Grant Rumley is the Meisel-Goldberger Senior Fellow and Director of the Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle East at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Craig Singleton is a senior China fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
The military clash over Iran's nuclear program confirmed what Chinese strategists have long preached: in great-power contests, hard power decides outcomes.
Israel’s air campaign against Iran did more than degrade its nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities—it forced every regional actor to show its proverbial hand. Israel went all-in with an overwhelming airpower campaign, Gulf capitals folded into wary neutrality, and Washington showed that it still owns the table. Beijing, by contrast, merely dealt out press releases, its Middle East playbook reduced to rhetorical flourishes without ante. With the dust now settled, the lesson most relevant to Beijing lies far from the Gulf. The short clash confirmed what Chinese strategists have long preached: In great-power contests, hard power decides outcomes...
