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Syria

Policy Analysis on Syria

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Brief Analysis
Keeping Down a Diminished Islamic State:
The Prospect of an October Surprise Attack
The relatively low risk underscores the importance of Washington’s continued pressure to curtail the jihadist group’s strike capability outside its areas of operation.
Oct 20, 2020
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  • Ido Levy
In-Depth Reports
Prospects for Syrian Kurdish Unity: Assessing Local and Regional Dynamics
In October 2019, the U.S. troop withdrawal and subsequent Turkish invasion of northern Syria upended Kurdish plans in the region. But a year later, the major Syrian Kurdish rivals—the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and Kurdish National Council (KNC)—are coming together after a lengthy estrangement. This past June, representatives from the
Oct 19, 2020
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  • Sirwan Kajjo
Articles & Testimony
UAE-Israel Peace Is Revealing the Middle East’s Faultlines
Much of the commentary surrounding the deal has focused on what it portends for the Palestinian issue and other Israeli relationships, but it may say just as much about the four rival factions that have crystallized in the region since 2011.
Sep 26, 2020
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  • Sarah Feuer
Articles & Testimony
Franco-Turkish Competition Ascendant
Given their sharply diverging views on conflict zones, secularism, and regional spheres of influence, the two states are swiftly becoming NATO’s next diplomatic hotspot.
Sep 23, 2020
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  • Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
The Russian Way of War in Syria: Threat Perception and Approaches to Counterterrorism
Putin’s Russia and the West have never shared the same goals or threat perceptions regarding terrorism and other regional issues, so Washington should craft its Syria policy accordingly.
Sep 10, 2020
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Articles & Testimony
Living Long Enough to See Yourself Become the Villain: The Case of Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi
Recent developments in Syria indicate that the jihadi movement is splitting once again, as a prominent ideologue begins to form a third pole at odds with both al-Qaeda and the Islamic State.
Sep 9, 2020
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  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
Russian-Iranian Tensions in Deir al-Zour
To prevent the two rivals from expanding their influence in east Syria, the coalition needs to exploit their simmering disunity, empower its partners on the ground, and establish stronger ties with select tribal and community leaders.
Sep 4, 2020
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  • Oula A. Alrifai
  • Ali Alleile
Articles & Testimony
Why Instability in Belarus, Khabarovsk, and Lebanon Creates Problems Putin Doesn’t Want
Current events in Lebanon may seem remote compared to protests closer to Russia, but the situation in Beirut directly affects Moscow’s policy in Syria and its evolving status as a regional player.
Aug 27, 2020
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Russian president Vladimir Putin
Brief Analysis
Russia Aims to Preserve the Status Quo in Lebanon
Although state officials and media have expressed somewhat nuanced views on the Beirut disaster and subsequent protests, most of their comments boil down to preventing deeper U.S. involvement and safeguarding Moscow’s interests in the current power structure.
Aug 12, 2020
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Articles & Testimony
Moscow and Ankara Will Continue Uneasy Cooperation
Putin set a trap for Erdogan long ago, and because the Turkish leader woke up too late to his predicament, he now has little leverage in the unequal bilateral relationship.
Aug 6, 2020
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Brief Analysis
The Kurdish Role in Russia’s Middle East Power Play
As Moscow continues to intervene in regional conflicts, politics, and energy affairs, Washington should not underestimate its deep-rooted relationships with Kurdish groups in various countries.
Jul 29, 2020
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iran-Syria Air Defense Pact Could Disrupt Allied Operations
Despite domestic challenges, major technical hurdles, and ongoing Israeli military interdiction, Iran still aims to transfer potent air defense systems to fellow ‘axis of resistance’ members and interconnect them.
Jul 24, 2020
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  • Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
East Mediterranean Energy Rivalries Face Harsh Economic Realities
Even if acute diplomatic differences are resolved, low natural gas prices will have a cooling effect on regional energy initiatives.
Jul 17, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
The Role of the Military in Russian Politics and Foreign Policy Over the Past 20 Years
The Kremlin’s interventions in Syria and elsewhere are just one part of its society-wide efforts to bolster Putin’s domestic standing via the security sphere.
Jul 2, 2020
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Brief Analysis
The Fragile Status Quo in Northeast Syria
The mixed Kurdish-Arab zone could buckle under any number of security, health, and economic threats, especially if the United States surrenders to Russian and Turkish interests by withdrawing its remaining forces.
Jul 1, 2020
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  • Fabrice Balanche
Brief Analysis
Merging Talks on Northeast Syria with a Whole-of-Country Approach
Deeper Turkish engagement with the Syrian Kurds would be helpful, but any such talks need to be linked with ongoing efforts to contain the Islamic State and advance the UN’s broader Geneva process.
Jun 25, 2020
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  • Jomana Qaddour
  • Cansu Camlibel
Multimedia
Brief Analysis
Is Regime Collapse on Syria's Horizon? Evaluating Assad's Grip on Power
A State Department official explains the latest sanctions against entities that do business with Assad, while two experts assess the regime’s current status and its susceptibility to foreign pressure.
Jun 22, 2020
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  • Joel Rayburn
  • Oula A. Alrifai
  • Sam Dagher
Brief Analysis
Russia’s Military Activity in the East Mediterranean Echoes Its Approach to Syria
Although Moscow would face many challenges if it tries to establish permanent offensive and A2AD capabilities in Libya like it has in Syria, its covert actions thus far show a commitment to playing the long game against NATO in the East Mediterranean.
Jun 17, 2020
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Brief Analysis
The Caesar Act Comes Into Force (Part 2): Pressuring Hezbollah in Lebanon
In addition to targeting Hezbollah and other local actors who support the Assad regime and harm Lebanon’s economy, the new U.S. legislation can help bolster Beirut’s sovereignty.
Jun 12, 2020
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  • Hanin Ghaddar
Brief Analysis
The Caesar Act Comes Into Force (Part 1): Increasing the Assad Regime’s Isolation
New Syria sanctions signal bipartisan support for continued diplomatic isolation and economic coercion, but their impact ultimately depends on whether the executive branch is willing to prioritize the issue.
Jun 11, 2020
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  • Dana Stroul
  • Katherine Bauer

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Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics

The Washington Institute's Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics focuses on social, political, and economic developments in the Arab world, with an emphasis on the Arab countries of the Levant.

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Featured experts

Andrew J. Tabler
Andrew J. Tabler
Andrew J. Tabler is the Martin J. Gross Senior Fellow in the Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, where he focuses on Syria and U.S. policy in the Levant.
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley is the Meisel-Goldberger Senior Fellow and Director of the Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle East at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
David Schenker
David Schenker
David Schenker is the Taube Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and director of the Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics. He is the former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs.
Elizabeth Dent - source: The Washington Institute
Elizabeth Dent
Elizabeth Dent is a Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where she focuses on U.S. foreign and defense policy toward the Gulf states, Iraq, and Syria.
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