All Policy Analysis by Soner Cagaptay

The combination of premature steps would further damage U.S. credibility while giving Iranian proxies and Islamic State remnants free rein in east Syria.

Differences remain between Trump and Erdogan, but the two leaders are now talking again about vital issues such as Russian missile purchases, Syrian jihadists, and the Gulen movement.

The continued difficulty of integrating so many displaced people could make Ankara more amenable to a political solution that ends the war and allows large numbers of them to return home.

The president has cultivated an adoring crowd of inflexible ‘Erdoganists’ who feed on the politics of resentment and reject Ataturk’s pro-Western legacy entirely.

An economic meltdown may simply push his supporters to dig in on a worldview that posits unending Western assaults against the Turkish nation and wider Muslim community.

Rather than addressing the polarization his policies have caused, Erdogan seems set on a 'muddle through' strategy that will keep the country in a permanent state of social conflict.

With the president aiming to force a dominant-party system on a split electorate, Turkish society may be headed for a long-term political crisis.