Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Iraqi Militia Propagandist Promotes Qalibaf for Iranian President

Iraqi media official and Kataib Hezbollah member Hamid al-Husseini underlined his growing importance in the Iran threat network by issuing the endorsement—possibly as a surrogate for the IRGC-Qods Force.

Jun 18, 2024

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Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Brief Analysis

Energy Watchdog Predicts Big Oil Surplus by 2030

Implied lower prices would weaken economic forecasts for major Middle East oil producers.

Jun 14, 2024

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Simon Henderson

Brief Analysis

IAEA Censure Risks Iranian Escalation

Tehran has a history of stepping up its nuclear violations after public rebukes; in the current environment, such escalation could have regional proliferation implications.

Jun 10, 2024

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Simon Henderson

Iran Air passenger plane undergoing maintenance

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Aviation Accidents Aren’t Caused by U.S. Sanctions

President Raisi’s fatal crash put a spotlight on the dire state of aviation safety in Iran, but the regime’s gross mismanagement and corrupt profiteering are to blame, not foreign sanctions.

Jun 5, 2024

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Farzin Nadimi

Articles & Testimony

Iran Targets Jordan: The Kingdom Joins the Theocracy’s List of Enemies

Tehran and its proxies have been doing everything they can to destabilize Jordan during the Gaza war, from inciting protests and increasing drug and weapons smuggling to escalating armed threats from Iraq.

Jun 5, 2024

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David Schenker

A campaign poster with an image of Majlis speaker Muhammad Baqer Qalibaf on display in Tehran's Azadi Square - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Most of Iran’s Latest Presidential Aspirants Have a Domestic Background

Few of the prospective candidates have shown much interest in or talent for national security affairs, and none has articulated a vision for tamping down Iran’s aggression at home or abroad.

Jun 4, 2024

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Patrick Clawson

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Where Iraqis Landed in the Supreme Leader's Seating Plan

A ceremony held by Khamenei's office gave some clues about the pecking order of the Iraqi "resistance," with political players at the forefront and militia fighters and propagandists in the second tier.

Jun 3, 2024

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Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Marshall Islands–flagged bulk carrier Laax (IMO 9512355), which was attacked in the southern Red Sea on May 28, 2024. photo obtained via the X/Twitter account of French forces stationed in the UAE and deployed in the Indian Ocean, https://x.com/FFEAU_ALINDIEN/status/1795837694960189920.

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Behind Houthi Attacks on Ships Operated by Greece-Based Companies

Links to Israel-linked companies, especially in light of the Rafah invasion, are again the culprit.

May 31, 2024

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Noam Raydan
Farzin Nadimi

◆ Maritime Spotlight

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

The PMF Represents Iraq at the Axis of Resistance Conference in Tehran

Iraqi militias were nowhere to be seen at the Tehran conference, but an IRGC outlet described the PMF as appearing alongside Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and other U.S.-designated terrorist groups.

May 24, 2024

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Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, gestures while speaking

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Emergency Election Will Signal Khamenei’s Intentions

As in past elections, the contest to determine a replacement for the late President Raisi will be less about the people’s choice and more about what direction the Supreme Leader wants the Islamic Republic to go.

May 22, 2024

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Patrick Clawson

Brief Analysis

How Israel’s Rafah Campaign Might Shape Hezbollah’s Operations

The U.S.-Israel rift over how to handle southern Gaza could embolden the Lebanese group to further accelerate its already heightened tempo of operations, though drawing clear deterrent lines could help limit the escalation.

May 16, 2024

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Hanin Ghaddar

A Houthi propaganda image published by the group's al-Masirah TV network.

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Assessing the Latest Houthi Maritime Threats

Even increased aggressive activity in the Indian Ocean will be unlikely to seriously disrupt maritime traffic and global trade—but vessels calling on Israeli ports will need to take extra precautions.

May 16, 2024

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Noam Raydan
Farzin Nadimi

◆ Maritime Spotlight

Iron Dome rockets intercepting Hamas missiles over Tel Aviv

Brief Analysis

How Sustainable Are Defense and Deterrence Methods in Light of Iran’s Attack?

Despite the success of the allied response on April 13, Iran’s attack calls into question the sustainability of the current approach, suggesting that policymakers should rethink military procurement, force posture, and deterrence in the Middle East.

May 6, 2024

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Andrew G. Clemmensen

◆ Risks and Opportunities in the Post-April 13 Middle East

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi touring a nuclear power plant in Ukraine - source: United Nations

Brief Analysis

Nuclear Agency Chief Visits Iran: Expectations and Next Steps

Given the latest uptick in hostilities between Iran and Israel and their reported threats against nuclear facilities, the visit will likely emphasize diplomacy.

May 3, 2024

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Simon Henderson

Fikra Forum

Qaani’s Growing Leadership Struggles in a Post-Soleimani World

After the killing of Qods Force commander Qasem Soleimani, Esmail Qaani may have inherited a role for which he was not prepared, bringing instead a new style of leadership to the IRGC.

May 1, 2024

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Jaber Rajabi

Syrian Arab tribal mitiias supported by Iran, 2023

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Understanding the IRGC's Past, Present, and Future Use of Syrian Tribal Militias

Iran's development of Arab tribal militias in eastern Syria will likely accelerate again, based on the model established in Aleppo and backed by new IRGC-funded social, economic, and administrative "wings."

Apr 30, 2024

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Abdullah Hayek

◆ Militia Spotlight

The car carrier Hyperion Ray (IMO 9690559) was struck near Fujairah, UAE, in April 2021. The ship was owned by Israel-based Ray Shipping Ltd when it was attacked. Photo credit: Rick Voice via MarineTraffic.com.

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Pay Attention to Ship Seizures, Not Threats to Close Strait of Hormuz

Low-key actions like seizures can increase regional and global concerns and increase Iran's leverage.

Apr 29, 2024

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Noam Raydan
Farzin Nadimi

◆ Maritime Spotlight

Brief Analysis

Denial or Punishment? The U.S.-Israel Debate About How Best to Deter Iran

Experience shows that a balanced strategy blending deterrence by denial and deterrence by punishment can more effectively contain Iran.

Apr 26, 2024

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Michael Eisenstadt

◆ Risks and Opportunities in the Post-April 13 Middle East

Brief Analysis

Nuclear Gloss to Pakistan’s Diplomacy with Iran and Saudi Arabia

Multiple high-level visits suggest economic desperation mixed with strategic—and possibly nuclear—opportunism.

Apr 25, 2024

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Simon Henderson

The national flag of Malaysia - source: World Bank

Brief Analysis

The Malaysia-Iran-Israel Triangle Amid the Gaza War

Kuala Lumpur is once again displaying its willingness to facilitate Iran’s illicit activity, support Hamas, and amplify anti-Israel rhetoric well beyond what its neighbors have countenanced.

Apr 25, 2024

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Rebecca Redlich

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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Featured experts

Farzin Nadimi

Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Fellow with The Washington Institute, is a Washington-based analyst specializing in the security and defense affairs of Iran and the Persian Gulf region.

Patrick Clawson

Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and Research Counselor at The Washington Institute.

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Policy Analysis on Iran

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