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ایران

Policy Analysis on ایران

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A photo illustration of a bust of President Trump and an Iranian flag - source: Reuters
Video
Brief Analysis
Iran Endgame? Protests, Repression, and the Trump Administration
Three experts discuss the rapidly changing situation in Iran, including the status of opposition elements on the ground, the U.S. interests at play in the crisis, and Washington’s policy options for bolstering both.
۱۶ ژانویه ۲۰۲۶
◆
  • Holly Dagres
  • Michael Eisenstadt
  • Richard Nephew
Protesters trample on an Iranian flag - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Iran’s Regime Has Already Lost Its Most Potent Weapon
As protests grow, regime leaders have no clear options for scaring Iranians off the streets, intimidating foreign powers, or escaping their wider strategic crisis.
۱۴ ژانویه ۲۰۲۶
◆
  • Michael Singh
A protester holds a #FreeIran banner in Berlin - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Iran at a Watershed Moment? The Case for Meaningful U.S. Action
Acting now offers the best chance to halt atrocities and shape a peaceful transition, while waiting would only ensure that the next phase of the crisis is bloodier for Iranians, more dangerous for the region, and more difficult to influence.
۱۳ ژانویه ۲۰۲۶
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
  • Patrick Clawson
Articles & Testimony
Iran 1978: Hindsight Is a Wonderful Thing
Firsthand recollections of how the Islamic Revolution progressed on the ground raise questions about the current protest movement’s prospects for success.
۱۳ ژانویه ۲۰۲۶
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Video posted on social media shows violent protests on the streets of Tehran - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Iran Is Teetering. The West Isn’t Prepared.
To avoid being caught flat-footed, Western governments must begin policy planning for the destabilizing waves that could accompany regime collapse while urgently restoring support for programs focused on internet freedom, human rights, and similar areas.
Jan 10, 2026
◆
  • Holly Dagres
The oil tanker Aether, IMO no. 9328170
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iran-Linked Tanker Delivers Russian Crude to Syria: Assessing the Risks
The incident points to the myriad ways that U.S. adversaries might exploit Moscow’s efforts to claim a permanent stake in Syria’s needy postwar energy sector.
۹ ژانویه ۲۰۲۶
◆
  • Noam Raydan
Russian President Vladimir Putin meets Chinese President Xi Jinping at a summit in Beijing - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Failing Eastward Pivot? The Limits and Risks of Russia-China Alignment
Since the June war, Tehran has hastily doubled down on Russian and Chinese partnerships to weather sanctions and deter future attacks, but Moscow and Beijing are hesitant to invest deeply in return—and Washington should make sure they stay that way.
۳۰ دسامبر ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
The LPG Tanker GAS AURORA, IMO 9050187
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
What One LPG Tanker Reveals About the Reliability of AIS Data in Hot Spots
The vessel's tracked activities and suspicious data transmissions should be investigated for potential illicit transactions with Iran and the former Assad regime.
۲۳ دسامبر ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Noam Raydan
◆ Maritime Spotlight
An Iranian girl watches water being poured - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Khomeini Promised Free Water. Iran Is Running Out of It.
Reservoirs are drying up due to systemic mismanagement and other problems, and regime officials do not appear willing or able to undertake the necessary fixes.
Nov 28, 2025
◆
  • Holly Dagres
The national flags of China and Iran fly in Tiananmen Square during Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi's visit to Beijing, China, February 14, 2023 - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Seven Sons and Mullahs: Chinese-Iranian Defense-Linked Academic Collaboration
Recent academic output from both countries reveals joint research efforts in numerous military-related fields and some convergence between their defense innovation ecosystems, posing potential risks to the United States and its partners.
November 2025
◆
  • Assaf Orion
  • Jacob Sanchez
Iranian dissident Masih Alinejad speaks addresses a crowd at a courthouse - source: Holly Dagres
Brief Analysis
The United States Must Do More for Iranian Dissidents
Recent convictions in the Masih Alinejad case represent a win for dissidents everywhere, but a surge in Tehran’s hostile acts abroad requires more aggressive countermeasures, such as those laid out in the bipartisan Transnational Repression Policy Act.
۱۲ نوامبر ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Holly Dagres
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Self-Confidence Returns?
Leaders in Tehran are saying they won the June war and can stand up to Israel, leaving U.S. policymakers with the tricky task of how to stand up to Iran.
۴ نوامبر ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Patrick Clawson
Moroccan youth protest in Rabat in 2025 - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
From Discord to the Streets: Gen Z’s Moment in the Middle East
Facing an uncertain economic future and fed up with corruption and mismanagement, young people in countries from Morocco to Iran have begun voicing demands for more responsive leadership and a more open society.
۱۰ اکتبر ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Holly Dagres
  • Sabina Henneberg
Nuclear centrifuges in Iran
Brief Analysis
Four Keys for Iran Snapback Implementation
Inevitable attempts by Tehran to rebuild its nuclear and missile programs will require a U.S.-led campaign to track the regime’s proliferation activities and block transfers of related materials.
۸ اکتبر ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Richard Nephew
A screenshot of Iranian state media
Brief Analysis
Iranians Are Not Rallying Behind the Islamic Republic
The regime’s attempts to stir up nationalist support and increase its legitimacy postwar are not working—opposition is at a historical high.
۶ اکتبر ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Holly Dagres
Photo of a woman walking in front of a mural that shows missiles being launched from Iran.
Articles & Testimony
The Risk and Reward of Preventive Strikes Against Iran
Understanding the background of the twelve-day war and the considerations that shaped Iran’s past nuclear calculus can help illuminate the factors most likely to influence its future proliferation choices.
۳۰ سپتامبر ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
After Snapback, Washington Needs to Prepare for Iranian Escalation in the Gulf
Given Tehran’s long record of using maritime provocations to counter increased international pressure, the United States and its partners must be ready to respond swiftly and forcefully against ship seizures, mine warfare, suicide drones, and more.
۱۶ سپتامبر ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Nuclear Reconstitution Options
Iran’s leaders have several paths to restoring or reconfiguring their nuclear program—some more realistic or risky than others—so Washington should focus on shaping which route they choose rather than discounting the possibility altogether.
۴ سپتامبر ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Richard Nephew
Articles & Testimony
Snapback Sanctions Hit Iran
Actually enforcing them will require hard work by Western diplomats and experts in the face of opposition from Tehran, Beijing, and Moscow.
Aug 29, 2025
◆
  • Michael Singh
  • Richard Nephew
Brief Analysis
Will Renewed UN Sanctions Bring Iran Back to the Table?
Reimposing old sanctions may not have much economic impact if China sidesteps them, but Washington could still use the mechanism to pressure Iran on returning to negotiations.
۲۷ اوت ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Patrick Clawson

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