لبنان

Israel’s cloak-and-dagger pager ploy was extraordinary, but will it change the group’s calculus?

As the war in Gaza seemingly winds down, the old rules no longer apply in the north.

Given the current lack of viable security alternatives on the Israel-Lebanon border, Washington may try to patch up UNIFIL’s many deficiencies—but it must do so with a clear understanding that the force has repeatedly failed its mission and squandered its credibility.

In this chapter from the Jihadist Governance and Statecraft compilation, Mattew Levitt examines how Hezbollah exercises authority from outside the halls of formal state power.

Regardless of how the group responds to Israel’s latest leadership strike, its desperation to stop the bleeding will create big diplomatic opportunities for the United States and its partners—if done right.

The challenge is to find a common line that accounts for different national positions on regional issues while still promoting a coherent foreign policy.

The deal could eventually boost supplies to Egypt, though Hezbollah’s robust missile arsenal and public threats against East Mediterranean energy targets may dampen broader regional investment in the sector.

If Hezbollah’s conflict with Israel widens, the group could use its large missile and drone arsenal to attack Cyprus, the allied military presence based there, and a wide array of shipping and energy assets in the East Mediterranean.

A regularly updated visual tracker of northern border attacks by Hezbollah, the IDF, and Palestinian groups during the Hamas-Israel war.