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ایران

Policy Analysis on ایران

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Screenshot of a map showing shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz.
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iran Is Still Intent on Preventing a Return to the Old Navigational Order
Constricted traffic patterns, escalating warnings, uncertain mine threats, and a new drone attack all suggest that Tehran has no intention of willingly going back to business as usual in the Strait of Hormuz, regardless of diplomatic breakthroughs.
۲۶ ژوئن ۲۰۲۶
◆
  • Noam Raydan
U.S. Vice President JD Vance speaks next to Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Qatar's Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al-Thani at the start of a quadrilateral meeting between the United States, Iran, Pakistan and Qatar at the Burgenstock luxury hotel complex overlooking Lake Lucerne, Switzerland - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Iran Didn’t Win the War: Tehran Is Still Losing the Long Game
The task now is not to achieve an unattainable final victory, but to consolidate allied gains, prevent bad outcomes on the nuclear and navigational files, and ensure that Iran remains weaker than when conflict first broke out in 2023.
۲۵ ژوئن ۲۰۲۶
◆
  • James Jeffrey
An Iraqi member of a Shia PMF militia
Brief Analysis
Making the Best of Iraqi Militia “Disarmament”
Although claimed compromises by some of Iran’s proxies are unlikely to result in actual disarmament anytime soon, Washington can still erode Tehran’s illicit financial networks by carefully exploiting the militias’ desire to be treated as normal political actors.
۲۴ ژوئن ۲۰۲۶
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
Pakistani and Iranian foreign ministers exchange documents relating to a U.S.-Iranian memorandum of understanding in Islamabad - source: Reuters
Video
Brief Analysis
A Postwar Middle East? The U.S.-Iran Negotiations and the Region’s Future
Three experts discuss the terms, gaps, and wider regional implications of the new MOU, including how it is being received inside the Gulf states and Iran.
۲۲ ژوئن ۲۰۲۶
◆
  • Richard Nephew
  • Dennis Ross
  • Holly Dagres
A photo illustration shows US and Iranian flags and an atomic symbol - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
This Is Not a Grand Bargain With Iran. Good.
Although the United States and the world needed shipping to resume through the Strait of Hormuz, negotiating a nuclear agreement is not a postwar priority.
۱۸ ژوئن ۲۰۲۶
◆
  • Michael Singh
A protester holds a #FreeIran banner in Berlin - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Trump Told Iranians to Keep Protesting. Then He Abandoned Their Cause.
With the regime still in place, the war has left ordinary Iranians worse off, and U.S. policy has compounded their sense of abandonment.
۱۶ ژوئن ۲۰۲۶
◆
  • Holly Dagres
A US Navy F-18 lands on a carrier flight deck - source: Department of Defense
Articles & Testimony
The Middle East Power Paradox: How the Iran War Will Transform America’s Military Role
Although the U.S. military approach to the region has delivered many operational successes, the Iran war has exposed its serious shortcomings and created new challenges.
۱۶ ژوئن ۲۰۲۶
◆
  • Dana Stroul
A sailor directs the launch of an F-18 from the flight deck of the carrier USS Harry S Truman - source: Department of Defense
Video
Brief Analysis
Back to Bombs or Driving to a Deal? Assessing the U.S.-Iran State of Play
Three experts discuss the fallout from the latest military strikes, along with the potential contours and implications of a newly announced agreement to halt the fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
۱۲ ژوئن ۲۰۲۶
◆
  • Dana Stroul
  • Robert Satloff
  • Michael Singh
Yemen's Houthis in formation.
Articles & Testimony
How the Looming Houthi Threat Could Turn the Iran War
Whether the U.S. truce with Iran breaks down or winds up rewarding the regime, the previously restrained Houthis may take it as a signal to resume their own aggression.
۹ ژوئن ۲۰۲۶
◆
  • April Longley Alley
Ships and boats await passage in the Persian Gulf - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
A Deal Could Leave Iran Fatally Weakened
The Trump administration won’t achieve all of its war goals, but it could still notch a strategic win with time.
۸ ژوئن ۲۰۲۶
◆
  • Dennis Ross
A man manipulates cables on a bank of internet data servers - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Iran’s Next Internet Blackout Is Inevitable
Flipping the kill switch is a potent exercise of authoritarian control, but expediting countermeasures like D2C can help prevent regimes from using this tactic in the future.
۵ ژوئن ۲۰۲۶
◆
  • Holly Dagres
Brief Analysis
Countering Iran’s Latest “Smart Control” Gambit in the Strait of Hormuz
Tehran is hoping that its Persian Gulf Strait Authority will establish “facts on the ground” and give it leverage at the negotiating table, so Washington and its partners need to respond right away with a suite of military, economic, and diplomatic countermeasures.
۳ ژوئن ۲۰۲۶
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
Flags of Iran, Hezbollah, and Lebanon are seen at a Quds Day celebration in Tehran - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Beyond Disarmament: How the IRGC Keeps Hezbollah in Power Despite Its Military Losses
Although disarming the group is still crucial, negotiators need to realize that they will never really break Hezbollah’s hold on Lebanon so long as it retains Iranian support and key political allies and government posts in Beirut.
۲۹ مه ۲۰۲۶
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
Egyptian troops cross a makeshift bridge over the Suez Canal in 1956 - source: Wikimedia Commons
Articles & Testimony
Is Iran America’s Suez Crisis? Not to Xi Jinping
Some may read Xi’s approach as a strategy to make America expend its strength far from Chinese shores, but Beijing increasingly looks more like a regional power than a global superpower.
۲۶ مه ۲۰۲۶
◆
  • Michael Singh
Turkish president Erdogan at NATO headquarters in Brussels
Brief Analysis
Turkey’s Limited Role in the Iran War
Power parity informs the view from Ankara, which has a strong interest in preventing Iran from going nuclear or alternatively falling into chaos—even as the war’s outcome will be largely outside Turkish control.
۲۶ مه ۲۰۲۶
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Drone Strategy (Part 2): Preventing Postwar Rebuilding and Advancements
Tehran’s drone ecosystem has been hit hard, but not at its roots—with help from Russia and China, the regime could restore many of the program’s capabilities within months while steadily working toward more dangerous next-generation models.
۲۲ مه ۲۰۲۶
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
A Shahed-136 drone in a military parade in Tehran - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Drone Strategy (Part 1): Wartime Performance and Adaptations
The war has shown that Iran’s one-way attack drones are highly adaptable tools of coercion and military effect, able to continue imposing costs across the Gulf region and beyond even after heavy losses.
۲۲ مه ۲۰۲۶
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
Ships of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet on exercise in the Persian Gulf
Brief Analysis
Shifting from Diplomatic Urgency to Strategic Patience on Iran
For decades, Tehran has repeatedly exploited Western diplomatic urgency to extract concessions, buy time, and refill its coffers; the answer is to turn time itself against the increasingly vulnerable regime.
۱۹ مه ۲۰۲۶
◆
  • Zohar Palti
A bread seller in Cairo walks past a sign promoting President Sisi - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Is Egypt the Biggest Loser of the Iran War?
Cairo’s economic mismanagement has increased the country’s reliance on Gulf largesse, but that spigot may soon run dry for diplomatic and financial reasons.
۱۸ مه ۲۰۲۶
◆
  • David Schenker
USS Boxer leads U.S. Navy ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz - source: Department of Defense
Brief Analysis
How to Accomplish U.S. Objectives in Iran
An agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the U.S. blockade could make it easier to ultimately address more complex issues such as Iran’s uranium stockpile, missile program, and support for proxies.
۱۴ مه ۲۰۲۶
◆
  • Michael Singh

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