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ایران

Policy Analysis on ایران

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Asad attack
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Militias Signal De-Escalation with the U.S., Return to Cosmetic Israel Strikes
The self-styled Iraqi "resistance" has hinted at a desire to end the tit-for-tat sequence of strikes with the United States and return to cost-free counter-Israel operations.
۱۸ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
Countering Iran in East Syria Means Moderating the SDF
Groups supported by Iran and the Assad regime have found some local traction due in part to grievances against the Kurdish-led SDF’s governance strategy in Arab tribal areas.
۱۶ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Andrew J. Tabler
President Joe Biden gestures while speaking - source: White House
Articles & Testimony
There Is Still Time to Stop a Wider War in the Middle East
Because the landscape has shifted since April, the Biden administration’s previous script for preventing irreversible escalation may no longer work.
۱۵ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Dana Stroul
◆ Risks and Opportunities in the Post-April 13 Middle East
The US Navy carrier Abraham Lincoln sails alongside an escort destroyer - source: U.S. Navy
تحلیل کوتاه
تنها یک تهدید تهاجمی معتبر می‌تواند ایران را از بالا رفتن از نردبان تنش باز دارد
در میان موجی از تحرکات دیپلماتیک و استقرار توانایی‌های نظامی ایالات متحده در منطقه، مشخص نیست که ایران شرمسار از کشته شدن اسماعیل هنیه در پایتخت خود به اسراییل حمله خواهد کرد یا خیر، اما یک نکته روشن است: اگر به ایران اجازه داده شود که حمله مستقیم به اسراییل را بدون پیامدهای معنی‌دار تکرار کند، سابقه خطرناکی ایجاد خواهد شد.
۱۵ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • فرزین ندیمی
Photo of a woman walking in front of a mural that shows missiles being launched from Iran.
Video
Brief Analysis
On the Brink? The Potential for a Broader Conflict in the Middle East
An Israeli general and two former U.S. officials discuss the prospects of an imminent Iranian attack and what can be done to deter it.
۱۴ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Amir Eshel
  • David M. Satterfield
  • Dana Stroul
A poster depicts former Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh alongside the Iranian flag in Tehran following Haniyeh's killing in Iran - source: Reuters
تحلیل کوتاه
آیا دو حمله‌ی اخیر مذاکرات غزه و قدرت بازدارندگی در برابر ایران-حزب‌الله را از بین می‌برد؟
چهار کارشناس انستیتو واشینگتن در مطلب زیر به بررسی محاسبات اسراییل در پشت انجام چنین حملات پر سر و صدایی در این برهه زمانی، تأثیرات احتمالی آنها بر روی مذاکرات آزادسازی گروگان‌های غزه، نیاز احتمالی ایران به پاسخ نظامی برای حفظ آبرو، و موارد دیگر پرداخته‌اند.
۹ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • دنیس راس
  • دیوید ماکوفسکی
  • نئومی نیومن
  • فرزین ندیمی
Screenshot from the Iran External Operations interactive map and timeline
Video
Brief Analysis
Mapping Iranian External Operations Worldwide
Three counterterrorism experts and former officials discuss a powerful new interactive tool and its implications for mobilizing international pressure on Iran and its proxies.
۹ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
  • Magnus Ranstorp
  • Norman Roule
Screenshot of the Iran External Operations interactive map
Maps & Graphics
Articles & Testimony
Iranian External Operations Interactive Map and Timeline
Access this powerful tool, which maps over forty-five years of Iranian clandestine operations around the globe.
۶ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
Rocket truck used to attack US forces at Al-Asad, Iraq, Aug 5, 2024
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
What to Make of Recent Attacks on Coalition Bases in Iraq and Syria?
The strikes are not yet numerous enough to form a definitive pattern, but they probably reflect deep militia divisions over whether to renew anti-coalition attacks in earnest amid the Gaza war.
۵ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Crispin Smith
◆ Militia Spotlight
Almustafa uni
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Profile: Al-Mustafa International University-Iraq
Far from a normal educational institution, al-Mustafa is the Iraqi branch of a U.S.-sanctioned Iranian entity that seeks to groom the next generation of Iraqi clerics, missionaries, pro-Iran political representatives, and pro-Iran militia members.
۵ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles
Fuad Shukr - source: Twitter/X
Brief Analysis
The Death of a Hezbollah Lifer
For more than four decades, the late terrorist and military commander Fuad Shukr was at the forefront of the group’s most destabilizing activities, from killing American, European, and Israeli soldiers to procuring advanced weapons from Iran.
۳۱ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
President of the Federal Supreme Court Jassim Abboud
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Profile: Iraqi Federal Supreme Court
Since 2022, the court has become a channel for Iran-backed militias and terrorist groups to secure “made to order” legal rulings that can have decisive political “lawfare” effects in their favor.
۲۴ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Crispin Smith
◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles
A fuel depot burns near the Yemeni port of Hodeida following overnight Israeli airstrikes - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
To Stop Israeli Attacks on Yemen, Enforce Sanctions on the Iran-Houthi Link
The humanitarian consequences of Israel’s port attack are real but should not be overstated, particularly when the true culprits behind Yemen’s persistent fuel shortages and famine risks are Iran and the Houthis.
۲۲ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Michael Knights
Iran's president-elect Pezeshkian speaks in Tehran - source: Reuters
Video
Brief Analysis
Opportunities and Risks with Iran's New Government
Three experts discuss the domestic and foreign implications of Masoud Pezeshkian’s presidential election victory—including the need to temper any expectations that he is able or willing to pursue substantial change.
۱۸ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Patrick Clawson
  • Holly Dagres
  • Saeid Golkar
Hamid al-Yassiri on Al-Rabea TV attacking Khazali in July 2024
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Atabat Leader from al-Muthanna Takes on Iran-Backed Militia Interests
The commander of Iraq's influential "shrine militias" signaled that the religious establishment is still willing to push back against the Coordination Framework and Tehran's other "resistance" proxies.
۱۶ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Ameer al-Kaabi
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Iranian presidential candidate Masoud Pezeshkian poses in front of a poster of Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei prior to Iran's 2024 presidential elections - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Talking Nicely with Pezeshkian While Postponing Major Steps
Iran’s new reformist president will need time to generate consensus at home before making any significant foreign policy moves; Washington should do the same.
۹ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Patrick Clawson
A screenshot from MarineTraffic shows the past tracks of the livestock carrier Shorthorn Express (IMO 9167318), which as of July 2, 2024, was sailing toward the British Isles.
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Are the Houthis Attacking Ships in the Mediterranean?
Direct strikes from the Yemeni group are unlikely at the moment, but a more aggressive Hezbollah could alter the threat picture.
۳ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Noam Raydan
  • Farzin Nadimi
◆ Maritime Spotlight
Articles & Testimony
Europe Can Still Make a Difference in the Middle East
The challenge is to find a common line that accounts for different national positions on regional issues while still promoting a coherent foreign policy.
۲ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Ehud Yaari
Faiq Zaydan meets Ebrahim Raisi, 2023
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Four U.S.-Designated Terrorist Groups Rush to Support Judge Faeq Zaidan
Iran-backed militias were quick to defend the judge after he was accused of being a tool for Iranian influence.
۱ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Amir al-Kaabi
◆ Militia Spotlight
A man walks past a billboard in Tehran displaying candidates for president in Iran's emergency 2024 elections - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Khamenei’s Second-Round Dilemmas
Allowing a runoff in the presidential election is a somewhat risky move for the Supreme Leader, but engineering a one-round outcome would raise domestic problems of its own.
۲۷ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Patrick Clawson

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