منع اشاعه

Believing that conflict is more likely than a diplomatic deal and that Israel will be involved in the fighting, Jerusalem has been intimately coordinating its military planning with Washington despite certain differences in their policy priorities.

Setting aside the broader array of deep Western policy concerns about Iran—including its terrorism sponsorship, direct and proxy aggression against Israel and the Gulf states, and brutal violence against its own people—what nuclear terms would negotiators have to insist on to avoid the setbacks of the JCPOA process and keep the regime from acquiring nuclear weapons for the long term?

Since the June war, Tehran has hastily doubled down on Russian and Chinese partnerships to weather sanctions and deter future attacks, but Moscow and Beijing are hesitant to invest deeply in return—and Washington should make sure they stay that way.

Inevitable attempts by Tehran to rebuild its nuclear and missile programs will require a U.S.-led campaign to track the regime’s proliferation activities and block transfers of related materials.

The deal seems mostly symbolic given that Riyadh is a major trading partner with India—Pakistan’s main adversary—but the implications may nevertheless be significant for regional proliferation concerns, nuclear energy ambitions, and related U.S. diplomacy.

Actually enforcing them will require hard work by Western diplomats and experts in the face of opposition from Tehran, Beijing, and Moscow.

While the recent military strikes against its nuclear program may further incentivize Tehran to go for the bomb, they may also complicate such efforts and give Washington more leverage to dissuade it.

The objectives of Operation Midnight Hammer aligned with the broader U.S. goals of curbing Iranian threats and stabilizing the Middle East—but military force alone will not produce those outcomes.

A compilation of views on the next round of prospective talks with Iran, sanctions relief options, military and technical considerations, the international role, and more.