Syria

A top intelligence official discusses domestic radicalization, the AUKUS crisis, potential Afghanistan fallout, and other key security issues, emphasizing the need for strong U.S.-French cooperation.

The international community stepped up to the ISIS challenge but has failed miserably to address the multifaceted problems presented by Assad, whose regime has worked with the terrorist group on and off for years.

The SDF has made remarkable progress in its anti-IS operations while Assad’s forces have stagnated, but the coalition and its local partners must still prepare for a renewed terrorist threat on their exposed southern flank.

To avoid the worst outcomes, Washington needs to assiduously enforce any deals with the new Afghan leadership, cooperate effectively with other world powers, and explain to a domestic audience how the withdrawal will facilitate a focus on different priorities.

Regional mistakes and setbacks stretching back to the Carter administration did not stop countries from relying on Washington, and the Kabul crisis will be no different in the end.

Ironically, the Syrian jihadist group now acts much like a typical Middle Eastern regime, from the way it mobilizes local support to the abuses it commits against those who oppose its rule.

By redeploying their military and proxy forces, boosting Assad’s political campaigns, and resorting to various local intimidation tactics, the two countries are increasingly working together on establishing full control in Deir al-Zour.

Washington needs a special envoy to develop a coherent, intelligence-supported political strategy aimed at isolating Assad, limiting his facilitators, and enabling humanitarian NGOs.

In their view, the regime remains vulnerable to widening political rifts, nationalist grumbling among military officers, and heightened U.S.-Israeli concerns about Iranian domination.