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شمال آفریقا

Policy Analysis on شمال آفریقا

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Algeria Morocco flags
Brief Analysis
An Algeria-Morocco “Peace Deal”? Managing U.S. Diplomacy and Expectations
The Trump administration has been alluding to a potential breakthrough between the two regional rivals, but striking near-term deals on issues like Western Sahara and MINURSO would only be the first step in a necessarily long-term U.S. diplomatic effort.
۲۳ اکتبر ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Sabina Henneberg
  • Souhire Medini
Moroccan youth protest in Rabat in 2025 - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
From Discord to the Streets: Gen Z’s Moment in the Middle East
Facing an uncertain economic future and fed up with corruption and mismanagement, young people in countries from Morocco to Iran have begun voicing demands for more responsive leadership and a more open society.
۱۰ اکتبر ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Holly Dagres
  • Sabina Henneberg
Libyan flags, Tripoli
Articles & Testimony
Can Municipal Polls Help Break Libya’s Political Deadlock?
Although top-down change seems increasingly unlikely, elected Libyans may stand a better chance of challenging the national status quo by pushing from the local level.
۳ اکتبر ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Ben Fishman
  • Sabina Henneberg
Russian fighters with the Wagner Group pay tribute to colleagues killed in Mali in 2023 - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
External Non-State Actors as a Source of Instability in West Africa: Hezbollah and Wagner/Africa Corps
An in-depth report on the corrosive role that Russian and Hezbollah elements are playing in Mali, Burkina Faso, Cote d’Ivoire, and other West African states.
October 2025
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
  • John Lechner
Officers of the Puntland Marine Police Force patrol the Red Sea in 2024 - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Fighting Pirates and Terror: The Development of the Puntland Maritime Police Force, 2010-2023
An expert traces the PMPF’s evolution from a maritime-focused entity to a potent counterterrorism force, exploring why it has been more effective than other local forces.
October 2025
◆
  • Ido Levy
UN peacekeeping troops serving with the MINURSO mission in Western Sahara - source: United Nations
Brief Analysis
Time to Pull the Plug on MINURSO? Not Quite
Despite Morocco’s growing diplomatic momentum and recent U.S. cuts to the UN peacekeeping budget, prematurely ending the Western Sahara mission would be a mistake given the important practical role it plays in maintaining the de facto ceasefire.
۲۴ سپتامبر ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Souhire Medini
  • Sabina Henneberg
Photo of Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam, September 2025.
Brief Analysis
As the Renaissance Dam Comes Online, the U.S. Mediation Role Needs Clarity
Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan were unable to agree on crucial water-sharing rights in the fraught years leading up to the GERD’s inauguration, raising the specter of escalating tensions unless the Trump administration engages more actively.
۱۷ سپتامبر ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Areig Elhag
  • Ben Fishman
Netanyahu, Trump, and Foreign Ministers Zayani (Bahrain) and Abdullah bin Zayed (UAE) at the Abraham Accords ceremony, Sep 15, 2020.
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Resilience and Roadblocks:
The Abraham Accords at Five Years
The architecture behind Arab-Israel normalization has survived the war years, but expansion to other countries will require a credible embrace of diplomacy, along with regional collaboration to shape Gaza’s future.
۱۱ سپتامبر ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • David Makovsky
President Kais Saied of Tunisia casts a vote in the July 2022 constitutional referendum.
Articles & Testimony
Kais Saied Appears to Be in the Driver’s Seat...For Now
Although Tunisia's president maintains an illusion of full control, labor unrest and voter apathy are mounting, making him more dependent on a small and potentially fragile circle of internal security institutions.
Aug 29, 2025
◆
  • Sabina Henneberg
Somali cadets march during a graduation ceremony following training in Turkey - source: Turkish government
Brief Analysis
To Halt the Jihadist Advance in Somalia, Work with Turkey and the UAE
Overhauled Turkish and Emirati training programs for the Somali army and renewed funding for the African Union mission could provide the boost that Mogadishu needs, and Washington should push for both.
۲۰ اوت ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Ido Levy
Articles & Testimony
In Tunisia, U.S. Tariffs Will Be Felt Across Many Fronts
For producers, the main concern is not lost revenue or market share but instead damage to relationships they have worked hard to cultivate.
۵ اوت ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Sabina Henneberg
A Sudanese protester against military rule
Brief Analysis
Washington’s Difficult Mission to Unify Sudan Diplomacy Just Got Harder
Although the summit cancellation is a blow, it could serve as an important moment for reassessment and recalibration rather than signaling the end of international mediation.
۳۱ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Areig Elhag
U.S. flag and Algerian flag; silhouettes of oil rig, migrant families
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Strategic U.S. Engagement with Algeria:
A Pathway amid Shifting Global Dynamics
Washington should help Algiers embrace greater openness, both to promote stability in North Africa and to advance U.S. interests like counterterrorism and economic competition with China.
۱۴ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Sabina Henneberg
A Sudanese protester against military rule
Brief Analysis
To Resolve Sudan’s Conflict, Merge the Jeddah and Quad Tracks
The best way to bolster the Trump administration’s new “Quad” initiative is by combining it with a previous Saudi-American platform that already has significant buy-in from the warring parties.
۲ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Areig Elhag
Articles & Testimony
Russia’s Defense Ties in the Middle East Poised to Rebound
Demand for Russian weapons has hardly disappeared—MENA officials would see even a limited or temporary Ukraine deal as a green light to quickly take advantage of Moscow’s new supply chains, so Washington should prepare accordingly.
June 2025
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
  • Matt Tavares
Articles & Testimony
Libya Is At Its Lowest Point Since 2020
Now that Libya has become an outright kleptocracy—with billions missing from the public treasury and national politics frozen—the Trump administration may need to throw a sanctions “grenade” into the mix.
۹ مهٔ ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Ben Fishman
Brief Analysis
Are Tunisia and Iran Really Growing Closer?
Although their diplomatic and economic overtures are on the rise, bilateral ties remain largely superficial for now, indicating a shared anti-Western posture rather than risky strategic cooperation.
۱۷ مارس ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Sabina Henneberg
A Syrian woman holds a portrait of her missing son during a protest against the Assad regime in 2012 - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Models for Transitional Justice in Syria
Post-regime experiences in Iraq, Tunisia, and Libya can help officials avoid the same mistakes in Syria, from over-empowering unaccountable armed groups to delaying judicial reform and economic improvements.
۱۸ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Mieczyslaw Boduszynski
  • Sabina Henneberg
A Tunisian maritime patrol boat intercepts a migrant boat in the Mediterranean - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Tunisia Shows How Europe’s Approach to Migration Is Untenable
To stem the growing threat of instability, European governments must develop a strategy to humanely address the migration crisis, both by reexamining their own policies and by pressing Tunisia to create a path for regularization of incoming sub-Saharan Africans.
۷ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Sarah Yerkes
  • Sabina Henneberg
French President Macron and Moroccan King Mohammed VI in Rabat - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
EU-Morocco Relations: Stuck Between Law and Politics?
If Washington and its European partners fail to remediate ongoing disputes over trade rights and Western Sahara, they may leave room for Russia and China to assert more influence in the kingdom.
۸ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Souhire Medini

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