Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Photo of a woman walking in front of a mural that shows missiles being launched from Iran.

On the Brink? The Potential for a Broader Conflict in the Middle East

An Israeli general and two former U.S. officials discuss the prospects of an imminent Iranian attack and what can be done to deter it.

Aug 14, 2024

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Amir Eshel
David M. Satterfield
Dana Stroul

The US Navy carrier Abraham Lincoln sails alongside an escort destroyer - source: U.S. Navy

Brief Analysis

Only a Credible Offensive Threat Can Deter Iran from Climbing the Escalation Ladder

Amid a flurry of U.S. military deployments and allied diplomacy, it is uncertain if an embarrassed Tehran will attack Israel, but one thing is clear: allowing it to do so again without meaningful consequences would set a dangerous precedent.

Aug 9, 2024

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Farzin Nadimi

Screenshot from the Iran External Operations interactive map and timeline

Video

Brief Analysis

Mapping Iranian External Operations Worldwide

Three counterterrorism experts and former officials discuss a powerful new interactive tool and its implications for mobilizing international pressure on Iran and its proxies.

Aug 9, 2024

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Matthew Levitt
Magnus Ranstorp
Norman Roule

Screenshot of the Iran External Operations interactive map

Maps & Graphics

Articles & Testimony

Iranian External Operations Interactive Map and Timeline

Access this powerful tool, which maps over forty-five years of Iranian clandestine operations around the globe.

Aug 6, 2024

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Matthew Levitt

Rocket truck used to attack US forces at Al-Asad, Iraq, Aug 5, 2024

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

What to Make of Recent Attacks on Coalition Bases in Iraq and Syria?

The strikes are not yet numerous enough to form a definitive pattern, but they probably reflect deep militia divisions over whether to renew anti-coalition attacks in earnest amid the Gaza war.

Aug 5, 2024

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Michael Knights
Crispin Smith

◆ Militia Spotlight

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Profile: Al-Mustafa International University-Iraq

Far from a normal educational institution, al-Mustafa is the Iraqi branch of a U.S.-sanctioned Iranian entity that seeks to groom the next generation of Iraqi clerics, missionaries, pro-Iran political representatives, and pro-Iran militia members.

Aug 5, 2024

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Hamdi Malik

◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles

Screenshot excerpt of a StoryMap covering maritime attacks in the Middle East.

Maps & Graphics

Articles & Testimony

Tracking Maritime Attacks in the Middle East Since 2019

An interactive map showing the extent to which Houthi forces, their Iranian military patrons, and other actors have been targeting vessels in regional waterways for years, including well before the Hamas-Israel war.

Aug 3, 2024

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Noam Raydan
Farzin Nadimi

◆ Maritime Spotlight

A poster depicts former Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh alongside the Iranian flag in Tehran following Haniyeh's killing in Iran - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Will Two Attacks Kill the Gaza Talks and Iran-Hezbollah Deterrence?

Four Washington Institute experts assess Israel’s calculus behind launching such high-profile attacks at this juncture, the likely effects on the Gaza hostage talks, Iran’s possible need for a face-saving military response, and more.

Aug 1, 2024

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Dennis Ross
David Makovsky
Neomi Neumann
Farzin Nadimi

Brief Analysis

The Death of a Hezbollah Lifer

For more than four decades, the late terrorist and military commander Fuad Shukr was at the forefront of the group’s most destabilizing activities, from killing American, European, and Israeli soldiers to procuring advanced weapons from Iran.

Jul 31, 2024

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Matthew Levitt

President of the Federal Supreme Court Jassim Abboud

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Profile: Iraqi Federal Supreme Court

Since 2022, the court has become a channel for Iran-backed militias and terrorist groups to secure “made to order” legal rulings that can have decisive political “lawfare” effects in their favor.

Jul 24, 2024

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Michael Knights
Crispin Smith

◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles

A fuel depot burns near the Yemeni port of Hodeida following overnight Israeli airstrikes - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

To Stop Israeli Attacks on Yemen, Enforce Sanctions on the Iran-Houthi Link

The humanitarian consequences of Israel’s port attack are real but should not be overstated, particularly when the true culprits behind Yemen’s persistent fuel shortages and famine risks are Iran and the Houthis.

Jul 22, 2024

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Michael Knights

Iran's president-elect Pezeshkian speaks in Tehran - source: Reuters

Video

Brief Analysis

Opportunities and Risks with Iran's New Government

Three experts discuss the domestic and foreign implications of Masoud Pezeshkian’s presidential election victory—including the need to temper any expectations that he is able or willing to pursue substantial change.

Jul 18, 2024

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Patrick Clawson
Holly Dagres
Saeid Golkar

Hamid al-Yassiri on Al-Rabea TV attacking Khazali in July 2024

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Atabat Leader from al-Muthanna Takes on Iran-Backed Militia Interests

The commander of Iraq's influential "shrine militias" signaled that the religious establishment is still willing to push back against the Coordination Framework and Tehran's other "resistance" proxies.

Jul 16, 2024

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Ameer al-Kaabi
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Iranian presidential candidate Masoud Pezeshkian poses in front of a poster of Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei prior to Iran's 2024 presidential elections - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Talking Nicely with Pezeshkian While Postponing Major Steps

Iran’s new reformist president will need time to generate consensus at home before making any significant foreign policy moves; Washington should do the same.

Jul 9, 2024

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Patrick Clawson

A screenshot from MarineTraffic shows the past tracks of the livestock carrier Shorthorn Express (IMO 9167318), which as of July 2, 2024, was sailing toward the British Isles.

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Are the Houthis Attacking Ships in the Mediterranean?

Direct strikes from the Yemeni group are unlikely at the moment, but a more aggressive Hezbollah could alter the threat picture.

Jul 3, 2024

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Noam Raydan
Farzin Nadimi

◆ Maritime Spotlight

Articles & Testimony

Europe Can Still Make a Difference in the Middle East

The challenge is to find a common line that accounts for different national positions on regional issues while still promoting a coherent foreign policy.

Jul 2, 2024

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Ehud Yaari

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Four U.S.-Designated Terrorist Groups Rush to Support Judge Faeq Zaidan

Iran-backed militias were quick to defend the judge after he was accused of being a tool for Iranian influence.

Jul 1, 2024

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Amir al-Kaabi

◆ Militia Spotlight

A man walks past a billboard in Tehran displaying candidates for president in Iran's emergency 2024 elections - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Khamenei’s Second-Round Dilemmas

Allowing a runoff in the presidential election is a somewhat risky move for the Supreme Leader, but engineering a one-round outcome would raise domestic problems of its own.

Jun 27, 2024

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Patrick Clawson

Brief Analysis

Khamenei’s Presidential Choice: Weak Reformer or Strong Hardliner

Iranian presidential elections often produce surprise results, so a victory by Pezeshkian, the one reformist candidate, cannot be ruled out.

Jun 20, 2024

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Patrick Clawson

Brief Analysis

Hamas and Iran Are Trying to Ignite Israel’s Eastern Fronts

Jordan and Israel can take assertive action to alleviate the risk, from additional border security measures to economic steps such as lifting the ban on West Bank workers and establishing a humanitarian corridor in south Syria.

Jun 20, 2024

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Ehud Yaari

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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Featured experts

Farzin Nadimi

Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Fellow with The Washington Institute, is a Washington-based analyst specializing in the security and defense affairs of Iran and the Persian Gulf region.

Patrick Clawson

Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and Research Counselor at The Washington Institute.

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Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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