sanctions, bolster military deterrence, and plan for potential crisis scenarios.

Feb 28, 2023

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Michael Singh

Arash-2 drones (Iran), Patriot launcher (U.S.)

In-Depth Reports

Striking Back:

Iran and the Rise of Asymmetric Drone Warfare in the Middle East

The regime’s drone and missile forces pose a stark threat to the Gulf states and Israel, necessitating a firmer, more cohesive U.S.-led response.

Feb 26, 2023

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Kenneth McKenzie Jr.

Articles & Testimony

Iran Enriched Uranium to 84 Percent—But Can It Make a Nuclear Bomb?

The new reported level is well beyond most people’s “red line” and will likely draw much attention at the IAEA's March meeting.

Feb 20, 2023

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Simon Henderson

Iranian president Raisi is greeted upon his arrival for a state visit to China in February 2023 - source: Government of Iran

Brief Analysis

Raisi Visits China: More Symbolism Than Substance

The Iranian president’s high-profile Beijing trip reaffirmed the relationship’s limits—and will probably reinforce Tehran’s uninterest in nuclear compromise.

Feb 16, 2023

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Henry Rome

Fikra Forum

Iran’s Mounting Missile Threats to Neighboring Countries

Iran's ballistic missile program poses regional threats that require international solutions.

Feb 16, 2023

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Mohammad Abu Ghazleh

Fikra Forum

Variables the United States Should Consider on Dollar Smuggling in Iraq

U.S. pressure on Iraq to prevent dollar smuggling and dinar laundering can protect Iraq’s sovereignty and weaken Iran. But if executed without deliberation, this pressure could allow Russia and China to enhance their positions in the Middle East.

Feb 15, 2023

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Frzand Sherko

An Iranian state-media photo of the Aghab-44 underground air base - source: Iran state media

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Iran Unveils New Underground Air Base

The facility is seemingly intended for launching surprise maritime interdiction missions in the Persian Gulf region, mainly aimed at U.S. Fifth Fleet assets—though it probably won’t be able to accommodate Iran’s potential future fleet of Russian jets.

Feb 13, 2023

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Farzin Nadimi

President Biden delivers the 2022 State of the Union address in Washington - source: U.S. government

Brief Analysis

The State of the Union and the Middle East

A compendium of what the past three U.S. presidents have said—and not said—about the region in their annual speeches before Congress.

Feb 8, 2023

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Eric Feely

Fikra Forum

The Fractured Opposition to the Islamic Regime

The Iranian opposition has aligned itself well with the recent protest movement, but evidence of its ability to play an organizational or leadership role in future protests remains limited.

Feb 7, 2023

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Ata Hoodashtian

US and Israeli military planes participate in the 2023 Juniper Oak joint exercise over Ashdod, Israel - source: IDF

Brief Analysis

The Juniper Oak Military Exercise: Implications for Innovation, Experimentation, and U.S. Policy Toward Iran

Last week’s large, combined exercise was intended to assure friends and deter adversaries, but both goals will ultimately depend on fixing a flawed policy toward Iran.

Feb 1, 2023

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Michael Eisenstadt

Articles & Testimony

The EU Can, and Should, Designate the IRGC as a Terrorist Group

Legitimate policy debates aside, and contrary to recent statements by the EU’s foreign policy chief, Europe has more than enough legal authority and evidence to designate the organization.

Jan 30, 2023

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Matthew Levitt

Iraqi prime minister Mohammed Shia' Al Sudani in 2022 - source: Wikimedia Commons

Brief Analysis

Sudani’s Wobbly Balancing Act Between Tehran and Washington

Although it is still too early to write the prime minister off as an Iranian lackey, he is on a familiar trajectory for Iraqi governments: doing the minimum necessary to prevent deterioration with Washington while satisfying the voracious demands of his Iran-backed partners.

Jan 27, 2023

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David Schenker

Brief Analysis

After Ukraine: Russia’s Potential Military and Nuclear Compensation to Iran

Despite the obstacles to expanded cooperation, Russian aid could help Tehran promote repression at home and instability abroad, so the United States and its allies should seek to deter such collaboration wherever possible.

Jan 20, 2023

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Louis Dugit-Gros
Anna Borshchevskaya
Michael Eisenstadt
Farzin Nadimi
Henry Rome

Fikra Forum

What Do Iran’s Protests Mean for Iraq and the Kurdistan Region?

Internal instability in Iran may cause significant religious, economic, and political repercussions across the border in Iraq.

Jan 17, 2023

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Zubir R. Ahmed
Nawzad Shukri

Fikra Forum

Iranian Daughters: Struggling for the Rights Their Mothers Lost in the Revolution

Activists fighting for women's rights in Iran today have learned from their predecessors' mistakes and are more determined than ever to achieve gender equality.

Jan 13, 2023

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Sepideh Zamani

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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