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All Policy Analysis by Soner Cagaptay
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In-Depth Reports
Defining a Realistic Policy Toward Erdogan's Turkey:
Advice for the Biden Administration
U.S. concerns center on Turkey’s democratic backslide and deepening ties between Erdogan and Putin—but the Turkish president also wants to develop a rapport with Joe Biden and fortify his country’s weakened economy.
Mar 24, 2021
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Soner Cagaptay
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Transition 2021
Articles & Testimony
Erdogan Will Play Biden, But Stick to Putin
The new U.S. administration will have a brief, early window to exert leverage, but Erdogan’s asymmetric relationship with Moscow may keep him from substantially altering Turkish policy on the S-400 dispute and regional issues.
Dec 9, 2020
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Soner Cagaptay
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Turkey's Opposition vs. the AKP: Measuring Messaging
Challengers to Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan are proliferating, with two breakaway parties drawing particular notice. In December 2019, Ahmet Davutoglu, who served under Erdogan as foreign minister and then prime minister, formed Gelecek (Future) in an attempt to resurrect a gentler version of the Justice and Development Party (AKP)
Dec 4, 2020
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Soner Cagaptay
Reilly Barry
Articles & Testimony
How Europe Keeps Losing Turkey
The EU has repeatedly gotten its policy toward Ankara wrong, inadvertently helping Erdogan at key points during the rise of his illiberal movement while creating preventable tensions over various regional and domestic issues.
Oct 28, 2020
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Soner Cagaptay
Raffaella Del Sarto
Articles & Testimony
Turkish Foreign Policy Trends: An In-Depth Conversation
The director of The Washington Institute's Turkish Research Program speaks with French students about what Erdogan's recent policy thrust means for Europe and the United States.
Oct 22, 2020
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Franco-Turkish Competition Ascendant
Given their sharply diverging views on conflict zones, secularism, and regional spheres of influence, the two states are swiftly becoming NATO’s next diplomatic hotspot.
Sep 23, 2020
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Aug 3, 2020
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Jul 24, 2020
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Erdogan to Make Hagia Sophia a Mosque Again, But Will It Help Him?
Turkey’s president seems focused on cementing his legacy and boosting his popularity with voters, but the move is more likely to damage the country’s international brand.
Jul 10, 2020
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Jun 24, 2020
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Turkey’s COVID-19 Response
President Erdogan’s ever-tightening circle of policy influencers has lagged behind on proposing innovative solutions to the pandemic, giving other politicians an opening to become the main drivers of national change.
Jun 4, 2020
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Soner Cagaptay
Deniz Yuksel
Articles & Testimony
Resilience in Turkey
Despite Erdogan’s pandemic missteps and repressively conservative agenda, Turkey’s problem-solving opposition parties and the secularist youths who support them give hope that democracy will endure.
Apr 22, 2020
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Soner Cagaptay
Deniz Yuksel
Brief Analysis
Coronavirus Has Opposite Effects on Turkish Policy in Syria and Libya
Ceasefire agreements and contagion concerns will likely limit Turkish operations in Syria for the time being, but Ankara has no such constraints in its Libya proxy war.
Apr 17, 2020
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Soner Cagaptay
Turkey’s Imperial Foreign Policy: Vision vs. Reality
A deep dive into the evolution of Erdogan’s regional approach and how it informs the current crises in Syria and other hotspots.
Mar 6, 2020
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
A New Erdogan-Putin Deal in Idlib May Help—For Now
Turkey, Russia, and Washington have compelling reasons to welcome a new ceasefire agreement, however imperfect, but they still need to address the longer-term dangers posed by the Assad regime’s murderously maximalist strategy.
Mar 4, 2020
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Mar 2, 2020
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Feb 28, 2020
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Feb 14, 2020
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Feb 12, 2020
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Erdogan’s ‘Mini Empire’ in Libya and Syria
A deep dive into the evolution of Turkey’s Middle East policy and the mixed results it has had in two Russian-fueled conflict zones.
Feb 12, 2020
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Soner Cagaptay
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