Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Lieutenant General Asim Munir, newly appointed as the new Chief Of Army Staff of Pakistan, meets with President Arif Alvi in Islamabad - source: Reuters

Pakistan’s New Military Leader and the Gulf

For U.S. and Gulf officials alike, the appointment of a potential military dictator in the world’s only nuclear-armed Islamic state bears close watching.

Nov 28, 2022

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Simon Henderson

Articles & Testimony

Saving Iraqi Sovereignty: Iran, Turkey and a Fractured Homeland

There are ways for the new prime minister to reinforce Iraq’s independence after a series of foreign attacks, but they will be complex and painful.

Nov 27, 2022

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Bilal Wahab

Palestians on a Mediterranean beach in Gaza

Brief Analysis

Changing Population Patterns Will Reshape the Middle East

Several of the region’s demographic heavyweights will be surpassed, and major shifts at the global level may affect how great powers vie for influence there as well.

Nov 22, 2022

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Patrick Clawson

Fikra Forum

Sunnis in Iran: Protesting Against Decades of Discrimination and Repression

After years of underrepresentation and repression at the hands of the regime, Iran's Sunni population is playing an important role in the current protests.

Nov 21, 2022

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Mehrzad Boroujerdi

Fikra Forum

Iranian Protests and Attacks on KRI: An Attempt to Deflect from Domestic Turmoil

Iran's repeated attacks on the Kurdistan Region of Iraq represent the regime's efforts to both distract from internal opposition and disrupt external opposition support.

Nov 21, 2022

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Nawras Jaff

Iranian women's rights activist Masih Alinejad speaks at the Institute's 2022 Scholar-Statesman Award dinner in New York City - source: The Washington Institute

Video

Brief Analysis

A Conversation with Masih Alinejad

Watch or read a conversation with Masih Alinejad, an Iranian American human rights activist and The Washington Institute’s 2022 Scholar-Statesman honoree.

Nov 21, 2022

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Masih Alinejad

New Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani attends the first regular session of the Council of Ministers in Baghdad in November 2022 - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Who Is Mohammed Shia al-Sudani?

A closer look at the new prime minister’s political career, past affiliations, and key cabinet picks as he attempts to balance relations with pro-Iran groups and wary U.S. officials.

Nov 18, 2022

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May Kadow
Erik Yavorsky

A statue of the men's FIFA World Cup trophy on display in downtown Tehran, Iran - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

A Politically Challenging World Cup for Iran

Instead of attracting tourists, boosting the economy, and rallying Iranians around the flag, this year’s tournament could turn into a Pyrrhic victory for the regime given its dire political situation at home.

Nov 18, 2022

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Omer Carmi

Venezuelan and Iranian flags flying during a state visit in Tehran - source: Reuters

Multimedia

Brief Analysis

Iran May Be Outsourcing Kamikaze Drone Production to Venezuela

Tehran, Caracas, and Moscow have been running a secretive air bridge just as Iran appears to be surging its transfer of attack drones to Russia, raising questions about whether these activities are linked.

Nov 17, 2022

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Farzin Nadimi

Brief Analysis

New EU Sanctions Indicate More Willingness to Hold Tehran Accountable

Although their ultimate effects are uncertain, the new sanctions are a powerful signal that European governments are readier than ever to confront the regime’s human rights violations, drone deliveries to Russia, and nuclear stalling.

Nov 15, 2022

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Henry Rome
Louis Dugit-Gros

Brief Analysis

Iran Faces Renewed Censure at Vienna Nuclear Meeting

A resolution condemning Tehran’s unwillingness to provide access to potential weaponization sites is an effective way to apply pressure, but also risks retaliation.

Nov 15, 2022

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Simon Henderson

Photo showing the Iron Dome defense system intercepting Hamas rockets over Ashkelon, Israel, in May 2021.

Articles & Testimony

Why Israel Is Hesitant About Supplying Ukraine with Air Defense Systems

Jerusalem remains concerned that angering the Russians could jeopardize its crucial national security interests in Syria, though domestic elements and U.S. officials are still pressing it to do more.

Nov 15, 2022

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Anna Borshchevskaya

An Iranian-made Shahed-136 drone in use by Russian forces in an attack on Kyiv, Ukraine - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

What Iran’s Drones in Ukraine Mean for the Future of War

Russia’s effective use of inexpensive Iranian aircraft points to challenges that other states may soon face elsewhere.

Nov 10, 2022

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Michael Knights
Alex Almeida

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Oil Exports Are Vulnerable to Sanctions

Iran continues to export significant volumes of oil, providing a key source of revenue for the regime—and a potential target for increased economic pressure.

Nov 9, 2022

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Henry Rome

Iranian presidential candidate Ebrahim Raisi speaking in 2021

Brief Analysis

The Islamic State Attacks the Islamic Republic

The jihadist group has been actively plotting against Iran for years, though the recent upsurge in threats from its Afghan branch may presage a new wave of cells and attacks inside the embattled Islamic Republic.

Oct 31, 2022

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Aaron Y. Zelin

Brief Analysis

Snapback Sanctions on Iran: More Bark Than Bite?

Threatening to reimpose old UN sanctions would likely have little practical effect on Tehran’s ability to trade oil and export drones, while the plethora of other potential complications suggest that it should be treated as a tool of last resort.

Oct 25, 2022

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Henry Rome
Louis Dugit-Gros

Houthi leader Abdul-Malik Badruddin al-Houthi addresses a rally in Sanaa, Yemen - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

The Houthi Jihad Council: Command and Control in ‘the Other Hezbollah’

The Houthi relationship with the IRGC and Lebanese Hezbollah has grown to the point that regardless of whether fighting in Yemen wanes, the Gulf movement may still play an integrated role in Iran’s future military adventures.

October 2022

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Michael Knights
Adnan al-Gabarni
Casey Coombs

Brief Analysis

Scoring Iraq’s New Government: Metrics for Preserving U.S. Interests

The protracted post-election process has been a step backward for Iraqi democracy, so Washington will need to closely monitor the new leadership’s actions and hold Baghdad to measurable benchmarks.

Oct 19, 2022

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Michael Knights

Brief Analysis

The UN Resolution Against Russia’s Ukraine Annexations: How Did the Middle East Vote?

Most of the region supported the measure, with one nay vote, a pair of notable changes since the March resolution, and several strong statements in support of territorial integrity.

Oct 18, 2022

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Militias Pivot Away from U.S. Targets, Toward Kurdistan and Turkish Bases

Attack metrics prove that Iran-backed groups currently see more profit in striking "near enemies" than American forces.

Oct 17, 2022

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Eric Feely

◆ Militia Spotlight

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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