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ایران

Policy Analysis on ایران

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Fuad Shukr - source: Twitter/X
Brief Analysis
The Death of a Hezbollah Lifer
For more than four decades, the late terrorist and military commander Fuad Shukr was at the forefront of the group’s most destabilizing activities, from killing American, European, and Israeli soldiers to procuring advanced weapons from Iran.
۳۱ ژوئیه ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
President of the Federal Supreme Court Jassim Abboud
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Profile: Iraqi Federal Supreme Court
Since 2022, the court has become a channel for Iran-backed militias and terrorist groups to secure “made to order” legal rulings that can have decisive political “lawfare” effects in their favor.
۲۴ ژوئیه ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Crispin Smith
◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles
A fuel depot burns near the Yemeni port of Hodeida following overnight Israeli airstrikes - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
To Stop Israeli Attacks on Yemen, Enforce Sanctions on the Iran-Houthi Link
The humanitarian consequences of Israel’s port attack are real but should not be overstated, particularly when the true culprits behind Yemen’s persistent fuel shortages and famine risks are Iran and the Houthis.
۲۲ ژوئیه ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Michael Knights
Iran's president-elect Pezeshkian speaks in Tehran - source: Reuters
Video
Brief Analysis
Opportunities and Risks with Iran's New Government
Three experts discuss the domestic and foreign implications of Masoud Pezeshkian’s presidential election victory—including the need to temper any expectations that he is able or willing to pursue substantial change.
۱۸ ژوئیه ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Patrick Clawson
  • Holly Dagres
  • Saeid Golkar
Hamid al-Yassiri on Al-Rabea TV attacking Khazali in July 2024
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Atabat Leader from al-Muthanna Takes on Iran-Backed Militia Interests
The commander of Iraq's influential "shrine militias" signaled that the religious establishment is still willing to push back against the Coordination Framework and Tehran's other "resistance" proxies.
۱۶ ژوئیه ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Ameer al-Kaabi
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Iranian presidential candidate Masoud Pezeshkian poses in front of a poster of Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei prior to Iran's 2024 presidential elections - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Talking Nicely with Pezeshkian While Postponing Major Steps
Iran’s new reformist president will need time to generate consensus at home before making any significant foreign policy moves; Washington should do the same.
۹ ژوئیه ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Patrick Clawson
A screenshot from MarineTraffic shows the past tracks of the livestock carrier Shorthorn Express (IMO 9167318), which as of July 2, 2024, was sailing toward the British Isles.
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Are the Houthis Attacking Ships in the Mediterranean?
Direct strikes from the Yemeni group are unlikely at the moment, but a more aggressive Hezbollah could alter the threat picture.
۳ ژوئیه ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Noam Raydan
  • Farzin Nadimi
◆ Maritime Spotlight
Articles & Testimony
Europe Can Still Make a Difference in the Middle East
The challenge is to find a common line that accounts for different national positions on regional issues while still promoting a coherent foreign policy.
۲ ژوئیه ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Ehud Yaari
Faiq Zaydan meets Ebrahim Raisi, 2023
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Four U.S.-Designated Terrorist Groups Rush to Support Judge Faeq Zaidan
Iran-backed militias were quick to defend the judge after he was accused of being a tool for Iranian influence.
۱ ژوئیه ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Amir al-Kaabi
◆ Militia Spotlight
A man walks past a billboard in Tehran displaying candidates for president in Iran's emergency 2024 elections - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Khamenei’s Second-Round Dilemmas
Allowing a runoff in the presidential election is a somewhat risky move for the Supreme Leader, but engineering a one-round outcome would raise domestic problems of its own.
۲۷ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Patrick Clawson
A man walks past a billboard in Tehran displaying candidates for president in Iran's emergency 2024 elections - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Khamenei’s Presidential Choice: Weak Reformer or Strong Hardliner
Iranian presidential elections often produce surprise results, so a victory by Pezeshkian, the one reformist candidate, cannot be ruled out.
۲۰ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Hamas and Iran Are Trying to Ignite Israel’s Eastern Fronts
Jordan and Israel can take assertive action to alleviate the risk, from additional border security measures to economic steps such as lifting the ban on West Bank workers and establishing a humanitarian corridor in south Syria.
۲۰ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Ehud Yaari
HaH and Soleimani1
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iraqi Militia Propagandist Promotes Qalibaf for Iranian President
Iraqi media official and Kataib Hezbollah member Hamid al-Husseini underlined his growing importance in the Iran threat network by issuing the endorsement—possibly as a surrogate for the IRGC-Qods Force.
۱۸ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
Energy Watchdog Predicts Big Oil Surplus by 2030
Implied lower prices would weaken economic forecasts for major Middle East oil producers.
۱۴ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
IAEA Censure Risks Iranian Escalation
Tehran has a history of stepping up its nuclear violations after public rebukes; in the current environment, such escalation could have regional proliferation implications.
۱۰ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Iran Air passenger plane undergoing maintenance
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Aviation Accidents Aren’t Caused by U.S. Sanctions
President Raisi’s fatal crash put a spotlight on the dire state of aviation safety in Iran, but the regime’s gross mismanagement and corrupt profiteering are to blame, not foreign sanctions.
۵ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
Jordanian flag
Articles & Testimony
Iran Targets Jordan: The Kingdom Joins the Theocracy’s List of Enemies
Tehran and its proxies have been doing everything they can to destabilize Jordan during the Gaza war, from inciting protests and increasing drug and weapons smuggling to escalating armed threats from Iraq.
۵ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • David Schenker
A campaign poster with an image of Majlis speaker Muhammad Baqer Qalibaf on display in Tehran's Azadi Square - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Most of Iran’s Latest Presidential Aspirants Have a Domestic Background
Few of the prospective candidates have shown much interest in or talent for national security affairs, and none has articulated a vision for tamping down Iran’s aggression at home or abroad.
۴ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Patrick Clawson
Raisi ceremony
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Where Iraqis Landed in the Supreme Leader's Seating Plan
A ceremony held by Khamenei's office gave some clues about the pecking order of the Iraqi "resistance," with political players at the forefront and militia fighters and propagandists in the second tier.
۳ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Marshall Islands–flagged bulk carrier Laax (IMO 9512355), which was attacked in the southern Red Sea on May 28, 2024. photo obtained via the X/Twitter account of French forces stationed in the UAE and deployed in the Indian Ocean, https://x.com/FFEAU_ALINDIEN/status/1795837694960189920.
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Behind Houthi Attacks on Ships Operated by Greece-Based Companies
Links to Israel-linked companies, especially in light of the Rafah invasion, are again the culprit.
۳۱ مه ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Noam Raydan
  • Farzin Nadimi
◆ Maritime Spotlight

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