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Articles & Testimony
Would Russia Ever Help Syria Break Away From Iranian Influence?
Israel seems to hope that differences between Moscow and Tehran will emerge with greater clarity as the fighting ends, but this view reflects wishful thinking more than reality.
Dec 16, 2021
◆
Anna Borshchevskaya
Brief Analysis
Bennett Visit Shows the UAE Balancing Between Israeli Ties and Regional De-escalation
The meeting confirmed how eager both countries are to keep their economic progress humming along, but such cooperation could become complicated if concerns about Iran’s nuclear program come to a head.
Dec 16, 2021
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David Makovsky
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Egyptians Value United States and China Equally, but Dislike both Iran and Israel
Popular attitudes in Egypt support both the United States and China, and indicate relative stability on domestic issues.
Dec 15, 2021
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David Pollock
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Militia Playground: Kinetic Operations Refocus on East Syria
Iran-backed groups seem to be directing their more dangerous attacks against coalition forces in Syria, not Iraq, and the trend could accelerate in early 2022.
Dec 14, 2021
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Crispin Smith
Hamdi Malik
◆
Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Next Budget Assumes No Nuclear Deal
The government seems to believe the economy will grow significantly even without sanctions relief or increased oil revenue.
Dec 14, 2021
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Patrick Clawson
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
New Lebanon Poll: Sectarian Consensus Against Beirut and for Beijing
While all sectarian groups voice increased frustration with the government, positive Shia views on Iran still differ sharply from others.
Dec 13, 2021
◆
David Pollock
Carol Silber
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Ballistic Missile Arsenal Is Still Growing in Size, Reach, and Accuracy
Tehran has doubled down on the strategic importance of missile systems that can threaten U.S. forces and allies, even as its defensive justifications for such an arsenal ring more hollow than ever.
Dec 13, 2021
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Farzin Nadimi
In-Depth Reports
Seasoned Skeptics
Why Syrian Kurds Have Resisted Political Islam
The historic role of Sufism, an inclination toward the secular left, and recent repression under extremists have all driven the Kurds away from religiously informed ideology.
Dec 13, 2021
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Sirwan Kajjo
Oula A. Alrifai
Brief Analysis
Gulf Arab Summit Could Be Overshadowed by Israel-UAE Meeting
Normalization with Israel will be the elephant in the room at the Riyadh summit, though Iran diplomacy and persistent internal rifts bear close watching as well.
Dec 13, 2021
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Simon Henderson
Elana DeLozier
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Explosion in Basra Threatens Further Violence in Iraq
The explosion that rocked Basra on Tuesday may prove a harbinger of greater instability throughout the country in the post-elections period.
Dec 10, 2021
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Azhar Al-Rubaie
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The Militia Assassination Surge (Part 1): Sabereen and Unit 10,000 Threaten Iraqi Forces
Both outlets are openly advocating the murder of Iraqi security forces at a time of escalated shootings and bombings.
Dec 10, 2021
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Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights
Crispin Smith
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Militia Spotlight
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The Militia Assassination Surge (Part 2): December Attacks
Desperate militias are now killing Shia civilians in mass-casualty bombings as they try to assassinate Iraqi investigators and intelligence personnel.
Dec 10, 2021
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Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith
◆
Militia Spotlight
Articles & Testimony
Iran’s Nukes: This Time the Wolf Is Here
Given the regime’s considerable technical progress, even a good deal would only buy time rather than resolving the long-term nuclear threat.
Dec 10, 2021
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David Pollock
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
New Saudi Poll: United States, China, and Russia all Tie as Important Partners
As great powers match in perceived importance, the Saudi public remains hostile to Iran while being less so towards Israel or Turkey.
Dec 9, 2021
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David Pollock
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Akram Kaabi's Revealing Speech
Kaabi has long been Iran's chosen man in the self-styled Iraqi "resistance," and his latest remarks seemed like an attempt to seize control of militia public messaging.
Dec 9, 2021
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Crispin Smith
Michael Knights
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Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
Egypt’s Counterinsurgency Success in Sinai
The military’s shift to tribal engagement has helped reduce jihadist attacks, but Cairo’s lagging efforts on development and human rights could leave the peninsula open to a future resurgence.
Dec 9, 2021
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Ido Levy
Brief Analysis
The Summit for Democracy Skips the Arab World
To address the region’s democracy gap, Washington needs to develop consistent messaging on reform objectives and help its partners focus on achievable goals such as protecting free speech, dissidents, and civil society.
Dec 8, 2021
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Ben Fishman
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Kurds Are Fleeing Iraq in the Face of Uncertainty
There are economic, corruption, and governance factors at play in the migration of Kurds to Europe, but the most acute issue is the collapse of trust in the political future of the Kurdish Region.
Dec 7, 2021
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Yerevan Saeed
Articles & Testimony
Lebanon Stands at a Crossroad Between a Painful Revival and a Complete Submission to Iran
The country’s ongoing crises are closely intertwined with Hezbollah’s internal challenges, creating real potential for change if the West stands firmly behind fair elections, judicial accountability, and targeted pressure.
Dec 7, 2021
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Hanin Ghaddar
Articles & Testimony
Tehran Won’t Tolerate a Reset with Washington—But Will Take a Deal
As the previous nuclear agreement showed, U.S. officials don’t need to change the regime’s mind about America’s supposedly nefarious intentions in order to cut a deal.
Dec 6, 2021
◆
Amir Toumaj
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