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All Policy Analysis by Soner Cagaptay
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Articles & Testimony
Turkey's Lethal Weapon
From Ukraine to Syria, drones are reshaping Erdogan’s foreign policy.
Apr 27, 2022
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Soner Cagaptay
Rich Outzen
Brief Analysis
French-Turkish Relations: Foes to Friends?
The Ukraine war has greatly boosted their diplomatic and military cooperation, but lingering friction over Syria, Libya, and Mediterranean issues will need to be handled carefully if this rapprochement is to endure.
Apr 20, 2022
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Louis Dugit-Gros
Pierre Morcos
Soner Cagaptay
Video
Brief Analysis
How Will the Ukraine Crisis Affect Middle East Policy?
Three experts discuss whether the war might alter Washington’s calculus on rapprochement with Turkey, regional military deployments, and wider great power competition.
Mar 10, 2022
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Anna Borshchevskaya
Soner Cagaptay
Grant Rumley
Articles & Testimony
The Third Age of Erdogan’s Foreign Policy
Turkey has been forced to adopt a new approach abroad, presenting a valuable opportunity that the United States and Europe need to seize quickly.
Feb 17, 2022
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Rich Outzen
Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Will Turkey Help Washington If Russia Invades Ukraine?
Fears of Russian military power may keep Ankara out of the spotlight, but its Black Sea calculations and Crimean Tatar sympathies indicate a willingness to assist behind the scenes if necessary.
Jan 26, 2022
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Erdogan’s End Game: Will He Undermine Turkish Democracy to Stay in Power?
The president is very unlikely to win the next election fair and square, so he may well resort to undermining the vote, disregarding the result, or even fomenting a January 6-like insurrection.
Jan 4, 2022
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Turkey vs. the YPG: What’s Next?
As Ankara and Moscow mull a potential exchange of Syria border incursions for Idlib concessions, Erdogan risks endangering his intertwined goals of improving Turkey’s economy and minimizing tensions with Washington.
Nov 16, 2021
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Turkey’s F-16 Request May Not Stave Off the Inevitable
Washington and Ankara have significant diplomatic and security incentives for considering the deal, while rejecting it outright would likely hasten Erdogan’s drift into Putin’s orbit.
Oct 28, 2021
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Grant Rumley
Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
What's Happening with the HDP?
Tracking Legislators in Turkey's Liberal, Pro-Kurdish Party
Erdogan knows that a flourishing opposition could mean his political demise.
Aug 26, 2021
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Soner Cagaptay
Umut Can Fidan
Nibras Khudaida
In-Depth Reports
A Sultan in Autumn
Erdogan Faces Turkey's Uncontainable Forces
The unprecedented economic growth and personal popularity once enjoyed by the Turkish leader have given way to stagnation, a dwindling support base, and problems abroad.
Jun 6, 2021
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Biden Recognizing the Armenian Genocide Shows How Far Turkey and Erdogan Have Fallen
For the first time in years, Erdogan needs the United States more than Washington needs him, so Biden is seizing the opportunity.
Apr 24, 2021
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Soner Cagaptay
Video
Brief Analysis
Can Erdogan Charm Biden?
An expert conversation on the pitfalls and potential areas of cooperation between Washington and Ankara in the coming years.
Apr 21, 2021
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Soner Cagaptay
Asli Aydintasbas
Max Hoffman
Jenny White
In-Depth Reports
Defining a Realistic Policy Toward Erdogan's Turkey:
Advice for the Biden Administration
U.S. concerns center on Turkey’s democratic backslide and deepening ties between Erdogan and Putin—but the Turkish president also wants to develop a rapport with Joe Biden and fortify his country’s weakened economy.
Mar 24, 2021
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Soner Cagaptay
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Transition 2021
Articles & Testimony
Erdogan Will Play Biden, But Stick to Putin
The new U.S. administration will have a brief, early window to exert leverage, but Erdogan’s asymmetric relationship with Moscow may keep him from substantially altering Turkish policy on the S-400 dispute and regional issues.
Dec 9, 2020
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Soner Cagaptay
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Turkey's Opposition vs. the AKP: Measuring Messaging
Challengers to Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan are proliferating, with two breakaway parties drawing particular notice. In December 2019, Ahmet Davutoglu, who served under Erdogan as foreign minister and then prime minister, formed Gelecek (Future) in an attempt to resurrect a gentler version of the Justice and Development Party (AKP)
Dec 4, 2020
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Soner Cagaptay
Reilly Barry
Articles & Testimony
How Europe Keeps Losing Turkey
The EU has repeatedly gotten its policy toward Ankara wrong, inadvertently helping Erdogan at key points during the rise of his illiberal movement while creating preventable tensions over various regional and domestic issues.
Oct 28, 2020
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Soner Cagaptay
Raffaella Del Sarto
Articles & Testimony
Turkish Foreign Policy Trends: An In-Depth Conversation
The director of The Washington Institute's Turkish Research Program speaks with French students about what Erdogan's recent policy thrust means for Europe and the United States.
Oct 22, 2020
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Franco-Turkish Competition Ascendant
Given their sharply diverging views on conflict zones, secularism, and regional spheres of influence, the two states are swiftly becoming NATO’s next diplomatic hotspot.
Sep 23, 2020
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Aug 3, 2020
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Jul 24, 2020
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Soner Cagaptay
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