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ایران

Policy Analysis on ایران

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Iranians shop in a Tehran market ahead of Nowruz celelbrations in 2024 - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Sour National Mood Could Complicate U.S. Engagement
When it comes to fixing serious problems with the economy, energy, and other sectors, the reformists have been just as ineffective as the hardliners, eroding any legitimacy they might claim to reopen nuclear negotiations with Washington.
۶ مارس ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Patrick Clawson
Photo of an oil facility in Iraqi Kurdistan.
Articles & Testimony
Make Iraq Independent of Iranian Energy
By letting previous waivers expire, the United States can help Baghdad establish other suppliers and stand on its own feet for the first time.
۵ مارس ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
Here’s Why the U.S. Is No Longer the World’s Only Superpower
Mismatching objectives and means has repeatedly produced failure and undermined consensus, but Washington no longer has the luxury of bad statecraft on pressing issues like Iran’s nuclear program.
۴ مارس ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Dennis Ross
Iranian-American demonstrators hold signs at a protest in Washington, DC - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Why Secretary Rubio Should Provide Grant Waivers for Urgent Human Rights Work on Iran
Even a short aid freeze can do great damage to programs that are vital to pressuring the Islamic Republic, keeping Washington abreast of developments inside Iran, and ensuring the safety of those fighting for freedom on the ground.
۱۹ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Holly Dagres
Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed in 2018 - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
A Russian Win in Ukraine Would Be a U.S. Loss in the Middle East
With preparatory peace talks in full swing and the war set to enter its fourth year, Washington must take a pragmatic approach to enlisting Arab help and ensuring that the outcome does not empower Moscow and Iran.
۱۸ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Aerial view of the site of an Israeli-Hamas prisoner-hostage swap in Gaza in January 2025 - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
The Path to a Transformed Middle East: How to Keep the Peace in Gaza While Countering Iran
Very close allied coordination will be needed to strike the right balance between pursuing viable nuclear diplomacy and giving Israel the weapons and support it needs to use force against Iran if necessary.
۳ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Dennis Ross
  • David Makovsky
Cover for Iran Transition Note, with images of a pen with U.S. flag, a B-52 bomber, nuclear symbols, and Iranian flag + map.
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Policy Steps to Prevent a Nuclear Iran
Rather than choosing between diplomacy and military action, the Trump administration should think of these options as mutually supportive, sequencing its actions in hopes of achieving the best and least costly outcome.
۲۸ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Michael Singh
◆ Transition Notes 2025
Articles & Testimony
How Trump Can Remake the Middle East
If he uses his major regional leverage to curtail the Iranian nuclear threat and end the Gaza war, he will be well-placed to resume other important tasks that have been sitting on the back burner—including Israeli-Saudi normalization.
۱۶ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
Making Iran Choose Between the Bomb and Bankruptcy
The regime’s fears of new oil restrictions, simmering domestic unrest, eroding regional deterrence, and unpredictable U.S.-Israeli military action can all be leveraged to steer Khamenei away from racing toward a nuclear weapon.
۱۳ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
A photo illustration shows US and Iranian flags and an atomic symbol - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
A Last Chance for Iran
The Trump administration should give nuclear diplomacy a final shot—while preparing to use military force.
۲ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Richard Nephew
Iran's president-elect Pezeshkian speaks in Tehran - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
A Fateful Debate in Tehran
After blows to Iranian proxies across the region, reformists led by President Pezeshkian are prioritizing diplomacy and economic recovery, whereas hardliners are lamenting lost battlefield opportunities and seeking to preserve the regime.
۳۰ دسامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Ehud Yaari
Brief Analysis
Can Iran Restore Its Missile Mojo?
Despite questions about the utility of its huge missile arsenal—whose importance has only increased since the collapse of the “axis of resistance”—Iran will likely double down on this capability to ensure the viability of its military strategy.
۲۳ دسامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Michael Eisenstadt
  • Farzin Nadimi
An Iranian soldier wearing an IRGC uniform salutes in front of an Iranin flag - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Two “Axes” Converging in Iran
Iran’s Middle East “axis of resistance” and the Eurasian axis it shares with China, Russia, and North Korea are increasingly challenging the global and regional order, highlighting the need for more partnerships and a comprehensive counterstrategy with special efforts focusing on Tehran.
۲۳ دسامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Assaf Orion
Articles & Testimony
Will Stability Rise from the Middle East Rubble?
Though it may seem counterintuitive, the Middle East stands a decent chance of becoming more stable in the coming year if Trump takes advantage of Iran’s weakness to broker good deals.
۱۶ دسامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Dennis Ross
Security forces the Iraqi-Syrian border, after it has been reopened for trade and travel, in Al Qaim, Iraq in 2019 - source: Reuters
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Nujaba Projects Paranoia Over Domestic Security
Nujaba's immediate allergic reaction to regime change in Syria is a bellwether of how vulnerable Coordination Framework militias feel as pro-Iran hierarchies come tumbling down.
۱۶ دسامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Ameer al-Kaabi
◆ Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
Don’t Assume Iran’s Supply Lines to Hezbollah Are Cut
Tehran’s past efforts to reconstitute the group have passed through more difficult environments than post-Assad Syria, but an economical U.S.-led effort can complicate future smuggling efforts and further other counterterrorism goals in the process.
۱۲ دسامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
Syria Is the First Major Aftershock of October 7—With More to Come?
From stability in Jordan to the future of Kurdish autonomy, Lebanese sovereignty, and Iranian nuclear proliferation, officials must prepare quickly to prevent or manage—and in some cases even encourage—further shocks in the Middle East.
۱۱ دسامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Zohar Palti
Iranian presidential candidate Masoud Pezeshkian poses in front of a poster of Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei prior to Iran's 2024 presidential elections - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Iran’s New Presidency
Policymakers would be wise to view Pezeshkian’s rise not as a development that will change Iran, but as a reflection of a regime that is struggling to stave off domestic troubles.
۱۰ دسامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Michael Singh
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The Ideological Constraints of the Islamic Republic
As long as the Islamic Republic’s decisions are dictated by rigid ideological imperatives, any shift in Tehran toward pragmatism in response to the new Trump Administration will likely be superficial at best.
۶ دسامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Masoud Zamani
Brief Analysis
Mismanagement Makes Iran Vulnerable to a Different Type of U.S. Pressure
The country faces shortages of gasoline, natural gas, and electricity that make it newly susceptible to pressure against its oil product imports, not just its oil exports.
۴ دسامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Patrick Clawson

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