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All Policy Analysis by Soner Cagaptay
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Articles & Testimony
Turkey and Russia Are Not Friends, Despite Appearances
The truth is that Ankara feels threatened by Moscow, but security concerns, mistrust of the West, and an inability to secure American missiles left Erdogan searching for an alternative.
Jun 16, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
Andy Taylor
In-Depth Reports
Erdogan's Empire: Turkey and the Politics of the Middle East
The president has sought to restore Turkey's Ottoman-era reach and break ranks with traditional Western allies, but such an approach carries heavy risk of isolation, strategic miscalculation, and lost opportunities for the Turkish people.
Jun 10, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
The Race for Istanbul: Erdogan’s Plan A and B
Although massive state resources have been mobilized against Imamoglu, the opposition candidate has taken up the mantle of the underdog who could challenge the status quo nationally, just as Erdogan himself did two decades ago.
Jun 10, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
May 29, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Erdogan’s Failure on the Nile
How Turkey’s president went from being a regional Islamist leader in the Arab Spring to sharing Qatar’s role as the Middle East’s odd man out.
May 28, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Why Erdogan Will Win in Istanbul, and What This Means for Turkish Democracy
Despite the opposition’s resilience, the president can use any number of legal, political, or foreign policy tools to ensure his candidate wins this time around, no matter the reputational costs.
May 7, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
May 6, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Trump Has–Inadvertently–Provided a Fix to America’s Kurdish Problem with Turkey
Since 2014, Washington has relied on the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) to defeat ISIS in Syria. Yet Washington’s policy of working with the YPG in Syria, where U.S. support has helped the group soar, has concurrently undermined American policy regarding the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in Turkey, the
Apr 18, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
The Turkish Rupture Could Cause a Fissure in NATO
A dramatic rift seems unavoidable unless Ankara delays the arrival of Russian missiles and Washington provides security guarantees against Moscow and the Syrian Kurds.
Apr 16, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Apr 15, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Erdogan Should Seize the Chance for Change in Turkey
The president seems pragmatic enough to recognize when he is beat and refocus his efforts on normalizing the severely polarized political system.
Apr 5, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Apr 2, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
How Will Turkey’s Purchase of Russia’s S-400 Air Defense System Affect Ties with NATO?
An expert on Turkish politics expresses the view that alliance pushback may be weaker than in the past, but that the purchase could devastate U.S.-Turkish ties.
Mar 21, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Why Turkey’s Local Elections Matter
Many major jurisdictions are up for grabs, with potentially weighty foreign policy implications if Erdogan maintains his current coalition’s hardline nationalist trajectory.
Mar 20, 2019
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Murat Yetkin
Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
A Turkish ‘Safe Zone’ in Syria: Prospects and Policy Implications
Establishing such a zone in the northeast would give Ankara and the United States a unique opportunity to work together, provided Washington can convince its European allies to participate as well.
Mar 1, 2019
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Michael Eisenstadt
Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Feb 11, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Making Turkey Great Again
Given the numerous risks that lie ahead, it remains to be seen if Erdogan can deliver his country back to safety, let alone to greatness.
Feb 6, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Jan 14, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Sending the Right Message in Cairo: Advice for Secretary Pompeo
All eyes will be on the secretary’s speech this week, so striking the right balance between President Trump’s domestic imperatives and the realities of regional policy is crucial.
Jan 7, 2019
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Anna Borshchevskaya
Soner Cagaptay
Simon Henderson
Martin Kramer
Matthew Levitt
David Pollock
Dennis Ross
Dana Stroul
Bilal Wahab
Brief Analysis
Dec 22, 2018
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Dana Stroul
Soner Cagaptay
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