Michael Eisenstadt is the Kahn Fellow and director of The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program.
Articles & Testimony
Iran’s future military activities will likely be marked by greater continuity than change, but Supreme Leader Khamenei’s succession could presage more risk-acceptant behavior and a reconsideration of its nuclear hedging strategy.
The Islamic Republic of Iran has three core components to its national security policy: its grey zone regional strategy; its unconventional force structure; and its nuclear hedging strategy. In the coming years, each of these will be influenced by: (i) lessons learned from more than four decades of experience, which have largely validated its national security approach; (ii) Iran’s nascent alliance of convenience with Russia; (iii) the policies of the ‘third Iranian republic’ that will emerge after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei becomes incapacitated or dies, and; (iv) the policies of the US and its partners and how these affect Tehran’s risk calculus...