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لبنان

Policy Analysis on لبنان

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Flags of Israel and Lebanon painted on hands outstretched to each other, overlaying map of Israel-Lebanon border and beyond.
Video
Brief Analysis
Is There a Pathway for Lebanon-Israel Peace?
A keynote conversation with Lebanese Member of Parliament Fouad Makhzoumi, followed by a panel discussion with Hanin Ghaddar and Eran Lerman. Watch live starting at 12:00 noon EST (1700 GMT) on Thursday, November 6, 202.
November 6, 2025, starting at 12:00 noon EST (1700 GMT)
◆
  • Fouad Makhzoumi
Flags of Israel and Lebanon painted on hands outstretched to each other, overlaying map of Israel-Lebanon border and beyond.
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
A Roadmap for Israel-Lebanon Peace
Pursuing even incremental steps will be difficult in a country long dominated by Iran’s chief regional proxy, but the two countries’ leaders have cracked the door open for future diplomacy.
۲۸ اکتبر ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
  • Robert Satloff
  • Ehud Yaari
Articles & Testimony
On Hezbollah’s Disarmament, Israel Will Not Compromise
There will be no peace, sovereignty, or reconstruction for postwar Lebanon until more of the group’s weapons are confiscated, but Beirut appears increasingly unwilling to tackle that task outside the southern frontier zone.
۲۴ اکتبر ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • David Schenker
Articles & Testimony
Global Gangsters: Hezbollah’s Latin American Drug Trafficking Operations
The director of the Institute’s counterterrorism program testifies on how the group’s postwar funding crunch will likely spur it to double down on raising money via its extensive criminal networks in the West.
۲۱ اکتبر ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
Russian fighters with the Wagner Group pay tribute to colleagues killed in Mali in 2023 - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
External Non-State Actors as a Source of Instability in West Africa: Hezbollah and Wagner/Africa Corps
An in-depth report on the corrosive role that Russian and Hezbollah elements are playing in Mali, Burkina Faso, Cote d’Ivoire, and other West African states.
October 2025
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
  • John Lechner
Brief Analysis
What Russian Oil Flows Reveal About Syria and Lebanon’s Energy Sectors
Greater U.S. attention to oil and trade dynamics in Syria and Lebanon can help prevent adversarial states like Russia and illicit networks from exploiting weaknesses there.
۱۱ سپتامبر ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Noam Raydan
A Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) soldier
Brief Analysis
Without a Hezbollah Disarmament Deadline, Lebanon Should Face Repercussions
The government and military’s decision to seize the group’s weapons is unprecedented and welcome—but it won’t mean anything without a clear and viable timeline for implementation, especially as political maneuvering for next year’s election begins.
۸ سپتامبر ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
An IDF display of weapons seized from a Hezbollah cache in southern Lebanon - source: Reuters
Maps & Graphics
Articles & Testimony
Disarming Hezbollah: Much Talk, Little Action
President Aoun has promised Washington that he will begin confiscating Hezbollah’s weapons soon, but he is delivering a different message to the group and its political allies.
August 2025
◆
  • Ehud Yaari
LAF soldiers study a map - source: Lebanese Armed Forces
Brief Analysis
Lebanon’s Moment of Truth
The government’s unprecedented decision to disarm Hezbollah is brave, but as U.S. officials have repeatedly discovered, continual pressure will be needed to ensure that Lebanon and Israel actually implement their obligations under the new plan.
۲۷ اوت ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • David Schenker
UN peacekeepers affiliated with UNIFIL are pictured along the Israel-Lebanon border - source: Reuters
Video
Brief Analysis
The Future of UNIFIL and Hezbollah Disarmament
Former Israeli and Lebanese military officials discuss whether the UN force can play any effective role in the urgent tasks of expanding Beirut’s sovereignty and disarming Hezbollah.
۱۸ اوت ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Khalil Helou
  • Sarit Zehavi
  • Assaf Orion
Hezbollah March
Brief Analysis
Now Is Not the Time to Ease Up on Hezbollah—or Beirut
After giving Lebanese officials a much-needed ultimatum for disarming Hezbollah and implementing financial reforms, Washington is now in danger of letting them once again punt these all-important tasks.
۹ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • David Schenker
Brief Analysis
Key Outside Actors in the Iran-Israel Showdown:
A Compilation of Washington Institute Assessments
Experts assess the roles that various actors may seek to play during and after conflict, including Hezbollah, the Houthis, Iraqi militias, Palestinian factions, and international powers such as China, Russia, and the EU.
۱۸ ژوئن ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
  • Noam Raydan
  • Michael Knights
  • Ghaith al-Omari
  • Grant Rumley
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
  • Souhire Medini
Newly elected Lebanese president Joseph Aoun reviews soldiers at the presidential palace in Beirut - source: Reuters
Video
Brief Analysis
The Next Era of Israel-Lebanon Relations? Ceasefire Status and Political Prospects
Three experts examine the security and political situation six months after the ceasefire agreement was signed, including the implications for next year’s Lebanese election, Palestinian refugee camps, and eventual normalization with Israel.
۹ ژوئن ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
  • Assaf Orion
  • Ghaith al-Omari
A United Nations peacepeeker scans the terrain in southern Lebanon - source: Untied Nations
Brief Analysis
UNIFIL’s Fork in the Road
The time for inertia is over—this summer, Security Council members will have a rare and urgent chance to break the spell of illusory “peacekeeping” and advance a model that actually helps keep the peace between Israel and Lebanon.
۲۹ مهٔ ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Assaf Orion
An IDF display of weapons seized from a Hezbollah cache in southern Lebanon - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Disarming Palestinian Factions in Lebanon Means Disarming Hezbollah
Given their deep historical and present-day coordination, Beirut needs to change its mindset of treating these groups separately and formulate a unified strategy for disarming them all—and the sooner the better.
۲۱ مهٔ ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
  • Ehud Yaari
Hezbollah fighters parade with flags in Lebanon in 2019 - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
There Is No Better Time to Disarm Hezbollah
With the group and its Iranian patrons at their weakest point in decades, Beirut has a real opportunity to restore its sovereignty, but waiting for another futile “national dialogue” may close that window.
۲۳ آوریل ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • David Schenker
A photo illustration depicts Israeli and Palestinian flags - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Surprisingly, the Lebanon-Israel Cease-Fire Is Holding
The agreement has withstood all challenges so far, thanks in large part to the mechanism that Israel and the United States set up to ensure Hezbollah's southern assets are addressed—one way or another.
۴ آوریل ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • David Schenker
A UNIFIL peacekeeper on duty in Lebanon - source: United Nations
Brief Analysis
Lebanon-Syria Border Talks Can Restrain Hezbollah and Boost Security
By encouraging the new Saudi-mediated talks with Damascus, Washington and its partners can help secure Beirut’s sovereignty, contain Hezbollah smuggling, and stabilize Lebanon’s other border with Israel.
۳ آوریل ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
Screenshot from MarineTraffic shows tracks of the Marina between Cyprus and Syria on March 28, 2025.
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Hezbollah-Linked LPG Tanker Sails to East Mediterranean
Past ties between the Marina and the Lebanese terrorist group, along with the ship’s deceptive practices at sea, merit U.S. scrutiny.
۲۸ مارس ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Noam Raydan
◆ Maritime Spotlight
Flags of Gulf Cooperation Council countries and Turkey on display in Riyadh
Articles & Testimony
Lessons from the Middle East’s Unfinished War
Definitive conclusions about the post-October 7 environment remain elusive, but it is not too early to draw lessons and consider the problems and opportunities that may arise from the recent upheaval in 2025.
۲۵ مارس ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Michael Singh

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