ایران

Even if Washington somehow convinces Iran to cut off support for groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, this would not eliminate the threat they pose.

The crisis will challenge economic and political stability in the Maghreb countries, but they will also have opportunities—with Washington’s help—to fortify their prewar progress by filling gaps in global energy markets and other key sectors affected by the war.

Trump’s fifteen-point peace proposal suggests that he recognizes the need to find an off-ramp, but Washington must stay committed to that path to avoid a Russian-style quagmire.

His appointment as SNSC secretary shows that the regime is relying on a veteran hardliner to manage the crisis and preserve control.

With its leadership badly damaged and its security establishment humiliated by deep intelligence infiltration, the desperate regime likely sees little downside in setting caution aside and greenlighting a wide variety of international attacks.

Loosening Tehran’s grip on the strait and its disruption of the global economy would entail not only reducing threats to navigation, but also increasing pressure on the Iranian economy in order to deter further attacks and create leverage for diplomacy.

The war’s effects on Syria have largely fallen below the radar, yet no one should forget how much has changed there since 2024, nor how important it is to preserve the government’s accomplishments against Iran and its partners while acknowledging the conflict’s local economic consequences.

Beijing has been mostly talk and little walk so far, but once the war ends, it may decide to help Tehran rebuild militarily in return for oil.

Tehran is targeting the soft underbelly of the U.S.-Israeli campaign—the oil sector and vulnerable Middle Eastern states—but allied officials can counter this strategy by taking concerted steps to bolster their regional partners, stabilize oil markets, and suppress the regime's military capabilities.