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ایران

Policy Analysis on ایران

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Iranian presidential candidate Masoud Pezeshkian poses in front of a poster of Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei prior to Iran's 2024 presidential elections - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Talking Nicely with Pezeshkian While Postponing Major Steps
Iran’s new reformist president will need time to generate consensus at home before making any significant foreign policy moves; Washington should do the same.
۹ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Patrick Clawson
A screenshot from MarineTraffic shows the past tracks of the livestock carrier Shorthorn Express (IMO 9167318), which as of July 2, 2024, was sailing toward the British Isles.
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Are the Houthis Attacking Ships in the Mediterranean?
Direct strikes from the Yemeni group are unlikely at the moment, but a more aggressive Hezbollah could alter the threat picture.
۳ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Noam Raydan
  • Farzin Nadimi
◆ Maritime Spotlight
Articles & Testimony
Europe Can Still Make a Difference in the Middle East
The challenge is to find a common line that accounts for different national positions on regional issues while still promoting a coherent foreign policy.
۲ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Ehud Yaari
Faiq Zaydan meets Ebrahim Raisi, 2023
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Four U.S.-Designated Terrorist Groups Rush to Support Judge Faeq Zaidan
Iran-backed militias were quick to defend the judge after he was accused of being a tool for Iranian influence.
۱ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Amir al-Kaabi
◆ Militia Spotlight
A man walks past a billboard in Tehran displaying candidates for president in Iran's emergency 2024 elections - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Khamenei’s Second-Round Dilemmas
Allowing a runoff in the presidential election is a somewhat risky move for the Supreme Leader, but engineering a one-round outcome would raise domestic problems of its own.
۲۷ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Patrick Clawson
A man walks past a billboard in Tehran displaying candidates for president in Iran's emergency 2024 elections - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Khamenei’s Presidential Choice: Weak Reformer or Strong Hardliner
Iranian presidential elections often produce surprise results, so a victory by Pezeshkian, the one reformist candidate, cannot be ruled out.
۲۰ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Hamas and Iran Are Trying to Ignite Israel’s Eastern Fronts
Jordan and Israel can take assertive action to alleviate the risk, from additional border security measures to economic steps such as lifting the ban on West Bank workers and establishing a humanitarian corridor in south Syria.
۲۰ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Ehud Yaari
HaH and Soleimani1
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iraqi Militia Propagandist Promotes Qalibaf for Iranian President
Iraqi media official and Kataib Hezbollah member Hamid al-Husseini underlined his growing importance in the Iran threat network by issuing the endorsement—possibly as a surrogate for the IRGC-Qods Force.
۱۸ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
Energy Watchdog Predicts Big Oil Surplus by 2030
Implied lower prices would weaken economic forecasts for major Middle East oil producers.
۱۴ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
IAEA Censure Risks Iranian Escalation
Tehran has a history of stepping up its nuclear violations after public rebukes; in the current environment, such escalation could have regional proliferation implications.
۱۰ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Iran Air passenger plane undergoing maintenance
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Aviation Accidents Aren’t Caused by U.S. Sanctions
President Raisi’s fatal crash put a spotlight on the dire state of aviation safety in Iran, but the regime’s gross mismanagement and corrupt profiteering are to blame, not foreign sanctions.
۵ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
Jordanian flag
Articles & Testimony
Iran Targets Jordan: The Kingdom Joins the Theocracy’s List of Enemies
Tehran and its proxies have been doing everything they can to destabilize Jordan during the Gaza war, from inciting protests and increasing drug and weapons smuggling to escalating armed threats from Iraq.
۵ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • David Schenker
A campaign poster with an image of Majlis speaker Muhammad Baqer Qalibaf on display in Tehran's Azadi Square - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Most of Iran’s Latest Presidential Aspirants Have a Domestic Background
Few of the prospective candidates have shown much interest in or talent for national security affairs, and none has articulated a vision for tamping down Iran’s aggression at home or abroad.
۴ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Patrick Clawson
Raisi ceremony
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Where Iraqis Landed in the Supreme Leader's Seating Plan
A ceremony held by Khamenei's office gave some clues about the pecking order of the Iraqi "resistance," with political players at the forefront and militia fighters and propagandists in the second tier.
۳ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Marshall Islands–flagged bulk carrier Laax (IMO 9512355), which was attacked in the southern Red Sea on May 28, 2024. photo obtained via the X/Twitter account of French forces stationed in the UAE and deployed in the Indian Ocean, https://x.com/FFEAU_ALINDIEN/status/1795837694960189920.
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Behind Houthi Attacks on Ships Operated by Greece-Based Companies
Links to Israel-linked companies, especially in light of the Rafah invasion, are again the culprit.
۳۱ مهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Noam Raydan
  • Farzin Nadimi
◆ Maritime Spotlight
Abu Fadak, Fayyadh
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The PMF Represents Iraq at the Axis of Resistance Conference in Tehran
Iraqi militias were nowhere to be seen at the Tehran conference, but an IRGC outlet described the PMF as appearing alongside Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and other U.S.-designated terrorist groups.
۲۴ مهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, gestures while speaking
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Emergency Election Will Signal Khamenei’s Intentions
As in past elections, the contest to determine a replacement for the late President Raisi will be less about the people’s choice and more about what direction the Supreme Leader wants the Islamic Republic to go.
۲۲ مهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Patrick Clawson
Nasrallah Ashura speech
Brief Analysis
How Israel’s Rafah Campaign Might Shape Hezbollah’s Operations
The U.S.-Israel rift over how to handle southern Gaza could embolden the Lebanese group to further accelerate its already heightened tempo of operations, though drawing clear deterrent lines could help limit the escalation.
۱۶ مهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
A Houthi propaganda image published by the group's al-Masirah TV network.
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Assessing the Latest Houthi Maritime Threats
Even increased aggressive activity in the Indian Ocean will be unlikely to seriously disrupt maritime traffic and global trade—but vessels calling on Israeli ports will need to take extra precautions.
۱۶ مهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Noam Raydan
  • Farzin Nadimi
◆ Maritime Spotlight
تحلیل کوتاه
منطقه‌ فلسطینی‌نشین زیر سایه بحران ایران و اسراییل
بحران کنونی فرصتی استثنایی در اختیار ایالات متحده آمریکا، اسراییل و شریکان آنها قرار داده تا ائتلافی بین‌المللی بر ضد ایران تشکیل دهند و به فلسطینی‌ها نشان دهند که اردوگاه "مقاومت" تنها راه آنها برای آینده نیست.
۱۳ مهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • نئومی نیومن
  • دوورا مارگولین
◆ Risks and Opportunities in the Post-April 13 Middle East

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