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شمال آفریقا

Policy Analysis on شمال آفریقا

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Brief Analysis
Egypt Endorses Gulf Reconciliation But Remains Skeptical
Although officials are playing along in order to maintain good ties with Saudi Arabia, they seem convinced that Qatar will exploit the new agreement in ways that harm Cairo's political and security interests at home.
۱۴ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۲۱
◆
  • Haisam Hassanein
Brief Analysis
UAVs and the Abraham Accords: New Horizons for Sinai Peacekeeping
Replacing manned monitoring missions with drone sorties and inviting Gulf countries to participate would help improve security, reduce America’s burden and risk, decrease costs, and bolster the regional peace architecture.
۱۳ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۲۱
◆
  • Assaf Orion
Brief Analysis
Enough Theory, European Strategic Autonomy Needs Practice in the Middle East
Libya, Iraq, and the Strait of Hormuz provide three test cases where greater assertiveness and transatlantic cooperation could go hand in hand, but only if European countries receive genuine U.S. support to step up their operational efforts and diplomatic engagement.
۶ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۲۱
◆
  • Charles Thépaut
  • Pierre Morcos
Articles & Testimony
Erdogan Will Play Biden, But Stick to Putin
The new U.S. administration will have a brief, early window to exert leverage, but Erdogan’s asymmetric relationship with Moscow may keep him from substantially altering Turkish policy on the S-400 dispute and regional issues.
۹ دسامبر ۲۰۲۰
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
A Matter of History, Diasporas, Diplomacy and Security: French Foreign Policy Drivers in MENA
French decisionmaking in Lebanon, Libya, Iraq, Syria, and other regional states is shaped by an adaptive but strategically consistent mix of security interests, economic relations, diplomatic activism, and cultural outreach.
۲۳ نوامبر ۲۰۲۰
◆
  • Charles Thépaut
Brief Analysis
Cairo’s Concerns About a Biden Presidency
Egyptian leaders fear that his administration will openly confront them on human rights and enable an Islamist resurgence, but the outlook is brighter for engagement on Turkey, Israel, and other issues.
۱۸ نوامبر ۲۰۲۰
◆
  • Haisam Hassanein
Brief Analysis
Violence Erupts in Western Sahara
If the long-frozen conflict descends into full-blown war, it would undermine U.S. interests in one of the few relatively stable corners of the Arab world.
۱۷ نوامبر ۲۰۲۰
◆
  • Sarah Feuer
Video
Brief Analysis
Terrorism in France: New and Old Trends in Jihadism
Three experts on European jihadism discuss the root causes and operational significance of recent Islamist violence in France.
۱۳ نوامبر ۲۰۲۰
◆
  • Laurence Bindner
  • Hugo Micheron
  • Aaron Zelin
Brief Analysis
The Sudan Agreement: Implications of Another Arab-Israel Milestone
The latest deal shows how firm U.S. pressure, quiet contacts with Israel, and domestic political breakthroughs can help Arab governments advance normalization even in the face of popular opposition and past military conflict.
۲۶ اکتبر ۲۰۲۰
◆
  • Ehud Yaari
Articles & Testimony
Bandar Speaks Out: The Changing Landscape in the Mideast
Palestinian leaders previously never had to acknowledge their mistakes or account for missed opportunities, preventing them from learning critical lessons and adjusting their behavior.
۱۹ اکتبر ۲۰۲۰
◆
  • Dennis Ross
Video
خلاصه تحلیل
اعراب برای صلح خطر می‌کنند: روایاتی از خط مقدم تماس‌های مردمی با اسرائیلی‌ها
فعالان مدنی شجاع کشورهای عرب درباره موانع بزرگی صحبت می‌کنند که در مسیر ارتباط با اسرائیلی‌ها و حمایت از عادی‌سازی گسترده‌تر اجتماعی و قانونی با آن روبه‌رو هستند.
۸ اکتبر ۲۰۲۰
◆
  • اسماعیل سید احمد
  • سکینه مشیخص
  • عهدیه احمد السید
  • محمد الحمادی
  • جوزف براودی
Articles & Testimony
Franco-Turkish Competition Ascendant
Given their sharply diverging views on conflict zones, secularism, and regional spheres of influence, the two states are swiftly becoming NATO’s next diplomatic hotspot.
۲۳ سپتامبر ۲۰۲۰
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
خلاصه تحلیل
آن‌سوی آتش‌بس در لیبی
تعهد علنی به آتش‌بس تحولی مثبت است، اما جزئیات زیادی هنوز هست که باید با حمایت فعالانه آمریکا حل‌وفصل شود، به‌ویژه تدابیر امنیتی در لیبی مرکزی و ازسرگیری سریع صادرات نفت.
۲۵ اوت ۲۰۲۰
◆
  • اَنس القُماطی
  • بن فیش‌من
Articles & Testimony
The Role of Russian Private Military Contractors in Africa
Moscow’s growing use of international legal loopholes in Libya, Sudan, and other countries gives it a worrisome template for chipping away at the global order without confronting the United States directly.
۲۱ اوت ۲۰۲۰
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Brief Analysis
New Egyptian Legislation Aims to Reduce Al-Azhar’s Authority
The latest twist in the long battle for control over Egypt’s religious realm could have profound implications for the state’s ability to regulate—and thus reform—Islamic discourse.
۲۰ اوت ۲۰۲۰
◆
  • Sarah Feuer
Brief Analysis
Normalization Is Making Cairo Uncomfortable
The UAE’s deal with Israel may render Egypt a junior partner in future peace diplomacy, aggravating its existing frustration over years of financial dependence on the small Gulf state and a string of foreign policy setbacks.
۱۹ اوت ۲۰۲۰
◆
  • Haisam Hassanein
Articles & Testimony
Turkey’s Search for Oil May Spill Over into Conflict with Greece
The current flare-up centers on differing interpretations of international law—a situation that should be employing lawyers but is instead deploying navies.
۱۲ اوت ۲۰۲۰
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Moscow and Ankara Will Continue Uneasy Cooperation
Putin set a trap for Erdogan long ago, and because the Turkish leader woke up too late to his predicament, he now has little leverage in the unequal bilateral relationship.
۶ اوت ۲۰۲۰
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Brief Analysis
East Mediterranean Energy Rivalries Face Harsh Economic Realities
Even if acute diplomatic differences are resolved, low natural gas prices will have a cooling effect on regional energy initiatives.
۱۷ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۲۰
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Russia Looks to Long Term While Navigating Libya Chaos
Moscow has intervened for self-serving reasons and claims neutrality despite clearly picking a side.
۱۷ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۲۰
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya

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