Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

U.S. Central Command graphic, Aug 15, 2022 drone attack on Al Tanf

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Kataib Hezbollah's Role in the August 15 al-Tanf Attack

The Syria strike was launched from the militia's bastion in Iraq and used Iranian-provided KAS-04 explosive drones.

Aug 25, 2022

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Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Articles & Testimony

Biden’s Indifference Has Given Iran the Upper Hand in Iraq

In light of Tehran’s concerted efforts to reverse last year’s electoral setback, it has become too risky to let Baghdad’s nascent democracy simply fend for itself.

Aug 24, 2022

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David Schenker

Iranian presidential candidate Ebrahim Raisi speaking in 2021

Brief Analysis

Iran Garnering Internal Support for a Potential Nuclear Deal

Although it is still unclear if the Supreme Leader will approve the necessary compromises, regime officials are maximizing their room for maneuver by preparing the country either way—assuming the economy doesn’t force their hand.

Aug 22, 2022

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Omer Carmi

Fikra Forum

Failed Promises in Iran’s Free Trade Zones

Iran’s free trade zone project was intended to create jobs, boost investment, and integrate Iran’s economy. Instead, poor infrastructure and corrupt officials turned the zones into monopolized markets that do more harm than good.

Aug 17, 2022

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Bahman Azar

Articles & Testimony

Contending with IRGC Plots

Why do Iranian officials keep ordering hits on U.S. soil in the middle of sensitive negotiations? Because they know they can get away with it.

Aug 16, 2022

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Matthew Levitt

Brief Analysis

The Rushdie Attack and Iran’s Deceptive “Fatwas”

Whether or not Tehran is proven to be involved, the incident holds significant implications for the regime's international diplomacy and terrorist activity—not to mention its claims about the applicability of Khamenei’s “nuclear fatwa.”

Aug 15, 2022

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Mehdi Khalaji

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Profile: Kataib Aimmat al-Baqi

A Diyala-based militia that offered its services to Nouri al-Maliki on a leaked audiotape from July 2022.

Aug 15, 2022

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May Riad
Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Khazali Isolated Over International Zone Protests

The militia leader is being constrained by other members of the Iran-dominated Shia Coordination Framework regarding how to respond to Sadrist protests.

Aug 3, 2022

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Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Photo of a Shahed drone in an Iranian military parade near imagery of Supreme Leader Khamenei..

Brief Analysis

Iranian Drones to Russia: Capabilities and Limitations

Besides signaling that Iran has shifted to active military support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, the prospective transfer gives Moscow a stopgap option until its own advanced drones are ready for service.

Aug 1, 2022

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Farzin Nadimi

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Profile: Liwa Ahrar al-Iraq

This facade group is used to brand militia rocket and drone attacks on Turkish targets in Iraq.

Jul 29, 2022

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Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights
Eric Feely

◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Turkey’s War in Northern Iraq: By the Numbers

Ankara is fighting a lethal and largely hidden counterinsurgency against PKK elements across the border, but the conflict’s rising profile may carry high costs for both U.S. interests and Iraqi sovereignty.

Jul 28, 2022

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Michael Knights

Russian President Putin and Iranian President Raisi meet in Tehran in 2022 - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

Russia and Iran Keep Growing Closer

Given their proven capacity for jointly disrupting Western imperatives in the Middle East, both countries should increasingly be treated as part of the same strategic set.

Jul 26, 2022

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Anna Borshchevskaya

Sabereen News threat to Istanbul - cropped

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Claiming Without Claiming: Iraqi Militia Responses to Turkish Attacks

Sabereen News has been operating as the clearinghouse for coverage of "resistance" strikes on Turkish targets, nodding to specific facade groups and hinting at future attacks inside Turkey.

Jul 22, 2022

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Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik

◆ Militia Spotlight

Turkish President Erdogan at a summit with Russian President Putin in Sochi in 2021 - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Will the Putin-Erdogan-Raisi Summit Spark a Turkish Incursion into Syria?

Moscow and Tehran may well assent to another cross-border operation, but Turkey’s choice of targets will depend on multiple U.S., Russian, and Iranian interests.

Jul 18, 2022

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Soner Cagaptay
Andrew J. Tabler

President Joe Biden meets Palestinian Authority President Abbas in July 2022

Articles & Testimony

From Arabs and Israelis, Biden Hears Very Different “New” Middle Easts

The Gulf capitals and Jerusalem may not agree entirely on what “regional security cooperation” means or what an anti-Iran alliance should look like, but opportunities for other types of cooperation abound.

Jul 13, 2022

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David Makovsky

Brief Analysis

Prospects for an Iranian “July Surprise” During Biden’s Gulf Trip

Tehran may see the president’s attendance at the GCC+3 summit as a tempting opportunity to scuttle a U.S.-Gulf reset, perhaps by using a cyber or military provocation to humiliate the hosts and demonstrate America’s inability to protect them.

Jul 11, 2022

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Michael Eisenstadt

Israel's Foreign Minister Yair Lapid in the Knesset chamber in Jerusalem on June 30, 2022 - Source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

What Biden and Lapid Have in Common

Their political temperaments and policy priorities are a good match, but this chemistry does not guarantee progress on Iranian and Palestinian issues during an election year.

Jul 8, 2022

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David Makovsky

Photo showing 1983 terrorist attack at U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut, Lebanon.

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Don’t Look Down: The Struggle Over Lebanon’s Airspace

To avoid past mistakes and counter the most potent threat on its borders, Israel requires an accurate intelligence picture in Lebanon, but Iran and Hezbollah risk destabilizing the situation by chipping away at the IDF’s air superiority.

Jul 7, 2022

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Assaf Orion

An Iranian soldier wearing an IRGC uniform salutes in front of an Iranin flag - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

The United States Needs a Better Strategy to Deter Iran

A “more for more” agreement might be possible, but only if Iranian leaders are genuinely afraid of what they could lose without one.

Jul 6, 2022

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Dennis Ross

Middle East aerial map, binoculars (Hebrew)

Maps & Graphics

In-Depth Reports

Countering Iran's Regional Strategy (Hebrew)

A Long-Term, Comprehensive Approach

A Hebrew version of the IDF major general's strategy paper, co-published by The Washington Institute and the Institute for Policy and Strategy at Israel's Reichman University.

Jul 5, 2022

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Eyal Zamir

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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Featured experts

Farzin Nadimi

Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Fellow with The Washington Institute, is a Washington-based analyst specializing in the security and defense affairs of Iran and the Persian Gulf region.

Patrick Clawson

Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and Research Counselor at The Washington Institute.

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Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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