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ایران

Policy Analysis on ایران

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A photo illustration shows US and Iranian flags and an atomic symbol - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
A “Good Deal” with Iran? Requirements for Preventing a Future Nuclear Breakout
Setting aside the broader array of deep Western policy concerns about Iran—including its terrorism sponsorship, direct and proxy aggression against Israel and the Gulf states, and brutal violence against its own people—what nuclear terms would negotiators have to insist on to avoid the setbacks of the JCPOA process and keep the regime from acquiring nuclear weapons for the long term?
۱۲ فوریه ۲۰۲۶
◆
  • Zohar Palti
U.S. and Iranian flags
Brief Analysis
Another Iran “Deal” Is Less Important Than Exerting U.S. Leverage
U.S. envoys should be focused less on making a deal and more on how they can use the prospect of imminent military strikes to secure concessions on the nuclear issue, missile threats, treatment of protesters, and other matters.
۴ فوریه ۲۰۲۶
◆
  • Michael Singh
  • Richard Nephew
Articles & Testimony
EU Takes Aim at Tehran: IRGC Terror Listing Opens New Front in Europe’s Iran Policy
Besides the welcome symbolic value of taking action amid bloody regime crackdowns inside Iran, the designation gives multilateral law enforcement agencies and individual member states a powerful new tool set for limiting terrorist plots and criminal activity on their soil.
۳ فوریه ۲۰۲۶
◆
  • Michael Jacobson
Flight deck crew issues commands to a U.S. Navy F/A-18 Super Hornet prior to launch from the carrier USS Harry S. Truman - source: Department of Defense
Brief Analysis
What If the United States Doesn’t Strike Iran?
No matter what President Trump may say about potentially securing “a good deal” from Iran, refraining from military action after weeks of dire U.S. warnings would likely convince Tehran that it can strike fear in other governments.
۳ فوریه ۲۰۲۶
◆
  • Patrick Clawson
A US Navy sailor stands in front of a map display of the Mediterranean Sea - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
U.S. Military Options in Iran: Means in Search of an End
Military strikes, stringent sanctions enforcement, and help for the opposition could sharpen the multiple crises that may eventually prove the regime’s undoing.
۳۰ ژانویه ۲۰۲۶
◆
  • Michael Eisenstadt
A photo illustration of a bust of President Trump and an Iranian flag - source: Reuters
Video
Brief Analysis
Iran Endgame? Protests, Repression, and the Trump Administration
Three experts discuss the rapidly changing situation in Iran, including the status of opposition elements on the ground, the U.S. interests at play in the crisis, and Washington’s policy options for bolstering both.
۱۶ ژانویه ۲۰۲۶
◆
  • Holly Dagres
  • Michael Eisenstadt
  • Richard Nephew
Protesters trample on an Iranian flag - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Iran’s Regime Has Already Lost Its Most Potent Weapon
As protests grow, regime leaders have no clear options for scaring Iranians off the streets, intimidating foreign powers, or escaping their wider strategic crisis.
۱۴ ژانویه ۲۰۲۶
◆
  • Michael Singh
A protester holds a #FreeIran banner in Berlin - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Iran at a Watershed Moment? The Case for Meaningful U.S. Action
Acting now offers the best chance to halt atrocities and shape a peaceful transition, while waiting would only ensure that the next phase of the crisis is bloodier for Iranians, more dangerous for the region, and more difficult to influence.
۱۳ ژانویه ۲۰۲۶
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
  • Patrick Clawson
Articles & Testimony
Iran 1978: Hindsight Is a Wonderful Thing
Firsthand recollections of how the Islamic Revolution progressed on the ground raise questions about the current protest movement’s prospects for success.
۱۳ ژانویه ۲۰۲۶
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Video posted on social media shows violent protests on the streets of Tehran - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Iran Is Teetering. The West Isn’t Prepared.
To avoid being caught flat-footed, Western governments must begin policy planning for the destabilizing waves that could accompany regime collapse while urgently restoring support for programs focused on internet freedom, human rights, and similar areas.
Jan 10, 2026
◆
  • Holly Dagres
The oil tanker Aether, IMO no. 9328170
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iran-Linked Tanker Delivers Russian Crude to Syria: Assessing the Risks
The incident points to the myriad ways that U.S. adversaries might exploit Moscow’s efforts to claim a permanent stake in Syria’s needy postwar energy sector.
۹ ژانویه ۲۰۲۶
◆
  • Noam Raydan
Russian President Vladimir Putin meets Chinese President Xi Jinping at a summit in Beijing - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Failing Eastward Pivot? The Limits and Risks of Russia-China Alignment
Since the June war, Tehran has hastily doubled down on Russian and Chinese partnerships to weather sanctions and deter future attacks, but Moscow and Beijing are hesitant to invest deeply in return—and Washington should make sure they stay that way.
۳۰ دسامبر ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
The LPG Tanker GAS AURORA, IMO 9050187
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
What One LPG Tanker Reveals About the Reliability of AIS Data in Hot Spots
The vessel's tracked activities and suspicious data transmissions should be investigated for potential illicit transactions with Iran and the former Assad regime.
۲۳ دسامبر ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Noam Raydan
◆ Maritime Spotlight
An Iranian girl watches water being poured - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Khomeini Promised Free Water. Iran Is Running Out of It.
Reservoirs are drying up due to systemic mismanagement and other problems, and regime officials do not appear willing or able to undertake the necessary fixes.
Nov 28, 2025
◆
  • Holly Dagres
The national flags of China and Iran fly in Tiananmen Square during Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi's visit to Beijing, China, February 14, 2023 - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Seven Sons and Mullahs: Chinese-Iranian Defense-Linked Academic Collaboration
Recent academic output from both countries reveals joint research efforts in numerous military-related fields and some convergence between their defense innovation ecosystems, posing potential risks to the United States and its partners.
November 2025
◆
  • Assaf Orion
  • Jacob Sanchez
Iranian dissident Masih Alinejad speaks addresses a crowd at a courthouse - source: Holly Dagres
Brief Analysis
The United States Must Do More for Iranian Dissidents
Recent convictions in the Masih Alinejad case represent a win for dissidents everywhere, but a surge in Tehran’s hostile acts abroad requires more aggressive countermeasures, such as those laid out in the bipartisan Transnational Repression Policy Act.
۱۲ نوامبر ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Holly Dagres
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Self-Confidence Returns?
Leaders in Tehran are saying they won the June war and can stand up to Israel, leaving U.S. policymakers with the tricky task of how to stand up to Iran.
۴ نوامبر ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Patrick Clawson
Moroccan youth protest in Rabat in 2025 - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
From Discord to the Streets: Gen Z’s Moment in the Middle East
Facing an uncertain economic future and fed up with corruption and mismanagement, young people in countries from Morocco to Iran have begun voicing demands for more responsive leadership and a more open society.
۱۰ اکتبر ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Holly Dagres
  • Sabina Henneberg
Nuclear centrifuges in Iran
Brief Analysis
Four Keys for Iran Snapback Implementation
Inevitable attempts by Tehran to rebuild its nuclear and missile programs will require a U.S.-led campaign to track the regime’s proliferation activities and block transfers of related materials.
۸ اکتبر ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Richard Nephew
A screenshot of Iranian state media
Brief Analysis
Iranians Are Not Rallying Behind the Islamic Republic
The regime’s attempts to stir up nationalist support and increase its legitimacy postwar are not working—opposition is at a historical high.
۶ اکتبر ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Holly Dagres

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