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Photo of Lebanese Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah onscreen while addressing a 2017 event.
Articles & Testimony
6 Consequences of Israel Killing Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah
By building on the death of an Iran-backed terrorist leader, President Biden has the opportunity to leave the Middle East better today than it was on October 8, which is no small achievement.
۳۰ سپتامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Robert Satloff
Flowers and a portrait of Hassan Nasrallah at a memorial to the slain Hezbollah leader in Beirut - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
How the Death of Hezbollah’s Nasrallah Brings a Renewed Opportunity for Mideast Peace
Netanyahu must translate Israel’s military achievements in Lebanon into political outcomes while also preventing far-right nationalists in his coalition from defining what is possible with the Palestinians.
۲۹ سپتامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Jeffrey Sonnenfeld
  • Dennis Ross
  • Steven Tian
Nasrallah
Brief Analysis
What Nasrallah’s Death Could Mean for the Hezbollah Network
Iran’s proxy faces steep challenges on the leadership and military fronts, and the international community can now act vigorously to free Lebanon from its grip.
۲۸ سپتامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
Men watch as smoke rises after an Israeli bombing of Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon in September 2024 - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Israel Dead Set on Beating Hezbollah Back
With prospects low for a near-term diplomatic breakthrough, the Lebanese group can decide how far this conflict escalates.
۲۷ سپتامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • David Schenker
Men watch as smoke rises after an Israeli bombing of Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon in September 2024 - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Israel and Hezbollah Are Escalating Toward Catastrophe
Both sides have major incentives to avoid a wider conflict, but they’ll need help escaping the traps they laid for themselves.
۲۳ سپتامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Dana Stroul
Articles & Testimony
Will Hezbollah Choose to Keep Its Word—or Its Arsenal?
The group must decide between walking back its threat to northern Israel or risking the loss of its advanced missile capabilities, which Iran regards as a crucial insurance policy.
۲۳ سپتامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
A Hezbollah fighter has his picture taken alongside a mural depicting deceased Hezbollah military leader Ibrahim Aqil at Aquil's funeral in September 2024 - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
The Death of (Another) Hezbollah Lifer
Like his recently killed predecessor, Ibrahim Aqil had a long history of murdering Americans, Europeans, Israelis, Lebanese, and others perceived as obstacles to Hezbollah’s ambitions, and his experience as a military and terrorist commander will be difficult to replace.
۲۳ سپتامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
One of the pagers destroyed by remotely triggered explosion in Lebanon on September 17, 2024 - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
How Exploding Pagers Can Lead to Calm Along Israel-Lebanon Border
Washington should push to negotiate limited border understandings now—it makes little sense to open a larger, more catastrophically destructive conflict if the outcome is likely to end up at the same place.
۲۲ سپتامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
Israel Sends Hezbollah Twin Messages
Israel’s cloak-and-dagger pager ploy was extraordinary, but will it change the group’s calculus?
۲۱ سپتامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
Articles & Testimony
Netanyahu Is Playing Into Khamenei’s Hands
Iran’s leaders are playing a long game; Israel’s leaders are not.
۱۳ سپتامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Dennis Ross
Articles & Testimony
Israel Turns Up the Heat on Hezbollah
As the war in Gaza seemingly winds down, the old rules no longer apply in the north.
۲۹ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • David Schenker
Brief Analysis
Another One-Day War? What the Latest Hezbollah-Israel Clash Reveals About Deterrence and Escalation
Israeli and Lebanese experts join two former U.S. officials to discuss what each party was thinking before, during, and after this weekend’s exchange of strikes—and whether war in the north has become inevitable regardless of near-term de-escalation.
۲۷ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Ben Fishman
  • Hanin Ghaddar
  • Assaf Orion
  • Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
The Pros and Cons of Salvaging (or Ditching) UNIFIL
Given the current lack of viable security alternatives on the Israel-Lebanon border, Washington may try to patch up UNIFIL’s many deficiencies—but it must do so with a clear understanding that the force has repeatedly failed its mission and squandered its credibility.
۲۰ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • David Schenker
  • Assaf Orion
A poster depicts former Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh alongside the Iranian flag in Tehran following Haniyeh's killing in Iran - source: Reuters
تحلیل کوتاه
آیا دو حمله‌ی اخیر مذاکرات غزه و قدرت بازدارندگی در برابر ایران-حزب‌الله را از بین می‌برد؟
چهار کارشناس انستیتو واشینگتن در مطلب زیر به بررسی محاسبات اسراییل در پشت انجام چنین حملات پر سر و صدایی در این برهه زمانی، تأثیرات احتمالی آنها بر روی مذاکرات آزادسازی گروگان‌های غزه، نیاز احتمالی ایران به پاسخ نظامی برای حفظ آبرو، و موارد دیگر پرداخته‌اند.
۹ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • دنیس راس
  • دیوید ماکوفسکی
  • نئومی نیومن
  • فرزین ندیمی
Hezbollah March
Articles & Testimony
Hezbollah Shadow Governance in Lebanon
In this chapter from the Jihadist Governance and Statecraft compilation, Mattew Levitt examines how Hezbollah exercises authority from outside the halls of formal state power.
۶ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
◆ Jihadist Governance and Statecraft
Articles & Testimony
Hezbollah’s Deadly Rockets Aren’t the Most Serious Threat to Israel’s Northern Border
The 30,000-strong militia has ground forces massed along the frontier, preventing evacuated Israelis from returning home and increasing the risk of a war that both sides would rather postpone for now.
۶ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
Hezbollah’s Retaliation Options and the U.S. Diplomatic Role
Regardless of how the group responds to Israel’s latest leadership strike, its desperation to stop the bleeding will create big diplomatic opportunities for the United States and its partners—if done right.
۱ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
Fuad Shukr - source: Twitter/X
Brief Analysis
The Death of a Hezbollah Lifer
For more than four decades, the late terrorist and military commander Fuad Shukr was at the forefront of the group’s most destabilizing activities, from killing American, European, and Israeli soldiers to procuring advanced weapons from Iran.
۳۱ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
Articles & Testimony
Europe Can Still Make a Difference in the Middle East
The challenge is to find a common line that accounts for different national positions on regional issues while still promoting a coherent foreign policy.
۲ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Ehud Yaari
Israeli flag, Hezbollah flag, implied Lebanon border
Video
Brief Analysis
Hezbollah-Israel Escalation: Prospects for War
A former Israeli military planner joins three experts to discuss each side’s current calculus and the U.S. policy implications if they opt for war or a truce.
۲ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
  • Hanin Ghaddar
  • David Schenker
  • Assaf Orion

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