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Great Power Competition

Policy Analysis on Great Power Competition

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Illustration of chess pieces and the Russian and Ukrainian flags - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Middle Eastern Ambivalence Toward Russia and Ukraine
An in-depth look at how regional states have responded to Putin's invasion of Ukraine—by their actions as much as their words.
Oct 10, 2023
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Iraqi PM al-Sudani
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Iraqi Officials Eye a Path for Chinese-Iraqi Development
In Iraq, the precarious reality and confused relationships seem to have driven al-Sudani’s government to attempt to circumvent the traditional binary choice between Washington and Moscow. This new course comes with a distinct and flashy name, the “Development Road” project, and looks to Beijing as a third way forward.
Sep 28, 2023
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  • Baraa Sabri
View of the Nile in Cairo
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Egyptian Media Reflections on Egypt’s Accession to BRICS
Although joining BRICS is an exciting economic prospect for many governments, the addition of new member states has not been without controversy. In Egypt, news of the nation’s accession to this institution has fueled a heated internal media debate on the feasibility of the move and its impact on the deteriorating economic situation in Egypt.
Sep 28, 2023
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  • Mohamed Abdelaziz
Articles & Testimony
The Future of Homeland Security: Addressing the Rise of Terrorism in Africa
While finding ways to fill the vacuum left by the withdrawal of French forces, Washington and its allies must not forget that counterterrorism and great power competition with Russia are inextricably linked in these conflict zones.
Sep 27, 2023
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  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Islamic State forces, in convoy formation, declare allegiance to new caliph, 2023.
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Exploiting a "Vast Jihad Arena":
The Islamic State Takes Territory in Mali
The offensive occurred amid a deteriorating security situation across the Sahel that will require creative U.S. responses.
Sep 26, 2023
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  • Aaron Y. Zelin
  • Sarah Cahn
Articles & Testimony
Nagorno-Karabakh’s Perpetual Conflict Shows Soviet Union Still Crumbling
The conflict over Karabakh had been the longest-running in the post-Soviet space, with major implications for Moscow's strategic mindset in Ukraine and other regions.
Sep 25, 2023
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Russian sailors parade with their national and Navy flags in the port of Sevastopol in occupied Crimea - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Understanding Russia’s War on Ukraine Starts with Understanding Russia’s Black Sea Politics
Putin views the Black Sea as an important springboard for projecting power into the Middle East, Europe, and the Mediterranean, and the West should push back accordingly.
Sep 20, 2023
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Thumbnail of infographic detailing Iran's oil exports - source: The Washington Institute
Maps & Graphics
Articles & Testimony
Infographic: A Visual Guide to Iran’s Soaring Oil Exports
New data-rich graphics strikingly illustrate the growth in Tehran’s oil revenue and China’s outsize role in fueling this trend.
Sep 15, 2023
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  • Henry Rome
  • Noam Raydan
President Joe Biden walks past flags of the member states at a G20 meeting - source: The White House
Articles & Testimony
Biden’s G20 Optimism Won’t Stave Off a Potential Oil Crisis
Because the Saudis and other oil players hold more leverage than the administration may care to admit, prices could balloon once again.
Sep 11, 2023
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  • Simon Henderson
AR UAE importance
Articles & Testimony
BRICS Invites the UAE—Another Sign That the Multipolar World Is Here
The bloc’s simultaneous offer of membership to six additional countries shows that middle powers from the Middle East are emerging as key global players.
Aug 24, 2023
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  • Nickolay Mladenov
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Palestinians More Positive on Abraham Accords and Open to Vying Powers Than Arab Neighbors
Results from a new public opinion poll conducted in Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem show key differences between Palestinian attitudes and those of respondents elsewhere in the Arab world when it comes to relations with Israel and the roles of the United States, China, Russia, and other regional powers.
Aug 23, 2023
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  • Frances McDonough
A United States Air Force trainer works with soldiers of the Nigerian Armed Forces - source: U.S. government
Brief Analysis
Niger Coup Threatens U.S. Strategy on Counterterrorism and Russia
An entrenched military junta could jeopardize America’s primary CT partner in West Africa, create ripple effects for security beyond the Sahel, and give Russia’s Wagner Group a new opening on the continent.
Aug 16, 2023
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  • Ben Fishman
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Crown Prince Muhammad and President Xi walking in Riyadh.
Brief Analysis
Closing Washington’s China Gap with Middle East Partners
For the first time in decades, America’s top strategic priority diverges from that of its key regional partners, but Washington can close the gap by increasing their understanding of China and removing the blinders from their threat perceptions.
Aug 14, 2023
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  • Michael Singh
Crown Prince Muhammad and President Xi walking in Riyadh.
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
How a Small Saudi City Explains China’s Role in the Saudi-Iran Agreement
China's recent mediation efforts between Riyadh and Tehran were motivated by a combination of strategic outlook and economic interest in the Middle East, signaling a gradual shift away from its traditional "free-riding" approach.
Jul 31, 2023
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  • Essa Nahari
The logo of the Russian mercinary force The Wagner Group on an office door in Moscow - source: Reuters
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The Wagner Group in Syria: Profiting Off Failed States
Despite discord between the Wagner Group and the Russian government, the entrenched economic and military engagement of Wagner forces in Syria is unlikely to change soon.
Jul 21, 2023
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  • Emad Bouzo
Brief Analysis
On Syria Aid, Don’t Bet on the Security Council
Seventeen Russian vetoes have hobbled the council’s ability to keep humanitarian assistance flowing, so Washington and its allies should look to the General Assembly instead—or take matters into their own hands on the Turkish border.
Jul 19, 2023
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  • Andrew J. Tabler
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Ukrainian soldier beside destroyed Russian tank in Novodarivka, Ukraine
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
How Russia's Invasion of Ukraine Is Reshaping the Global Arms Market:
Implications for the Middle East and Beyond
As Moscow grapples with battlefield losses and other challenges, traditional Russian clients are considering alternative sources, emerging exporters are amplifying their sales pitches, and governments are building up their domestic defense industrial bases.
Jul 17, 2023
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  • Grant Rumley
  • Louis Dugit-Gros
Mecca
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Saudi Survey Says: Nearly Half Back “Moderate Islam”; Few Support Internal Protests or War with Iran
Saudi minds have become considerably more open to a modern version of Islam since this question was first asked in 2017.
Jul 14, 2023
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  • David Pollock
  • Daniel Chodorow
The logo of the Russian mercinary force The Wagner Group on an office door in Moscow - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Wagner vs. Russia’s Defense Ministry in the Middle East
Russia’s domestic military crisis could hold significant consequences for its regional operations, from heightening the risk of clashes with U.S. forces in Syria to putting a public face on its destabilizing activities in Libya.
Jun 29, 2023
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
  • Ben Fishman
  • Andrew J. Tabler
The logo of the Russian mercinary force The Wagner Group on an office door in Moscow - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Iranian Reactions to the Wagner Standoff in Russia
Iranian officials are keenly aware that Putin’s crisis parallels their own vulnerabilities, so they will likely step up their efforts to cement the bilateral security relationship and obtain Russian weapons and technology.
Jun 28, 2023
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi

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Supported by the

Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle East

The Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle East focuses on the region as a setting for heightened competition between the United States and other world powers, such as China and Russia.

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Featured experts

Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley is the Meisel-Goldberger Senior Fellow and Director of the Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle East at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Anna Borshchevskaya
Anna Borshchevskaya
Anna Borshchevskaya is the Harold Grinspoon Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute, focusing on Russia's policy toward the Middle East.
Michael Singh
Michael Singh
Michael Singh is the Managing Director and Lane-Swig Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute.
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