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Will Iran Turn to Terrorism?
Also published in Foreign Affairs
With its leadership badly damaged and its security establishment humiliated by deep intelligence infiltration, the desperate regime likely sees little downside in setting caution aside and greenlighting a wide variety of international attacks.
At the outset of Operation Epic Fury, U.S. authorities went on a nationwide high alert against acts of terrorism carried out by Iran and its proxies—with good reason. Days after U.S. and Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the IRGC’s Qods Force broadcast a warning that “the enemy should know that their happy days are over and they will no longer be safe anywhere in the world, not even in their own homes.” Since the threat, operatives acting at Iran’s behest have been tied to plots in Azerbaijan, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and the United Kingdom. According to President Trump, the regime may also be trying to activate sleeper cells in the United States. Tehran has typically been careful about how, when, and where to employ terrorism to achieve its goals. Today, however, the regime feels its revolutionary project is under existential threat. The assassination of Khamenei and other senior officials, along with open discussion in Washington and Jerusalem of regime change, has convinced Tehran that it should go to any length possible to stop the war—including by bringing it home to the United States...