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A poster depicts former Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh alongside the Iranian flag in Tehran following Haniyeh's killing in Iran - source: Reuters

تحلیل کوتاه

آیا دو حمله‌ی اخیر مذاکرات غزه و قدرت بازدارندگی در برابر ایران-حزب‌الله را از بین می‌برد؟

چهار کارشناس انستیتو واشینگتن در مطلب زیر به بررسی محاسبات اسراییل در پشت انجام چنین حملات پر سر و صدایی در این برهه زمانی، تأثیرات احتمالی آنها بر روی مذاکرات آزادسازی گروگان‌های غزه، نیاز احتمالی ایران به پاسخ نظامی برای حفظ آبرو، و موارد دیگر پرداخته‌اند.

۹ اوت ۲۰۲۴

دنیس راس
دیوید ماکوفسکی
نئومی نیومن
فرزین ندیمی

Hezbollah March

Articles & Testimony

Hezbollah Shadow Governance in Lebanon

In this chapter from the Jihadist Governance and Statecraft compilation, Mattew Levitt examines how Hezbollah exercises authority from outside the halls of formal state power.

۶ اوت ۲۰۲۴

Matthew Levitt

◆ Jihadist Governance and Statecraft

Articles & Testimony

Hezbollah’s Deadly Rockets Aren’t the Most Serious Threat to Israel’s Northern Border

The 30,000-strong militia has ground forces massed along the frontier, preventing evacuated Israelis from returning home and increasing the risk of a war that both sides would rather postpone for now.

۶ اوت ۲۰۲۴

Matthew Levitt

Hezbollah’s Retaliation Options and the U.S. Diplomatic Role

Regardless of how the group responds to Israel’s latest leadership strike, its desperation to stop the bleeding will create big diplomatic opportunities for the United States and its partners—if done right.

۱ اوت ۲۰۲۴

Hanin Ghaddar

Fuad Shukr - source: Twitter/X

The Death of a Hezbollah Lifer

For more than four decades, the late terrorist and military commander Fuad Shukr was at the forefront of the group’s most destabilizing activities, from killing American, European, and Israeli soldiers to procuring advanced weapons from Iran.

۳۱ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۲۴

Matthew Levitt

Articles & Testimony

Europe Can Still Make a Difference in the Middle East

The challenge is to find a common line that accounts for different national positions on regional issues while still promoting a coherent foreign policy.

۲ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۲۴

Ehud Yaari

Israeli flag, Hezbollah flag, implied Lebanon border

Hezbollah-Israel Escalation: Prospects for War

A former Israeli military planner joins three experts to discuss each side’s current calculus and the U.S. policy implications if they opt for war or a truce.

۲ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۲۴

Matthew Levitt
Hanin Ghaddar
David Schenker
Assaf Orion

The Mari-B and Tamar gas platforms in the Mediterranean Sea off the coast of Israel - source: The Washington Institute

Israel Plans to Hike Gas Output Despite Hezbollah Threats

The deal could eventually boost supplies to Egypt, though Hezbollah’s robust missile arsenal and public threats against East Mediterranean energy targets may dampen broader regional investment in the sector.

۱ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۲۴

Simon Henderson

Photo showing flame and smoke rising over Lebanon's border with Israel.

Articles & Testimony

Behind the US Plan to Prevent an All-Out Israel-Hezbollah War

An American-led diplomatic initiative to separate their forces at the border appears to be falling short, and time is running out.

۲۵ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴

David Schenker

A protester's shadow falls across the flag of the Republic of Cyprus - source: Reuters

Hezbollah Threatens Cyprus: Capabilities, Intentions, and Potential Consequences

If Hezbollah’s conflict with Israel widens, the group could use its large missile and drone arsenal to attack Cyprus, the allied military presence based there, and a wide array of shipping and energy assets in the East Mediterranean.

۲۱ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴

Hanin Ghaddar
Farzin Nadimi
David Schenker

A man rides a scooter by a Hamas poster in a Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon, May 18, 2024.

The Muslim Brothers Give Hamas a Foothold in Lebanon

Most Lebanese Sunnis have resisted the MB’s mobilization so far, but this sentiment could shift quickly due to pressures from the Gaza war, the economic crisis, the local political vacuum, and the inroads being made by Hamas and Hezbollah.

۱۸ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴

Hanin Ghaddar
Aaron Y. Zelin

Thumbnail image of Google Map depicting Israeli and Hezbollah strikes across the Israel-Lebanon border since October 7, 2023

Maps & Graphics

Articles & Testimony

Mapping Clashes Along the Israel-Lebanon Border

A regularly updated visual tracker of northern border attacks by Hezbollah, the IDF, and Palestinian groups during the Hamas-Israel war.

۴ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴

Hanin Ghaddar
Ana Estrada Hamm
Miller Greene
Audrey Kost
Elizabeth Surman

Nasrallah Ashura speech

How Israel’s Rafah Campaign Might Shape Hezbollah’s Operations

The U.S.-Israel rift over how to handle southern Gaza could embolden the Lebanese group to further accelerate its already heightened tempo of operations, though drawing clear deterrent lines could help limit the escalation.

۱۶ مهٔ ۲۰۲۴

Hanin Ghaddar

UNIFIL peacekeepers in Lebanon in front of a poster depicting Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah - source: Reuters

An Israel-Lebanon Agreement May Not Be Worth the Costs

The lesson from past deals involving Hezbollah is clear: the group will try to pocket any U.S. concessions on the presidency and other issues while simply jettisoning whatever border commitments it may make in return.

۱۴ مهٔ ۲۰۲۴

David Schenker

Bourj Hammoud neighborhood, Beirut

Protecting Syrian Refugees in Lebanon

Given the breakdown of the Lebanese state, Arab countries' normalization with Assad, and the fragmentation of the Syrian opposition, it seems that the United States can step in to play a pivotal role in protecting Syrian refugees facing persecution.

۸ مهٔ ۲۰۲۴

Ammar Musarea

U.S. President Joe Biden greets French President Emmanuel Macron at the White House in December, 2022 - source: White House

U.S.-French Cooperation on Preventing an Israel-Hezbollah War

Washington and Paris have been pursuing convergent efforts to avoid all-out war, but more coordination is advisable and seems increasingly likely after the latest escalation.

۲۶ آوریل ۲۰۲۴

Selin Uysal

Articles & Testimony

Will Israel Temper Its War on Iran’s Regional Proxies?

Israeli strikes on Hezbollah and other militias in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq have yielded visible benefits at times, but future operations may elicit a direct Iranian response.

۲۴ آوریل ۲۰۲۴

David Schenker

A photo illustration depicts Israeli and Palestinian flags - source: Reuters

Changing the Israel-Lebanon Status Quo: U.S. Options

From exploring land border talks to boosting Israel’s arsenal and recasting UNIFIL, Washington should do more to slow what may be an inevitable slide toward war on this front.

۱ آوریل ۲۰۲۴

David Schenker

Energean's floating production unit, FPSO, is seen offshore Israel in the eastern Mediterranean in June 2022 - source: Reuters

Israeli Gas Field Near Lebanon Starts Production

The floating storage vessel anchored above the offshore field could be a tempting target for Hezbollah.

۴ مارس ۲۰۲۴

Simon Henderson

Israeli flag, Hezbollah flag, implied Lebanon border

Maps & Graphics

گزارش‌های تفصیلی

تقویت دیپلماسی آمریکا برای جلوگیری از جنگ بین حزب‌الله و اسرائیل

تنها یک ابتکار جامع با هدف محدود کردن نفوذ حزب‌الله در لبنان و منطقه، فرصتی برای برقراری صلح بلندمدت را به دنبال خواهد داشت.

۲۷ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۴

حنین غدار

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