All Policy Analysis by Soner Cagaptay

The truth is that Ankara feels threatened by Moscow, but security concerns, mistrust of the West, and an inability to secure American missiles left Erdogan searching for an alternative.

The president has sought to restore Turkey's Ottoman-era reach and break ranks with traditional Western allies, but such an approach carries heavy risk of isolation, strategic miscalculation, and lost opportunities for the Turkish people.

Although massive state resources have been mobilized against Imamoglu, the opposition candidate has taken up the mantle of the underdog who could challenge the status quo nationally, just as Erdogan himself did two decades ago.

How Turkey’s president went from being a regional Islamist leader in the Arab Spring to sharing Qatar’s role as the Middle East’s odd man out.

Despite the opposition’s resilience, the president can use any number of legal, political, or foreign policy tools to ensure his candidate wins this time around, no matter the reputational costs.

Since 2014, Washington has relied on the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) to defeat ISIS in Syria. Yet Washington’s policy of working with the YPG in Syria, where U.S. support has helped the group soar, has concurrently undermined American policy regarding the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in Turkey, the

A dramatic rift seems unavoidable unless Ankara delays the arrival of Russian missiles and Washington provides security guarantees against Moscow and the Syrian Kurds.

The president seems pragmatic enough to recognize when he is beat and refocus his efforts on normalizing the severely polarized political system.

An expert on Turkish politics expresses the view that alliance pushback may be weaker than in the past, but that the purchase could devastate U.S.-Turkish ties.

Many major jurisdictions are up for grabs, with potentially weighty foreign policy implications if Erdogan maintains his current coalition’s hardline nationalist trajectory.

Establishing such a zone in the northeast would give Ankara and the United States a unique opportunity to work together, provided Washington can convince its European allies to participate as well.

Given the numerous risks that lie ahead, it remains to be seen if Erdogan can deliver his country back to safety, let alone to greatness.

All eyes will be on the secretary’s speech this week, so striking the right balance between President Trump’s domestic imperatives and the realities of regional policy is crucial.